Iowa! And the winner is...

[Ravy]

whoever the media fawns over until the NH Primary, and then even some beyond.

The vote totals don't matter all that much, it is about surprising the media.

If Edwards wins by any margin, he will become the giant killer who beat the top two with a fraction of the expense. It could propel him to the nomination if other early states catch the fever.

If Clinton wins by 3 percent, it will be how she is such a formidable candidate and even though the polls showed her behind, when all the votes were cast, Iowans woke up to the fact that her lead was simply insurmountable. If she shows third but statistically behind the first two, the story will be "how did the wheels come off of the Clinton juggernaut".

Unless Obama wins by a good sized margin, say 10%, he will not be the story. At this point, the media has him pegged to win. The story will probably be "No surprises in the Democratic caucus, let's look at the Republican totals where John McCain...". If he places third, he will get some press, but not good press.

If Biden or Richardson or Dodd get 15% or more, they are likely to be mentioned in the top-tier with the others and get some press. A third place finish for any of them would likely spell doom for any of the top three they supplanted. Any of them just breaking away from the other two might give them enough to energize their campaigns, the other two would probably soon fold.

Kucinich votes will probably be looked at as "protest votes", at least that is likely to be the story in the media. Unfortunately, I don't think the media will consider him to be a viable candidate even with a third place finish, although it would suck to be the top-three candidate he beats.

My impressions only. We will likely know in 24 hours if I am right or not.

What do you think the story will be, and what has to happen for that story to be the headline?

[book_worm]

1. Any one of them who wins will benefit

and Obama doesn't have to win by ten to have it be pegged as a real win.

[Ravy]

2. Not by Obama supporters, no.

But I think he will have to in order to become the "story". DMR has him up by 6 already, and DK has since thrown his support that way (although for second round only). If it happens as expected, there is no story, the media will look elsewhere for something to talk about.

[MADem]

3. IA is just a media exercise. Eleven percent of the state's voters will tell us what they think.

That's not democracy, that's an exercise for political junkies.

It doesn't mean much.

I question if Kucinich will even REGISTER in IA. He hasn't spent any time there.

[Ravy]

5. A very powerful media exercise.

RIP Dean candidacy... hello John Kerry. Not many saw that coming.

[MADem]

6. The polls did, actually. Dean was outta gas before he screamed.

The scream was just the final nail in his coffin. He blew IA, and that scream made sure he'd deconstruct elsewhere, too....

[Hoof Hearted]

4. WHITE PEOPLE!

Sorry, just a little Chapelle moment, sprinkled with truth.

[Ravy]

7. Kick for the daytimers nt