"Big Oil's big dreams are close to coming true." ----Ben Lando, United Press International's energy editor
The door to Iraq's oil opensIraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani
By M K Bhadrakumar
February 16, 2008
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....Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani was on the way to becoming a celebrity in the West. ..... Shahristani finds himself in an enviable position as a creator of wealth for the Western world. He holds the key to the door that opens out to the magical world of Iraqi oil. ..... And Shahristani is visibly getting ready to negotiate the contracts for Iraq's "super giants". In the idiom of Big Oil, "super giants" are fields with at least five billion barrels of oil in reserve. ..... the above underscores why any plan to hasten the US effort to achieve greater oil independence translates in political terms as taking control of Iraq's oil reserves. ..... it boils down to the 20 words that the former US Federal Bank chief Alan Greenspan wrote towards the end of his memoir, The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World, "I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: The Iraq war is largely about oil."
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A major impediment has been the dangerous security situation within Iraq. But a significant US achievement in recent months has been the end of much of the fighting inside Iraq. Clearly, the US has bought off large segments of the Iraqi insurgency. ..... The Bush administration is leaning on Shahristani not to wait for the fractious Iraqi Parliament to approve the Iraqi oil law that would have provided a legal framework for foreign investment in the oil industry. As the first step, the executives of some of the world's oil majors have been meeting with Iraqi Oil Ministry officials since January 24 in Amman, Jordan, for discussing the terms of technical support contracts, which are in the nature of shorter-term deals. ..... In sum, as Ben Lando, United Press International's energy editor put it, "Big Oil's big dreams are close to coming true ... Shell, ..... BP ..... BHP Billiton ..... ExxonMobil ..... Dome and Anadarko Petroleum. ConocoPhillips .... Chevron and Total ...
No doubt, it is pay-off time for the four majors who didn't make an issue of the US military occupation of Iraq or the ensuing mess-ups during Paul Bremer's rule or the ensuing acute security situation, .....
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Iraqi public opposition
Of course, Shahristani is skating on thin ice. His moves, despite the robust backing by the Bush administration, are political and highly controversial. The point is, Shahristani is virtually in a position to hand out jackpots to the oil majors. ..... Washington counts on Shahristani to push the oil deals through despite the vehement opposition within Iraq. First, about 70% of Iraqis firmly oppose what Shahristani is attempting. The Iraqis see what is happening as a capitulation of their national sovereignty. Iraqis look back at the nationalization of their oil industry in 1972 as a source of pride and empowerment. Second, there is vehement opposition from the labor unions in the Iraqi oil industry. They say that Iraq could increase its oil production by investing its own money and there is no pressing need at this juncture to solicit foreign investment. .....Iraq's oil exports in 2007 brought in $35.5 billion, according to the US State Department. But a study by the Washington Times newspaper in January concluded, "Increased oil revenues stemming from high prices and improved security are piling up in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rather than being spent on needed reconstruction projects."
..... (Hassan Jumaa Awad, president of the umbrella Iraqi Federation of Oil Unions) alleged that Shahristani is following a "deliberate" policy of shunning domestic investment with a view to make Iraqi oil workers look incapable. The labor unions have now sought the help of the international labor community to their demands, which also question Shahristani's intentions in awarding to international oil firms concession or risk contracts such as production-sharing agreements. Awad calls for an Iraqi oil law, "but we need to gain our full sovereignty before such a law is enacted", and he insists that if a law is to be passed, it should be approved by Iraqi voters in a referendum.
Iraq's oil unions and civil society organizations have joined hands in alleging that Washington and the present authorities in Baghdad, especially the Oil Ministry, are conspiring to hand over control over Iraq's oil to oil majors. The news agencies reported that protesters who fear that Iraq's oil wealth might be squandered met at a Middle East oil conference on February 5 in London where Iraqi and British oil industry leaders attended.
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But George W. Bush is not concerned in the least with what the Iraqi people want.
He is not concerned in the least with what the American people so desperately need to cope with his orchestrated economic collapse, his deliberate neglect after Hurricane Katrina, the unconscionable loss of our soldiers in his farce of a war and his premeditated murder of the US Constitution.
He is no different from a desperate addict, determined to destroy himself, family, country, international relations and our Earth's future, just to swill once more at the petroleum pit.
He has trashed Iraq and America with both bloody hands, with greed as his only god.
Bush's Iraq legacy
But the Bush administration's priorities lie elsewhere. It is highly unlikely to pay heed to Iraqi public sentiments. There is precious little time left for the Bush administration in the White House. But it's not just pork-barrel politics, either. There is also the aspect of the legacy of the Bush administration. With the Iraqi "surge" having proved a success, Bush is undoubtedly gearing up for the epitaph to his Iraq odyssey.
Big Oil deals in Iraq form the core of Bush's strategy of creating a legacy for the US in the Middle East that may run for decades. Big Oil needs the assurance of a near-permanent US military presence in Iraq. And Bush is determined to provide that assurance. He is convinced that no serious American politician would defy the wishes of Big Oil. By logic, therefore, Bush is creating a historical legacy of an Iraq that will remain under American control for decades to come.
Therefore, the Op-Ed in The Washington Post on Wednesday jointly authored by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is extraordinary for its thumb sketch of what Bush's Iraq legacy is going to look like. The two top officials have written that a "crucial phase" is about to begin with the US negotiating a basic framework agreement with the Iraqi government aimed at "normalized relations".
By the end of this year, the Bush administration proposes to altogether dispense with the fig leaf of the current requirement that the United Nations must authorize on an annual basis the presence and role of the US military in Iraq under the relevant UN resolutions. Rice and Gates argue that the Bush administration "would rather have an arrangement that is more in line with what typically governs the relationships between two sovereign nations". Period.
The US-Iraqi framework agreement to be negotiated seeks to establish "a strong relationship with Iraq, reflecting our (US) shared political, economic, cultural and security interests". In other words, Washington will have ensured that US policies in Iraq are sequestered from the purview of the UN once the US-Iraqi framework agreement is through by the end of the year. Concerned parties like Russia (or China) will simply be faced with the fait accompli of what the US chooses to do with Iraq.
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What becomes evident is that the Bush administration neither intends to cut and run from Iraq nor is it in search of an exit strategy. On the contrary, it is ensuring that Iraq remains under American control for as long as it takes for the US to evacuate the oil and gas out of that country. Bush sees this as his historical legacy. ..... Ideally, Washington would like to promote a Turkey-Israel-India energy grid that could tap into the Iraqi reserves. This approach also fits in with the US geostrategy of developing Turkey, Israel and India as three "pivotal" states that are Washington's natural allies in the regions surrounding the volatile Middle East. ..... Turkey is now poised to be a conduit for energy supplies from northern Iraq to Israel. Israel already enjoys strong influence in the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq. Thus, there is a tremendous convergence of interests between Turkey and Israel over issues of Israel's energy security.
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