What do polls really matter? Why do polls really matter?

[uppityperson]

Explain it to me like I'm stupid because I really don't understand how or why polls matter. Thank you.

[LWolf]

1. They DON'T matter to me.

They matter to power holders, because they can be manipulated to narrow the field and to benefit the power holders. They give tptb more control over the election process.

[IndyOp]

2. They only matter because they are used to manipulate people into jumping on the

bandwagon. It's an old, venerated marketing strategy -- people want to use the brand everyone else uses and vote for the candidate everyone else is voting for -- it saves them the time and effort it would take to think independently and saves them the risk of being socially ostracized for being a different brand or rooting for a different candidate.

I sincerely believe that poll taking and poll reporting should be legally restricted -- no I don't know how, but it should.

[uppityperson]

4. That makes sense, thank you.

People are manipulatable.

[Iggo]

3. They don't matter to me, either.

No poll I've ever seen has caused me to change my vote on any issue or in favor of or against any candidate. But they exist, so they must be working on somebody. Just not me.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

5. Exit polls matter...

they definitely indicate the veracity of the vote counting.

[uppityperson]

6. I can see that, was wondering about now.

So much seems to be made of polls as the campaign goes along, but I don't get it. Thanks

[HCE SuiGeneris]

7. As was stated upthread,

the design, survey sample, and results can all be manipulated to fit a desired return. 'Tis an exercise in manipulation of perceptions mainly.

[davsand]

8. From the perspective of a campaign, polls can help ID issues to work on.

It also can tell you how effective you have been (thus far) at getting your candidate's message out to the voters. It can also help you understand if the issues you have put out (thus far) have resonated with voters.

I have NEVER seen a campaign that quit working because the polling data was too good, nor have I ever seen a poll that was not skewed somehow by whoever wrote it. (Always remember, he who pays for the poll influences what is in it!)

I think there is danger in taking polling data too seriously, and you should NEVER look at polling results without looking at the margin of error on it. Usually, in most polls, the sample is just way smaller than the number of voters, and in spite of several discussions with people who do this stuff for a living, I have never been convinced that most polls are worth too much when it comes to accurately predicting the outcome of a race.

YMMV, but I sure wouldn't buy champagne or a black armband based on polling data.



Laura