Pollsters have a plan for Nevada: Skip it

[Junkdrawer]

National public opinion pollsters, fresh off a glaring failure to pick the winner in New Hampshire’s presidential primary, are now violently queasy about trying to predict a winner in Nevada.

In fact, for a variety of reasons, major news organizations are taking a pass on polling before Nevada’s Jan. 19 caucus.

The concerns stem from the New Hampshire mistake and from knowledge that Nevada has a large transient population not familiar with the workings of a big-time caucus.

By comparison, New Hampshire is a state with a long history of political participation, a stable population and a history of respected surveys that have accurately gauged the preferences of the electorate. Nevertheless, the polls had Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton on election day by an average margin of more than 8 percentage points.

Clinton won by 2 points.

In the world of pollsters, that’s outside the statistical margin of error a train wreck.

...

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan/11/pollsters-have-plan-nevada-skip-it/

[Junkdrawer]

1. He he he....You say the new voting machines have you gun shy???

You say that your polls now raise more questions than answers?

Well, bucko, cheer up. Simply take a little vacation and then later claim that you had it right all along.