Must Edwards win in at least one of: NH, SC, or NV to stay in the race?

[RiverStone]

I suppose getting 2nd last night was just enough to keep some momentum, though I'll admit to being surprised at the margin of Obama's victory. I really though JE would do better considering his extensive and well organized network in IA.

As an Edwards leaner, I was looking forward to a huge Iowa bounce. That bounce went to Obama.

I have not added up all the math, but it seems Edwards MUST WIN at least one of the next three Dem primary states to stay in the fight. Do you agree?

BTW, I thought Obama's speech last night rocked! Best speech of the political season to date, IMO.

[Lex]

1. Which ones must Hillary win?

nt

[book_worm]

3. I think NH is a must-win for Hillary.

[book_worm]

2. yes, he has to win somewhere if he's going to build momentum

I think for Edwards it will come down to SC, a primary he won in '04 and his birthstate.

[pinto]

5. Good point, yet I think he'll stay in through Super Tuesday, at least

I hope so. I'd sure like to see a multi-candidate race through Feb. 5th.

After that, I would see the logic of some candidates reassessing their primary runs.

:shrug:

[cali]

4. If Edwards doesn't win or come in a close second in NH

it's over for him. And it is very unlikely that he can make up enough ground in four days to do either.

[SteelPenguin]

6. Unfortunately, I do believe he must

He's got an uphill climb to say the least against the media giant as it is, without a win somewhere, it's going to be next to impossible, without some sort of miracle or big blunder by a major candidate.

As long as the other candidates don't face plant, It's going to have to be still brutally close between Obama and Clinton going into Super Tuesday, and even then Edwards money just might not allow him to effectively package himself as a better option.

Should Obama win N.H., the chances are highly likely he'll also win S.C., and even if Clinton were to win Nevada, Obama would probably be heading into Super Tuesday looking at securing his nomination. Momentum, paritcularly with the media, is huge at this stage, which is why Iowa is so big, when nobody from in state or nearby is running (ie Tom Harkin, etc). Obama has momentum, however if someone else wins in N.H. that momentum will stall a bit and be stolen in part by that winner. If it's Edwards he has a chance to parlay that into S.C. and Super Tuesday. If he doesn't he's probably done.

Anything can happen in the next five days, but I think unless something major and unforseen happens, we'll be looking at Edwards bowing out gracefully after Super Tuesday.

Which is too bad because he would have been my first choice.

[pennylane100]

7. I heard that his fundraising has gone up since yesterday.

As an Edwards supporter, that gives me a lot of hope. Of course at this time during the last election I was hoping for Dean to win a primary.

[mb7588a]

8. no, delegates are delegates.

I think anyone entering March with 15%+ delegates will be in the game and have some power. I don't see any of the three of them running away with it yet.

[whatdoyouthink]

9. I think he Can WIN one out of the

Three - but needs to come close 2nd out of one of the other 2

and then OPEN A CAN of WOOP *ss after that!!!