any thoughts on claims on abortion drop?

[idgiehkt]

this was a story on the news tonight. My thoughts: if you look at both right-to-life and CDC stats, the drop starts during end of Reagan to Bush 1, continues through Clinton, and is now at stasis (but the only stats I can find are incompete (excluding certain states) for the last few years. I can only find one number for the number of pregnancies per year in the U.S., that being 6 million. I don't see any number comparing the number of abortions vs. the number of pregnancies yearly...one can't claim legitimate drop in abortion statistically without this number. I'm also not sure how the new abortifacients figure into this. I'm also not sure if the drop in abortion follows any drop in unintended pregnancies, being that the drop started (chronologically) with the advent of AIDS and the move to educate people about safer sex, the two could be linked. The problem is that the right-to-life forces seem to overpopulate google and I don't really trust their stats... Interestingly the rise and fall of abortion stats follows the rise and fall of fertility of baby-boomers, which is apparently a larger generation than those that followed, unless that is just an assumption on my part. One assumes that with population growth the numbers of pregnancy would increase exponentially every year. If anyone has any good links on statistics on this please post...

[Horse with no Name]

1. The morning after pill has decreased the need

But here is one piece of the puzzle. I would love to know how this ties to the economy and not having the funds for abortions.

http://www.cdc.gov/NCHS/pressroom/07newsreleases/teenbirth.htm

Teen Birth Rate Rises for First Time in 15 Years

The teen birth rate in the United States rose in 2006 for the first time since 1991, and unmarried childbearing also rose significantly, according to preliminary birth statistics released today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The statistics are featured in a new report, "Births: Preliminary Data for 2006," prepared by CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, and are based on data from over 99 percent of all births for the United States in 2006. A final report to follow will have more detailed data.

The report shows that between 2005 and 2006, the birth rate for teenagers 15-19 years rose 3 percent, from 40.5 live births per 1,000 females aged 15-19 years in 2005 to 41.9 births per 1,000 in 2006. This follows a 14-year downward trend in which the teen birth rate fell by 34 percent from its recent peak of 61.8 births per 1,000 in 1991.

>>>snip
The study also shows unmarried childbearing reached a new record high in 2006. The total number of births to unmarried mothers rose nearly 8 percent to 1,641,700 in 2006. This represents a 20 percent increase from 2002, when the recent upswing in nonmarital births began. The biggest jump was among unmarried women aged 25-29, among whom there was a 10 percent increase between 2005 and 2006.

[ismnotwasm]

2. Here a Reuters link

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. abortion rate has fallen to its lowest level since 1976, with about 20 percent of pregnancies being terminated by abortion, the nonprofit Alan Guttmacher Institute reported on Thursday.

Its survey of all known abortion providers found the abortion rate fell 9 percent between 2000 and 2005, probably due to a combination of better access to contraception and less access to abortion providers, the group said.

"Slightly more than one in five pregnancies end in abortion, indicating that unwanted pregnancy is still too common in the United States," the report reads.

The report is the first snapshot since 2000 of what remains one of the most contentious political and ethical issues in the United States -- whether women should be able to get abortions. While it remains legal, some states have passed laws designed to make it more difficult to get an abortion"

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1722176020080117

I've posted this in the pro-choice group

[idgiehkt]

8. thanks

I reallllly don't like that number starting with 2000, but I guess that is the time period of this study? What they are not saying is abortion had been falling steadily for ten years prior. I bet shrub will make some statement on this.

if you look at both of these graphics on this page, which is an anti-abortion source, abortion peaks under Bush 1 and fell through the Clinton years, continuing to fall to it's current level (the stats in the graph (on left) are CDC, the others are national right to life or guttmacher)
http://www.nrlc.org/abortion/facts/abortionstats.html

It doesn't account for the number of actual pregnancies though, for the portion of the population that was actually fertile. Most studies that claim to be 'scientific' use a ratio out of a specific number, without those reference numbers I'm not sure these claims hold any water at all.

[rocktivity]

3. A combination of more birth control and less sex

resulting in fewer unplanned pregnancies.

:headbang:
rocknation

[AlphaCentauri]

4. venereal diseases

[idgiehkt]

5. the drop does absolutely start during the advent of AIDS

this stat is eliminated from any significance from the articles I have read...I'm getting that the pro-lifers are attributing to themselves a sort of victory but from all indications it's a false one. I just would like to see some hard stats and am having a hard time finding the numbers that would indicate exactly what is going on here, only finding pro-life sources and snippets from sources that might possibly be more objective.

[idgiehkt]

7. whoops, posted this in the wrong place

moved.

[bpeale]

6. here in new mexico...

the instances of teen pregnancy are way up. so we have kids having kids, and we have a lot of young parents killing their kids & spending the rest of their lives in jail.

would i rather see abortion? no. but better abortion as an option instead of having babies raising babies. better if there were sex education instead of all this abstinence only crap that does not work.

[idgiehkt]

9. yep, this study referenced apparently ran through 2005

this is an interesting article from last year
http://www.prochoicecalifornia.org/news/headlines/200710121.shtml

"A comprehensive global study of abortion has concluded that abortion rates are similar in countries where it is legal and those where it is not, suggesting that outlawing the procedure does little to deter women seeking it."

[Ilsa]

10. I think the CDC has statistics for this. Everything is broken down

into live births, spontaneous abortion (miscarriage) and elective abortion, etc. You might try to dig around on their website.

[idgiehkt]

11. they are pretty wacked

because many of them don't include 3 or 4 states. Another interesting thing is some (different years) don't include women from out of state, and that would certainly make a difference now when women have to travel from out of state many times to get an abortion. This is something interesting I found though

"The national legal induced abortion ratio increased from 196 per 1,000 live births in 1973 (the first year that 52 areas reported) to 358 per 1,000 live births in 1979 and remained nearly stable through 1981 (Figure 1) (Table 2). The ratio peaked at 364 per 1,000 live births in 1984 and since then has shown a nearly steady decline. In 2000, the abortion ratio was 245 per 1,000 live births in 49 reporting areas and 246 for the same 48 reporting areas available for 1999. This represents a 3.8% decrease from 1999 (256 per 1,000 live births) for the 48 reporting areas."
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5212a1.htm

At least they are acknowledging when the decline began. If there is a legitimate drop, I think one would have to factor in the percentage of the population that is fertile to really get an accurate picture.