A Nomination Worth Winning,,,

[Fabio]

In simplest terms, It seems to me that Senator Obama is running his campaign to preserve his best chance of winning a nomination worth having -- meaning one where his words/actions during the primary appeal to the broadest slice of american voters. He has to do it in definitive terms so that there is no misbroadcast through the media. This despite the fact that he must know his tone and words will turn off many angry/active dems. Also understand that he knows full well that he starts in the eyes of the public as a young, charismatic black man and politician, folks who historically have been charactured in the minds of the easily prejudiced (apparently 50% of the country in 2004!). For this, I think we should offer some understanding.

On the flip side, Senator Edwards is obviously throwing the most primary red meat out there to attract hard core dems -- this to me means I think he is making the most promises he cant keep or enact, which is rule 1 for politics and me. Nonetheless, although I am frequently at odds with them, I think the passion of JRE supporters on DU, elsewhere on the web, and on the street speaks for itself. Furthermore, despite running a populist campaign that promises univeral healthcare and other big progressive goals that are frequently perceived as too expensive, JRE has for six years polled competitively in national head to heads versus republicans. There is lots of data to support his general electability. But still, my gut tells me that the way this world (read media) works now, his words/actions now would damage our chances in November.

HRC -- it's a little different. She's instantly relevant because of who she is and the money she raised, and I think she has performed far beyond (my) expectations during this entire race. She is in command of the facts and tireless. Her strategy in running for president is more similar to that of Obama's than that of Edwards, and is an extension of her voting record in the Senate. Centrist in tone, rarely too bold, but thoughtful. (Let's pass on the IWR debate here). Unfortunately, I dont think the Clinton camp, the media or anyone can possibly assess how many of these centrist voters really are up for grabs in a HRC versus White Male GOPer race. I just don't know. Since campaigns are just big integrated marketing campaigns, I guess you always feel you can persuade. But the Clinton's face a visceral challenge with many of these voters -- not because HRC is a woman -- but because the Clintons were the evil, liberal empire to the old 'them' for 8 years in the 1990s. Anyhow, I think its too bad for Hillary that she hasn't run a more red meat, progressive campaign-- to see her relationship with parts of the base fracture is sort of sad. Love her or hate her, she was a real champion in the 1990s.

Thoughts?

[Fabio]

1. Not 1 post?

I guess it was too long.