Can anyone offer any proof that Edwards dropping out of the race would help Obama?

[last_texas_dem]

Recently, there have been a number of threads started and posts made on here suggesting that John Edwards should drop out of the race now, isn't a viable candidate, etc. The general theme of many of these, whether from former Edwards supporters who have given up on Edwards but want to keep Clinton from getting the nomination or from Obama supporters, is that somehow Edwards staying in the race is hurting Obama and helping Clinton.

The problem I have with this idea is that I have seen no solid evidence offered that if Edwards were to drop out of the race that more of his supporters would move to Obama than would move to Clinton. Yes, I have noticed that more DUers who support Edwards seem to have Obama as their second choice than Clinton but that doesn't really tell me anything about Edwards supporters outside of this website. Are there any polls or any other sort of evidence that conclusively prove that a substantial majority (or even a slight majority) of Edwards supporters have Obama as their second choice and would move to him if Edwards were to withdraw, and that Edwards dropping out of the race wouldn't just keep the race between Clinton and Obama in about the same place with his supporters splitting evenly between the two of them?

ON EDIT: I accidentally posted this over here rather than in GD-P. Sorry about that...

[aquart]

1. Well, I was Edwards and moved to Clinton who was my second.

And there were a few others who came out last in one thread.

[stillcool]

2. Chris Matthews... n/t

[last_texas_dem]

9. I'm not sure I understand

Are you saying that Chris Matthews has said this (that Edwards supporters would go to Obama if Edwards dropped out)? Or that he would do that himself? Or something else?

[stillcool]

12. No...I'm saying if you are looking..

for 'proof' of a future event, something that 'might', 'could', or 'maybe will' happen..Chris Matthews..et.al, is a go-to-guy.

[last_texas_dem]

15. Oh, OK, I get it

Tweety can always be counted on to make random pronouncements about one thing or another.

[rucky]

3. There's gotta be some second-choice polls out there.

Other than instinct and what we read here, that would seem to be the most objective indicator.

[eleny]

4. If Edwards stays in and garners delegates, wouldn't that be significant?

If he stayed in and dropped out later he could give his delegates to another. He could make a deal with Obama for his delegates. So, seems to me staying in could ultimately help Obama.

That's if Edwards and Obama are closer in ideas.

[JDPriestly]

5. I volunteer for Edwards and talk to Edwards voters regularly.

I think that Edwards voters would either write Edwards name in or divide up about 1/2 for Clinton and 1/2 for Obama. A lot of Edwards voters just would not vote.

[cali]

6. "A lot of Edwards voters just would not vote. "

That reflects very poorly on them. Sad.

[Inspired]

11. I think that is because they see Edwards as the real change agent.

Disagree or not, they don't think it will matter much if it is Obama or Clinton. That is what is really sad.

[cali]

16. then they're ill informed- at best n/t

[Inspired]

19. Maybe you could help educate them on the differences?

[last_texas_dem]

17. I agree, if you're talking about people sitting out the general election

However, if you're talking about people sitting out the primary, I don't really think it makes much of a difference. If Edwards supporters don't have a strong preference for Clinton or Obama and those are their only options by the time of their primary, I don't believe that their sitting out the primary means much either way.

[JDPriestly]

20. Some of them are voters who would not ordinarily vote but

like Edwards and trust him and would vote for him. There are some who just really like Edwards. Who would you vote for if Obama dropped out of the race for some reason?

[last_texas_dem]

7. Alright, I found something

>>Barack Obama, with his outsider's message of change, looks like a logical second choice for those attracted to Edwards' pledge to fight special interests and corporate greed.

Indeed, Edwards voters in Iowa favored Obama over Clinton as their second choice by a nearly two-to-one margin in caucus-night surveys. And Edwards supporters in New Hampshire reported they had a far more favorable impression of Obama than of Clinton, according election-night surveys there.>>

http://www.newsweek.com/id/91458

Still, I would be curious if these tendencies are true on the national level with Edwards supporters, and if there has been any sort of polling on the national level that would provide this information.

[AndyA]

8. If I can't vote for John Edwards, I will hold my nose and very reluctantly

vote for Hillary Clinton. Yes, I know she's taking big business money, and I hate that, but at least she's honest about it.

I WILL NOT VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA if he's the nominee until he explains about the Donnie McClurkin abomination and how he's going to bring about this "real change" he keeps telling us about. He's taking money from the same people Hillary Clinton is taking money from. And he's already said he wants his lobbyist friends sitting at the table to negotiate.

Negotiate what? Their decrease in profits? Yeah, that's going to happen.

Until Barack addresses these issues to my satisfaction, he will not get my vote. And I know there are many others out there who feel as I do.

[Dawgs]

10. Well, considering you misrepresented half of the things you accuse Obama of I'm not surprised.

[zalinda]

13. Well, I don't want to listen to a preacher

all the time, I'd vote for Clinton, at least she doesn't preach to me.

zalinda

[AndyA]

14. What did I misrepresent? Tell me, because I'd love to have a STRAIGHT answer from

the Obama supporters, instead of more drive-by insults and accusations with nothing substantive. So, have at it!

HOW can he support gays AND a person who says "prayer cured me of homosexuality" at the same time? HOW CAN THAT BE?

And tell me how that big money thing is going to work as well. He's taking big bucks from lobbyists and corporations, and if you've been paying attention, you know they're largely responsible for this mess we're in. HOW IS HE GOING TO DEAL WITH THAT?

I'd really like to know, because he hasn't stated HOW he's going to do these things, in his speeches, nor on his site. So tell me, I'd really like to know.

[cali]

18. He didn't support

McClurkin. He publically repudiated what he said. Obama should not have let McClurking sing at one of his events, but all candidates make mistakes. Obama has always strongly supported GBLT issues. His record reflects it. Your candidate made a mistake that helped lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians and thousands of American troops. In my book that's mcch more serious an error in judgment. By fucking light years. And as you know, it was more that just a vote. I can think of no dem who was so supportive of bushco or so eager to bomb the shit out of Iraq. And you have a fit about a singer at an event? LMAO!

You lie over and over again. Obama has NOT taken any money from lobbyists for his presidential campaign. His percentage of funding from corporate interests is almost exactly the same as JE's, and you know it.

Furthermore, there have been numerous posts that go into detail on his policies and his past record.

You so don't tell the truth. But hey, keep supporting EdWARds while slamming Obama day in and day out. You make me awfully glad I won't have to vote for your candidate. And he won't even be a choice by the time my late primary rolls around.