Hillary not working hard for South Carolina, Conceding to Obama? Leaves state.

[Dems Will Win]

Hil has conceded SC to Obama, leaving for California...

SC will give Obama the perfect setup for Feb. 5, going in with more elected delegates than Clinton. This will allow him to split Feb 5 with her then take most states after that (which favor him) OH will settle it in March then. She's making a huge mistake IMHO. Buh-bye Hillary!

A source in the Clinton campaign confirms that Hillary Clinton will be spending most of the week before the South Carolina primary in states other than South Carolina.

She’s expected to spend Tuesday in California and Arizona, and New Mexico. Wednesday she will be in New Mexico and New Jersey and probably New York. And on Friday, she will return to South Carolina, a day before the primary here.

The Clinton campaign clearly sees difficult odds in South Carolina, and has decided to spend much of its time and resources this week in Feb. 5-voting states. At the same time, they are not writing it off completely: Bill and Chelsea Clinton will be campaigning here tomorrow.

UPDATE: Wolfson calls in to say that she’s going to be here on Thursday, too.

http://www.observer.com/2008/hillary-leaving-south-carolina-bill-and-chelsea

Well, her being there Thurs and Friday will help but she still should not leave tomorrow and Wednesday, big mistake. Obama starts rolling through the white suburbs with big crowds and he will take some Edwards voters away too and rack up the Indies.

[aquart]

1. I should hope so.

If he can't take South Carolina...yeeks.

[Lucinda]

2. Bill and Chelsea are in SC. They'll do fine.

[TwilightZone]

3. Nice misinterpretation. She's not conceding.

Bill and Chelsea are still campaigning there, as is quite clear in the article you quoted.

[ccpup]

4. Obama will win SC with a strong african-american vote

so Hillary is going to spend her time focusing on the bigger delegate prizes of CA, NJ and NY where she has substantial leads in the Polls.

With Bill and Chelsea in SC, I don't believe she's conceding the State, but I do think she realizes that the 45 delegates SC has can easily be made up for with the 441 in CA, the 127 in New Jersey and the 281 in New York.

[MADem]

7. I have different CA and NJ totals than you do--are you including those at-largers?

Or am I missing something? Hell, I like your numbers better!!!!

South Carolina: 45 delegates.

California: 370 delegates

New York: 281 delegates

New Jersey: 107 delegates

[ccpup]

9. you may be right

I saw those numbers you offered, but found the different numbers I used which may include the at-largers. Thank you for the correction.

[MADem]

12. You might be right--I got my numbers from the state party sites, but

they're notorious for sloppy updating, at times.

NYT has these Super Tuesday numbers, and they match yours:

Alabama Primary 60 delegates
Alaska Caucus 18 delegates
Arizona Primary 67 delegates
Arkansas Primary 47 delegates
California Primary 441 delegates
Colorado Caucus 71 delegates
Connecticut Primary 60 delegates
Delaware Primary 23 delegates
Georgia Primary 103 delegates
Idaho Caucus 23 delegates
Illinois Primary 185 delegates
Kansas Caucus 41 delegates
Massachusetts Primary 121 delegates
Minnesota Caucus 88 delegates
Missouri Primary 88 delegates
New Jersey Primary 127 delegates
New Mexico Caucus 38 delegates
New York Primary 281 delegates
North Dakota Caucus 21 delegates
Oklahoma Primary 47 delegates
Tennessee Primary 85 delegates
Utah Primary 29 delegates
Democrats Abroad Primary 11 delegates

Total 2075
Like I said, I like yours better!

[ccpup]

13. and current Polls show Obama leading in only 3 of those States

by margins of 2 to 4 points. Hillary is generally strong everywhere else.

(edited to add that he leads in his Home State of Illinois by a very large margin)

[MADem]

18. I'd hope that the home states go to their respective candidates, when ya think about it

Of course, on the GOP side, I hope McCain or Bozo the Clown wins MA...I want Mitt to have his ass handed to him in the Bay State...

[Hutzpa]

25. I will go for McCain

instead of Bozo the clown, Bozo seems to be too oily,

I don't trust him. Either one will do fine.

}(

[surfermaw]

5. Don't underestimate Bill Clinton, remember N.H and the college kids

[MADem]

6. That should thrill the Obama supporters. Clearly, she's figuring that

the trend is with him and Edwards.

Time is a commodity. CA is a big prize. So are NY and NJ.

It isn't up to you how she spends her time. I'd wager her internal pollsters have a pretty good idea of the realities on the ground. Obama supporters ought to be overjoyed, instead of carping at her for making a realistic assessment.

Look at the numbers:

South Carolina: 45 delegates.

