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This year, I watched my three preferred candidates refuse to enter the race.
I then watched my next two preferred falter quickly and all but disappear.
I had latched my hopes on my next preferred choice. If he were to fall, then I'd be stuck with two people I didn't want to see get the nomination as the only viable alternatives.
Last night's "surge" by Hillary and lackluster showing by John Edwards have sealed the deal. Edwards cannot win the nomination now. He needed momentum from the early states to give him viability, and he hasn't gotten it. I am now once more in "hold your nose and vote" territory. I hate being there. Unless a miracle happens and John Edwards wins Nevada and South Carolina, and we all know that's not going to happen, I can't risk wasting my vote on him and risk seeing the worst of the two bad choices skate away on Super Tuesday.
So, I've decided. On February 5th, in the New Jersey primary, I'm voting for Barack Obama.
Let me qualify that. I'm not voting for Obama as much as I am voting against Hillary, and Obama is now the only viable alternative to Hillary.
Why am I voting against Hillary? Because I want to see us win in November. All of the ideological aspects aside - all the discussion of triangulation and alienation - I cannot vote for Hillary because there is, quite simply, absolutely no way she can win in November.
Hillary is the ultimate in damaged goods. Even if we disregard her center-right tendencies, her history of opportunism, her voting record, and her gender, she has baggage holding her down that would make Samsonite proud: her name. "Hillary Clinton."
This year, the Republicans are in disarray. They hate all their candidates. The neocons are in complete and total disrepute. The radical religious right is straining to prove themselves relevant. The old-school fiscal Republicans have the best chance at wooing independent voters, but a tiny share of the party base. Whoever wins the nomination: neocons Romney or McCain, Religious nut Rev. Mike Huckabee, or old-school grafter Rudy, large chunks of the Republican voter base are going to be disillusioned and stay at home, or cast a protest vote for the Constitution or Libertarian candidates.
Unless, of course, we nominate Hillary.
Hillary is the drop of blood that causes Republican sharks to swarm and start their feeding frenzy. They hate her more than anything in this world. They hate her for her association with her husband; they hate her for his successes during his two terms. They hate her because of everything she stands for. They hate her because she (actually, her husband) is proof that a Democrat CAN govern effectively, and CAN lead by inspiration. And, yes, they hate her because she is a woman.
Whatever reason each individual Republican might have for hating her, that hatred will be a powerful impetus to get into the polling place on election day and vote for the Republican candidate. Pro-abortion Giuliani supporters will gladly pull the lever for Rev. Huckabee, the former Governor of Jesus who advocates jailing abortion doctors. Evangelical Christians will pull the lever for Mormon Mitt Romney even though they're afraid of his unorthodox beliefs and his magic underwear. Civil libertarians will pull the lever for Giuliani, the Mayor of 9/11, who all but turned Manhattan into a police state during his tenure. And they'll all do so gladly, if it means defeating Hillary Clinton.
Barack Obama's race and relative inexperience are also baggage, but he doesn't inspire nearly as much irrational hatred among Republicans as Hillary does. Do I think he can win in November? It's unlikely because there is no way a black candidate can carry any state south of the Mason Dixon line, even Florida unless they switch to hand counted paper ballots. He won't deliver any of the sparsely-populated western states to us, but he will give us a fighting chance in the battlegrounds. He might inspire enough new voters and independents into his camp to stand a chance in states that could tip either way. Most important, the disillusioned Republicans are more likely to stay home or go to a third or fourth party with him at the top of our ticket than if Hillary is up there.
Don't get me wrong, I still think John Edwards is the better choice. I still prefer his health plan, and I think he's the best option for November. But if he can't win the nomination, and I don't see he can, then we have to make sure we aren't cutting off our nose to spite our faces again. We can't afford another Mondale, or McGovern, or Adlai Stevenson. We need someone who has a snowball's chance in hell of winning, and that is not Hillary.
Barring a miracle, and I continue to pray for one, I will be voting for Obama on the 5th.
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