Can Obama win in the South?

[kentuck]

Can any Democrat win the general election without winning the South - or at least some of the South? Is this something that we should be concerned about? For some reason, the old Wynona Judd song, "Mama, I'm Crazy", keeps popping up in my head. :-) I do hope we all make the right decision in the end.

[bluestateguy]

1. I'm skeptical

Maybe Virginia, which has a high percentage of educated people, but even there, it will be tough.

[napi21]

2. Not the parts of teh South I've lived in. They would NEVER vote

for a black man, but they would NEVER vote for a woman either! I was really hoping Biden would catch fire, but he didn't. I'm still hoping for Edwards. If you don't live here, you don't realize just how strong those feelings really are! BTW, I've lived in SC, TX, Ms, and now in Ga. I'm really scared as hell that we could lose the election!

[cali]

3. yes a dem can win without the south

Ohio, Iowa, CO, NM are all states a dem could win and we wouldn't need the South. I also believe a dem could win in VA.

[rateyes]

4. Yes, he can.

Take Georgia, for example. Atlanta and its 'burbs make up more than half of the population of the state. Add other cities into that mix---Columbus, Macon, Augusta, and there is no doubt that a black man can be elected here.

A woman, on the other hand, IMO, would fare much worse--black or white. Sexism, believe it or not, is stronger in the south than is racism. Remember, the pulpits of the Bible Belt still preach subjugation of women to men...whereas they can't get away with preaching subjugation of blacks to whites. And, I'm sad to say that women who attend conservative churches buy "submission of wife to husband" as "the word of God."

[ngant17]

8. I think you're really only talking Southern Baptists

for example, in the Methodist church I go to in a rural area of Central Florida, we've had a woman preacher for many years, she's quite popular in the congregation, and she isn't the first
woman pastor at this church, either (I've attended this same church for about 10 years now). So I'd guess at least the United Methodist Women would be thrilled to vote for Hillary, but I'm not sure how it would work for Obama in this regard.

I think Hillary could have one of her strongest showings in Florida, especially S. Florida, but I would bet also that Obama will not lag very far behind her.

[rateyes]

9. Southern Baptists, P.C.A. Presbyterians,

Conservative Methodists (many congregations don't like it when they are sent a woman pastor), most black churches....

There's a heirarchy. BTW, there are women pastors even in a few Southern Baptist Churches.

[JCMach1]

5. No better than John Kerry on that score...

[cali]

7. and you know this how, exactly?

Oh, that's right, you're consulting your 8 ball- or equally reliable instrument.

[ngant17]

6. I'd bet that Hillary would make them more enraged than Obama

The Southern Repugs will absolutely despise Hillary, but there are more independent and Democrat voters who would override them if the election is kept relatively clean and honest this time. Same thing would apply with Obama IMHO.

[LibDemAlways]

10. Gore is from Tennessee and he couldn't win his own

state. No Dem will win in the South.

[kentuck]

16. Kentucky has already turned blue..

A Democrat won the Governor's seat by a landslide.

[karlrschneider]

19. That means nothing. My state, Oklahoma has a Democrat governor as usual

and a large majority in the state house and senate but goes overwhelmingly Republican for national offices.
I personally know many Democrats who would never in a million years vote for a black man or a woman of any hue.

[tandem5]

11. it doesn't look good for any democrat, but its really all about

the south west these days.

[ShadowLiberal]

12. We're making gains in some southern states

If Virginia keeps on going blue we may be able to win the state, and that's a fairly big state.

[BlackVelvet04]

33. Some info on the state of Virginia....

Virginia’s population reached 7.5 million in 2005, maintaining the Commonwealth’s
position as the 12th largest state in the country.

Virginia’s population distribution was very uneven. The state’s 11 metropolitan areas
contained more than 85 percent of the total population. In 2005, two out of every three
Virginians lived in the Northern Virginia, Richmond, or Virginia Beach metropolitan
areas. The imbalance between metropolitan and non-metropolitan populations was
further intensified by recent growth. Since 2000, 95 percent of the state’s increase
occurred in the 11 metropolitan areas.

The state’s population growth was driven more by migration than by natural increase.
Virginia’s population increased by nearly one-half million people between 2000 and
2005; 53 percent as a result of migrants moving to Virginia from other states or countries,
while the remaining 47 percent was due to a greater number of births than deaths.
http://www.vaperforms.virginia.gov/VirginiaProfile2006.pdf

*********************************************************************************

The metropolitan areas tend to be much more liberal of course than the rural areas, except for the transplants. There has been an influx of northern transplants to Virginia's rural areas because of the low cost of housing.

Virginia elected Webb in 2006 and I think that is a good sign that Virginia could go Democratic in 2008.

[RethugAssKicker]

13. The South is still too racist for Obama to win..

[LibDemAlways]

14. Racists are by no means confined to the South. I'm in

CA and there are plenty here as well.

[karlrschneider]

18. Which, unfortunately, is precisely why he can't be elected.

It's an ugly truth that too many people refuse to face.