California: 370 delegates

New York: 281 delegates

New Jersey: 107 delegates

[Ravy]

8. That will minimize her loss. (How it will be played). She skipped it. nt

[ccpup]

10. as well as Obama having the advantage in the Polls

going into it and the heavy African-American vote (80% of which he captured in Nevada). I don't expect him to get a sizable bump in the Feb 5th States because of his win here. It's kind of already accepted that SC is one he's sure to win, therefore no "surprise" victory to bounce off of.

[Ravy]

11. That is the bad part about being "expected" to win.

People will yawn and say that was "expected", if you do win. People will say you are "finished" if you don't.

[ccpup]

15. it does take away some of the oomph of the win

if the Media is already billing it as a definite win for Obama. Compare that to the news cycle after Hillary's surprise win in NH or her less-surprising (if one reads the Polls) win in Nevada.

Obama's win in SC may be met with elation by his Campaign, but with a nonchalant shrug by everyone else. Not exactly the kind of momentum he needs to change the Poll numbers in the 22 States voting on Feb 5th ... where he only leads in three by anywhere from 2 to 4 points (except for his Home State Illinois where he has a strong lead).

[MADem]

19. CBS recited a poll tonight that had him in a major "double digit" lead

He's been working the state pretty aggressively, too, so it really isn't surprising that the polls have him in front.

[ccpup]

22. he'll win SC

and try to spin it into something resembling momentum. But the window between SC and the Feb 5th States is just way too small for one win -- and expected one, at that -- to have any demonstrable effect on the voters. If I were Obama and had double digit leads in SC, I'd be hightailing it to CA, NY, NJ and MO to start making up ground.

Remains to be seen if his campaign is that smart. Perhaps they really ARE worried about Bill on the ground in SC and are remaining there to continue their fight with him while Hillary plays it smart and consolidates her formidable leads in the Big States?

[MADem]

29. Bingo. It's all about getting those local, six o'clock news bits. NT

[cooolandrew]

32. That's the way to do it Barack. My candidate. =)

[Little Star]

23. SC is already his. She is right to spend her time elsewhere.

There is no level playing field for her there. Let him have it.

[ccpup]

26. I agree

She's a brilliant tactician and is absolutely doing the right thing. I just don't know why -- with a double digit lead -- he's still in the State shaking hands! Not that I'm complaining, but his time and resources could be better spent elsewhere.

Unless, of course, his internal polls are showing soft support and he's truly afraid of the effect Bill and Chelsea may have as they go door-to-door.

Hmmmmmm ... :think:

[K Gardner]

14. This is not surprising, given that her campaign has framed it now as a "race advantage" state for

Obama. They marginalize him as being a black candidate for black voters only by doing this. Once again, insidiously clever and divisive on the part of the Clinton Machine.

[ccpup]

16. I don't see where she's wrong with that.

There's every indication that the black vote -- comprising nearly half of the voting bloc in SC -- is expected to go very strongly for Obama (as it did in Nevada) and, because of this, he's expected to win the Primary. How is it insidious or divisive? It's a fact.

[cali]

17. I think it's clear that's been their strategy for some time.

They're intent on boxing him in and painting him as a "black candidate" while he struggles to be a candidate who's black. The fucking worst thing about it, is that they're idiocy may lose us the general. We need African American voters to win, and the Clinton's seem to assume that everything will just be hunky dory after she wins. I doubt it. God, they're really something.

[K Gardner]

20. You know, Cali, if her supporters encourage and support this - which they do - and the

American people don't see it for what it is, then I hate to say we deserve to lose this election. Which we most certainly will if this continues.

[ccpup]

21. I don't see where the african-american vote is going to desert her

should she be the Nominee. I understand you may HOPE that's so, but the reality of it will be far different.

The Clintons have done much too much to help the black community over the years for them to abandon her because she's the Nominee and not Obama. They're not stupid, that's for sure.

[cali]

31. Actually, not. I hope no such thing,

But I do think that the wounds of the racial divide are far more acute than many realize. It has nothing to do with stupidity. It has to do with pain and anger. I don't anything for certain. But you certainly don't either. Now shouldn't you return to your rather de trop little hobby?

[undeterred]

24. Gee, doesn't she have a job that requires her to be in Washington?

[ccpup]

27. as does he

but I'm sure he'll phone in a Present Vote if anything comes up. :evilgrin:

[undeterred]

28. Can Senators do that?

One more thing that is totally screwed up about the way we select presidents... they have to have important jobs that they basically stop doing for longer and longer periods of time before the election.

[ccpup]

30. it depends on the Senator

and the issues currently in the Senate.

It's not uncommon for Senators to hightail it back to DC to make important votes (Obama missed the Kyle-Lieberman Iran vote due to campaigning in the Northeast and Hillary missed a vote -- I forget for what -- due to Bill's open-heart surgery) and for the Leadership in the Senate to give them ample heads-up when something like that is imminent.