For the "ABC" Crowd: - Obama and Edwards must stay til Denver

[Laura PourMeADrink]

On the Monday before NH I remember hearing on Talk Left that Hillary was
calling her superdelegates and asking them not to switch allegiances until
the convention. (FYI Super-delegate list http://demconwatch.blogspot.com )

At that point, I assumed it was all about the Obama-mania that was sweeping
the country.

But something else happened the day before. As posted by Deep ModemMom,
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Democrat John Edwards said Sunday he will stay in the presidential race through the party's convention in late August, even if he fails to win any of the early presidential primary states. "This is the call of my life, and I have no intention of stopping," Edwards said on ABC's This Week. "I'm in this through the convention and to the White House."

Now I am thinking that the Clintons figured out on that day that there would be
no way that they could win the nomination on the first ballot in Denver if both Obama and Edwards
both stayed in the race.

Logically, The same would have to be true for Edwards or Obama if they both stayed in. For either of them to win on a second ballot, they need to align themselves together and agree to do everything in their power to move their delegates to whomever is ahead at that point. That is, if the ultimate goal is to have our nominee be ABC. Til then, it is advantageous for Obama to have Edwards pick up as many delegates as possible away from Clinton. For Edwards, he needs to pick up more than Obama.

[skipos]

1. But Obama's and Edwards' delegates could ignore them, right?

Lets say Obama and Edwards make the deal to "align themselves together and agree to do everything in their power to move their delegates to whomever is ahead at that point." Can't their delegates ignore them and switch to triangulatin' Hil anyway?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Yes, they can. And if all this happens, she will be strong-arming

big time. But, if say Edwards drops out now, with few delegates, she probably has a better chance of picking up what she needs to win on the first ballot - especially with her super-delegate support.

On the second ballot, you are right Edwards or Obama delegates can do whatever they want. Hillary will be there, for sure. At that point either Obama will be the closest to her -- or Edwards will. And unless either of them are ahead of her at that point - they will both need each other. Since Edwards is in til the convention, it makes sense now to support each other - praise each other - and each work toward siphoning off as many Clinton delegates as possible.

Just my take.

[skipos]

6. Interesting. I am definitely ABC.

And fortunately, I like both Obama and Edwards.

[davidwparker]

2. Absolutely. So, don't switch your votes to the "frontrunner of the week." We

want a brokered convention. If you haven't been to your primary yet, vote your #1. If you caucus and have viability rules, switch to an underdog. Let's fight this out at the convention.

K&R.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Exactly ! And for the ABC candidate - may the best man win !

[SammyWinstonJack]

3. K&R