your best guess - IOWA caucus results

[radfringe]

your best guess on who will come out ahead in IOWA for the Democratic and republic candidates

what about surprise results - candidates that did better than expected?

[radfringe]

1. my guess - Clinton - Romney

DEMS Win-Place-Show
Clinton - but by far less than expected
Edwards - right on Clinton's heels
Obama - few lengths behind and fading

Surprise results: Biden - way better than expected

republics - Win-Place-Show
Romeny - by a nose
Huckabee - edging up
McCain - pulls ahead of Guilliani

Surprise results: guilliani now in the 2nd tier and losing speed

[ThomWV]

2. Edwards v. Romney

[bklyncowgirl]

3. Here goes...complete with Dark Horse Shockers

DEMOCRATS:

Clinton's got organization but Obama's got passion & reportedly, a little help from his friends (Kucinich, possibly Biden & Richardson). Edwards has both organization & passion making him second choice. Richardson's been moving up in the polls and so has Biden. Dodd, sadly, seems dead in the water.

Trifecta: Obama 27, Edwards 22, Clinton 20

Democratic Dark Horse Shocker--Bill Richardson beats one of the big three.

REPUBLICANS:

Iowa Republicans LOVE fundamentalists--Didn's Pat Robertson win this or do surprisingly well some years back? Huckabees got the passion. The Grover Norquist/Rush Limbaugh crowd is for Romney but do they love him enough (or hate Huckabee enough) to turn out? McCain is roundly disliked in Iowa, and hasn't put an effort in here, but Republicans who still have one foot in realityland may decide to go for him as the strongest general election candidate. Ron Paul's polling low but it could be they're not polling the right people--his supporters will walk through a blizzard to vote for him.

Trifecta: Huckabee 25%, Romney 20%, McCain 17%

Republican Dark Horse Shocker: Ron Paul comes out of nowhere to take third or even second.

[Squatch]

10. I'll put $20 on each of the dark horses...what kind of odds are you giving?

[bklyncowgirl]

11. 15 / 1 on Ron Paul beating McCain 50 / 1 on Bill Richardson beating any of the big three

I'm thinking they're seriously undercounting Ron Paul's support--all those anarchist kids with cell phones like my young friend Margaret who see him as a latter day Gene McCarthy.

Bill's got a tougher job--he needed a foreign policy faux pas from one of the big three and no one has stepped up and obliged him. It's possible but not likely.

[malaise]

4. Edwards

I don't give a dam about the Rethugs

[monarch]

5. I wish that it would be edwards with

dodd a strong 4th. i guess that the dodd wish isn't going to happen but the edwards wish might.

dodd is a neighbor and we love him dearly here in east haddam.

[boston bean]

9. That's how I feel too! nt

[lapfog_1]

6. hmmm...

Obama, Edwards, tie between Clinton and Biden. Richardson and Dodd are history.

Could be a three way tie for second between Edwards, Clinton, and Biden.

[frogcycle]

7. both your scenarios sound plausible

Biden is definitely going to be the "shocker"


with 30% uncommitted, plus the unknown of where the non-viable go on round two, it literally could be a stunner. Biden could actually win and still not contradict the polls

[monmouth]

8. I'm likin' your thinkin'...n/t

[bdamomma]

15. That would be interesting if Biden ties with Clinton.

I have my fingers crossed for Joe.

[Vinca]

12. Haven't a clue, but I have a feeling Ron Paul is going to make

the Republican universe come crashing down.

[Mist]

14. I think soo too--and I hope Biden is equally successful. (fingers crossed). nt

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. Obama/Romney.....maybe Edwards/Romney. Edwards was awfully close to Barack in numbers this morning.

It looks like Hill's not going to win this one.

[arcos]

16. Obama - Edwards - Clinton, Huckabee - Romney - Paul

Obama 32%
Edwards 31%
Clinton 25%

Huckabee 30%
Romney 29%
Paul 13%

[cali]

17. Obama 34%, Edwards 28%, Clinton 24%

Biden 8%, Richardson 5%, Dennis 1%, Gravel 0%.

On the repuke side, Romney, McCain, Huckabooboo, Guiliani, Paul

[nuxvomica]

18. D: Edwards, Obama, Clinton. R: I don't care enough

The Republican race just doesn't interest me cuz I know they don't have a snowball's chance at winning the general. If pushed, I'd have to say it's between Huckabee and Romney, the latter ultimately getting the nomination regardless of what happens in Iowa.