Play The Iowa Two-Step

[KharmaTrain]

First of all...a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Years to all DU'ers. Here's to fighting the good fights and making this year a more peaceful one.

A question to the class...

The unique feature of the Democratic process in the Iowa Caucus is the famous 15% rule. Most are familiar with it by now. I'm curious to see if you were a caucuss attendee (and if you plan to be, your input would be most welcome) supporting one candidate and he/she didn't meet the 15% quota who would you switch to? Or would you just hop in the car and go home?

Discuss.

:toast:

[Frustratedlady]

1. I will be a precinct captain for Joe Biden (and proud of it).

If Joe doesn't reach his 15%, we will try to "borrow" people from one of the top 3 who have enough people to be viable. Also, when one of the top names are trying to knock out another, they will "give" or offer one of their caucus goers to another candidate to keep them from joining a close competitor.

I'll make it easier by putting some names with the players in this situation. For example. Say Obama has 3 extra people, Edwards is safe, but Clinton needs one more person to be viable. Obama could give Biden, Richardson or Dodd his extras to make them viable, but knock out Clinton for that precinct. That way, Obama's extra people won't walk over to their 2nd choice--or be talked into coming over to another candidate (which might be Clinton) because Obama will still have control of the situation by "giving" them to Biden, Richardson or Dodd. By giving caucus goers to Biden, Richardson or Dodd, Obama will not feel threatened that they might beat him in the GE, since they are so low. Not only can that happen, but I believe it WILL happen.

[KharmaTrain]

3. Retail Politics Defined

Thanks for the post. You really describe how crazy this whole process is...and all the inside poker that has and will be played out on Thursday that plays way below the corporate media and pollster radar.

I'll be curious how the lower candidates release their delegates and if those changes could drive a major candidate below 15% as well. This is really a test of resolve...the first candidate's delegates that blink loses big.

Cheers...

[justgamma]

5. How does he "give" away his people?

I am really confused. It takes about 15 minutes to caucus (split into groups). There are almost 1800 precincts. When does all the giving away of people happen? How does the candidate control the situation? How is this coordinated?

I'm new to this, but there was no wheeling and dealing last time. Kuchinich did endorse Edwards last time, but there was no forcing his people to change their vote.

[Frustratedlady]

6. No, they aren't forced. Each precinct captain can "ask" people to go to...

another candidate to bring them up to viable status. It isn't going to hurt their main choice, as they are already viable. It is going to help another candidate reach viability. The actual candidate doesn't get involved, except through their precinct captain by prior instructions. There is a strategy that will come into play when the counts come down.

For instance, Biden might need another person in his corner. His captain can ask other people to join their group...be it from another candidate that has no chance of making the 15% or from one of the candidates that already has become viable and has leftovers. Also, perhaps Dodd and Richardson has told their precinct captain to go to Joe, if they have no way of becoming viable.

Remember when we were kids choosing up sides? If everyone went to one side, they had to share to make a full team on the other. It's kind of like choosing sides. In the end, we are mostly concerned that there is a strong lineup.

Clear as mud?

[justgamma]

7. Ok. Thanks. I get it now. n/t

[JDPriestly]

2. If I were there, I would vote for Edwards.

He will have 15%, and I would stick with him.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. If he gets 20% that's 1.33 delegates.

That third has to be recombined and divvied up, whether for Edwards or someone else.

At least that's how it works in the Washington caucus.