[appal_jack]

24. I've got to believe that change is possible

Karl,

I know that racism is still rampant across the country, but I've got to believe that change and progress are possible to hold onto some shred of my sanity. So even though I know some hicks in SW Virginia that have their German Shepherd trained to attack when they say "Bite the N-----" (and they say the hateful word loud and clear: these are not friends of mine, but unfortunately I have had to do some business with them at times), I also know plenty of southerners (white, black, and otherwise) who WOULD vote for a black president.

I am hoping that anti-racists are growing to the point that we outnumber the racists.

-app

[karlrschneider]

25. I would love to be wrong about this.

...

[LibDemAlways]

27. I agree. Obama is a gifted politician, but he

won't be elected President. Not in a country in which one of my husband's college-educated co-workers proudly proclaims that his kids attend a "normal white school." Not in a country in which a friend can lean over to me at dinner and feel no hesitation in apologizing for having picked the restaurant because she "didn't realize" so many black people would be eating there. Not in a country in which my sister-in-law dismisses Obama outright because "He doesn't look like a President." Not in a country in which an elderly relative can tell me he's supporting Hillary over "that colored guy."

I realize those few personal experiences, by themselves, don't add up to much, but I don't think they're that atypical. We've come a long way as a nation in a relatively short period of time, but we haven't come far enough.

[2hip]

22. Racism AND sexism are rampant EVERYWHERE

Which is why Obama and Clinton are unelectable. I'm not keen on another reign under GOP rule.


    Edwards '08 tees!

[FrenchieCat]

15. With the help of unregistered voters who are energized with Obama's message,

anything is possible.

It's not like Democrats have been winning the South for quite some time.

[blogslut]

17. Yes

Obama can win in the south.

[NOLALady]

20. No.

[appal_jack]

21. it would be easier for him if he quit the gun-grab rhetoric

I have no illusions that anyone from the Obama campaign is reading this or will follow my advice. BUT, as someone who likes Obama quite a lot on many issues, here goes. Obama apparently has been pretty anti-2nd Amendment in his past (no, I don't have links, but I have read in DU's gungeon that he has favored a ban on handguns and all semi-automatic rifles: if true, that is a deal-breaker with every southern male, and at least half the southern females I know).

Now, none of these pro-2A southerners (myself included) will swallow a complete flip-flop on the gun issue, but a nuanced statement of change could be believable and help Obama a bunch. Like maybe he go to a shooting range with Bill Richardson (or Senator Webb, or some other pro-2A Dem), and after handling a Glock or a 1911 properly and safely (and hopefully putting a few holes in the paper) he could issue a statement that his past anti-2A statements were based on the extreme gang violence that has plagued Chicago for much of his life. But, now, as a national candidate for the highest office in the land, he understands his responsibility to protect all the rights enshrined in the Constitution, including the Second Amendment.

If he avoids all the poison phrases (like 'sensible gun regulation,' 'assault weapon ban,' etc.) while issuing such a statement, I think it could go a long way toward diverting the pro-2A tidal wave that will otherwise drown him in the South.

Just my $.02.

-app


Edit to add that doing the above, plus asking Richardson to be his running mate would go even further. Would this stop the racist opposition to a black Pres? (and a Latino VP!) No. But if Obama could just peel a few gun-owning southerners away from his opposition, I think he could win more than a few southern states.

[karlrschneider]

26. You could be describing my state, not normally considered all that "southern" but

mostly has the same mindset on this issue. Oddly, a lot of Okla Democrats will vote for Republicans in national elections. It's crazy.

[madrchsod]

23. yes we can

we have to register people ,we have to get the people to where they vote,we have to make sure their votes are counted,and we have to make sure we have people who will report the truth. it`s time to go back to the 60`s

[kurth]

28. Not a chance

Sad but true.

[zabet]

29. In the South?

I have doubts of any Dem winning
the part of the South I live in.
I am sad to say that next to rebel flags,
this is the latest hate bumper sticker around here...

:puke::puke::puke:

[daleo]

30. That seems like hate literature

I don't know, that seems to cross a line to me (but I live in Canada).

[zabet]

32. I agree.

It highly pissed me
off the first time I
saw it.

[tnlefty]

31. I'm fully preparing to get slammed, but here goes.

I really don't know, but I do know a few African Americans who don't want him to be the nominee and a few who do. I've heard comparisons to Obama and Harold Ford, Jr. on Air America and other radio programs...

I, along with MANY people worked hard for Ford despite our not liking a lot of his votes, positions, statements, because we realized the importance of trying to get majorities in both chambers of Congress - subpoena power! What radio hosts and others mention is the "call me ad" which was despicable. Race will be used against Obama, but this type of ad has no merit with him as he and Michelle are married with 2 young daughters, while Ford was dating a caucasian woman (his current fiance') during his campaign.

Having typed that, some of the vile crap that came from the local Pachyderm club via whisper campaigns, phone calls and leaflets that we knew about with Ford, Jr., they will use again, i.e. 'you can't vote for a black man' or they then resorted to (and it's awful to type) 'you can't vote for a half-breed'. This will be used along with the nasty e-mails that are shuttling through the tubes of the internets about Obama and will intensify, no doubt.

Perhaps it's a good idea to keep "Whistling Past Dixie" until the south can move forward.