Is it over after NH if Obama wins it? That depends.

[cali]

If it's a blow out and he wins by 15 or 20 pts in a three way race, yeah. It's essentially over. Is that possible? Yes. He's leading Clinton by 10 pts now in the newest Rasmussen and his support is solid. I don't know if it's true but I've heard it said that no candidate who has won both Iowa and NH has ever lost the nomination.

[still_one]

1. No, but it sure is a good indicator what the independent voter is thinking about /nt

[LeftCoast]

2. I think it also depends somewhat on SC

If he has a strong win in NH and a good solid win in SC he'd be going into supertuesday with a very strong tailwind and will probably be unstopable. If Clinton is close behind or manages a win in either one, I think we'll definitely go all the way to 2/5, but that will decide it.

[Trajan]

3. No .....

Clinton will bank on her national appeal, and look to NY, California, Florida, et al to restore her mojo ....

It is probably a losing battle, but she has got bank enough to stick it out ....

[Ravy]

4. Cali, I respectfully disagree.

Things are different now. We have TWO candidates that are very well funded and will easily be able to go the distance. Edwards, if 2004 is any indication, will stick it out quite a while on public financing. I think, since his message is different from the two front runners, he will perhaps be able to get some wins and generally finish respectable seconds and thirds.

It may be enough for a brokered convention, and I am not sure Obama could get that. What reason would any of the top three have for getting out of the race when the delegate count moves up so slowly when split three or more ways?

[cali]

6. I suspect that if Obama wins in a blow out in NH, that trend

will continue into SC and likely into Super Tuesday. Edwards may stick it out, but he may draw increasingly fewer votes as the process continues and people view him as not viable. I don't see where he wins. I would have liked an Obama/Edwards race but I don't see it. I don't even see where he comes in second from here on out.

I'm not saying anyone will get out of the race. I'm suggesting that it's possible that Obama will win big and that it will all be over by Feb 6. I think that's more likely than a brokered convention.

[Ravy]

12. I think that is discounting Clinton wins.

Clinton will probably win in some states, probably quite a few. There are a lot of status-quo dems, who want change, but they want change back to Clinton from Bush. Obama and Edwards voters look at change in a different way. Obama wants change to where partisan bickering is behind us, Edwards wants to crush corporate interests. There are three distinct messages, all with their own ardent supporters. If you look at delegates, and not just wins, there may be very little difference in the top three after Super Tuesday, even if Edwards does not win anywhere.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

5. How did Bill Clinton do in Iowa and New Hampshire?

[cali]

7. What does that have to do with the fact that no

candidate who's won both Iowa and NH has ever lost the nomination? Bill Clinton didn't win Iowa or NH and he won the nomination. How does that contradict the fact I posted?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. It was actually a question I didn't know the answer to, sheesh.

[Alexander]

11. He got 3% in Iowa and came in second in New Hampshire.

However, Tom Harkin was from Iowa and running in 1992, so he was expected to win. And he did, by 74%.

After the allegations of marital infidelity, Clinton started polling very badly in New Hampshire. One poll had him in 3rd place and pundits claimed he was finished.

So naturally, when he came a close second behind Tsongas (who was from next-door Massachusetts), everyone was surprised.

It's about winning and beating expectations. Bill didn't win but he did better than expected and "won" in that sense.

[salin]

8. I would hold off such celebratory talk - before the first super primary

day happens. A, it looks naively foolish (with such a well-funded field, it is unlikely to fall into such a neat sweep so quickly) and B, it really is poor "sport" - as in very antagonisitic to all who either support other candidates, or who are waiting and watching developments in order to make their decision.

[cali]

10. I'm not celebrating. Sure my analysis may be clouded

by my partisanship, but I actually see the possibility of things unfolding this way. And I'm hardly gloating or taunting anyone. It's simply my take on the race. And you, of course, are free to agree or not.