Posted previously here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=2670540Pollsters have a plan for Nevada: Skip it
Most say we’re too green at caucusing, too transient
By Brian Eckhouse, Michael Mishak
Fri, Jan 11, 2008 (2 a.m.)
National public opinion pollsters, fresh off a glaring failure to pick the winner in New Hampshire’s presidential primary, are now violently queasy about trying to predict a winner in Nevada. In fact, for a variety of reasons, major news organizations are taking a pass on polling before Nevada’s Jan. 19 caucus.
The concerns stem from the New Hampshire mistake and from knowledge that Nevada has a large transient population not familiar with the workings of a big-time caucus.
~snip~
The disparity in New Hampshire added to the anxiety of pollsters already uneasy about Nevada. Even NBC, whose cable news network, MSNBC, will broadcast Tuesday’s Democratic debate in Las Vegas, has no plans to poll Nevada, said Peter Hart, the Washington, D.C.-based pollster whose firm typically conducts the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll.
Pollsters who do dare to try to gauge not only the preferences of Nevadans but also the likelihood they will turn out for a first-time prime-time caucus face a set of challenges.
~snip~
Larry Harris, a principal with Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, one of two national firms that conduct polling for Nevada media on occasion, acknowledged the difficulty. “It requires a lot more energy than somebody pulling a lever in a secret ballot,” he said.
Nevada’s highly transient and increasingly diverse population is another complication for pollsters. ...“It’s very difficult to know who to sample, in terms of likely voters,” said Glen Bolger, a respected Republican pollster who has conducted surveys in Nevada.
The Pew Research Center, a respected public policy foundation, regards the circumstances here as so foreboding that it opted to leave Nevada out of its pre-election poll in December. “It’s an ascending chain of difficulty: general elections, primaries and caucuses,” said Scott Keeter, Pew’s director of survey research. “Caucuses burn up a lot of resources (for pollsters), and we thought our resources could be put to better use elsewhere.”
Nevada’s last poll was taken a month ago by Mason-Dixon, which says it will survey voters again before the caucus. (In the most recent poll, Clinton led in the single digits.) Infrequent polling is a problem, said Susan Pinkus, director of the Los Angeles Times Poll.
~snip~
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan/11/pollsters-have-plan-nevada-skip-it/ 
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