Are we headed for economic disaster in the coming months/years?

[Jackpine Radical]

Make your best guess on the future of the US economy & post your economic insights and wisdom for all to see.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Can't guess.

Has there been so much damage done that there can be no rehabilitation or mitigation performed to either blunt the blow or reduce the time of the hard economic times?

Who will be the next president and what will be the political make-up of both Houses of Congress?

Will the world shun the dollar indefinitely or until the next president takes the oath of office and return to it?

Will national policy focus on Peak Oil and seriously start to develop an alternate energy program?

Will Americans continue consume but on what they really possess in assets rather than rely on credit?

Will corporations continue to corrupt members of Congress and the Senate as well as the White House, and how much or less so?

OTOH, if things continue on exactly as they are now, I'd have venture a guess, that yes that this country is headed for economy disaster in the coming months/years.

[Raven]

8. If people don't quit shopping for things they don't need

they will be in trouble. Too much debt, not enough savings.

[no_hypocrisy]

10. Interestingly, I have a feeling that the thing that fuels this economy is the

expectation that a majority of people will buy things they don't need. Consumerism is the key, not agriculture, not manufacturing, not even technology. It's people buying stuff whether or not they have the money for it.

[MikeNearMcChord]

2. My question for those who say the economy is mostly healthy.

Healthy for who? The top 1% i agree, but who else other than the repo man?

[Jackpine Radical]

3. Healthy for you.

[Baby Snooks]

16. The real economics

In a depression, the rich merely get richer. We have been in a depression for some time. Low interest rates may seem to be a sign of a healthy economy. They are anything but. Credit has been too easy.

We were able to ignore it this time because we were able to borrow enough to "make ends meet" and ignore it. But the credit collapse of course is what will cause the walls of the house to fall. When the repo man comes and takes them back. All the walls are falling. Except the walls along Park Avenue and Bel-Air Road. Although some of those, actually, have developed some cracks.

Quite a few did very nicely after the Great Crash and the Great Depression. Quite a few are doing very nicely right now. And will continue to do so.

Ours is a global economy now. Far different than the 1930s. I don't think anyone really knows what may happen next. Most of all the economists. Some say we may see an increase in our exports and yet what is it we export anymore? We seem to import it all.

One thing that is happening is we are losing our middle class. Some are managing to "move up" into the echelons of the "haves" but most are beginning to "move down" into the echelons of the "have-nots."

The "haves" have an expensive lifestyle and the "have-nots" are having to pay for it. But that is how an oligarchy works. The "haves" have democracy. The "have-nots" have whatever the oligarchy behind the democracy deigns to toss their way. One of the things they will toss their way to accomodate them is socialism which always accompanies oligarchy. The "haves" get the cake. The "have-nots" get the crumbs. Let them eat cake indeed. The best example of an oligarchy is Mexico. They perfected it to the point that they found the easiest way to toss the crumbs to the "have-nots" is to toss them someone else's crumbs. Mexico's number one export is our number one import. Our new worker class. And they aren't destined to become part of the middle class. They are destined to establish the new worker class. Ronald Reagan warned us. Barbara Jordan warned us. None of us listened.

Scary thought but in some ways some want a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress in 2008 for one reason. To protect the oligarchy by establishing the socialism. To further establish this new worker class. To replace the middle class.

The oligarchists. The men, and some women, behind the thrones of Washington. Democrats and Republicans are just pawns on their chess board. Moved around the board to give them the better advantage. Over us. The American people. We are no longer "by the people, for the people." We are "by the corporation, for the corporation."

Few people really study the economic histories of countries. They are fascinating histories. Particularly the establishment of these "central banks" which control it all. One name is always etched somewhere. Rothschild. A name some use to describe immense wealth. Without acknowleding the immense power the immense wealth gives them.

My personal feeling is that the Rothschilds have found the "Oriental" economy more receptive to their philosophy than the "Occidental" economy. The introduction of capitalism in the People's Republic of China most likely was the result of the introduction of venture capitalism. Most likely funded in great part by the Rothschilds.

Good for China. Perhaps not so good for us. We live in a changing world. You have to hope that there is some wisdom behind the whims of the Rotchschilds and the others who follow their basic principle of economics. Control a nation's economy and you control the nation. Control the world's economy and you control the world.

The Rothschilds have a large extended family at this point. I suspect some of the "adopted" children are being disowned. For being too greedy. A virtue not recognized by the Rothschilds as such but rather a vice. The more you spread it around, the more you end up with. In the case of the Rothschild family, well, no one knows how much they have ended up with. Except it is in the trillions of dollars.

Obviously they know more about economies than the rest of us. Certainly more than the Bushes do.

The problem with credit is we borrow against income in this country rather than actual asset. What happens when the income disappears?

The best example of what happens is Enron. Its debt exceeded both its income and its assets. And became "easy pickings" for those who wanted the assets.

[Cary]

4. In econ 101 I was taught that there is only 1 immutable rule. . .

that everything will change.

I was also taught that Keynes taught us that only a complete idiot would allow the economy to get into a liquidity trap like the one Herbert Hoover allowed us to get into.

[lpbk2713]

5. BushCo has been knowingly writing checks that will come due on someone else's watch.

And they really don't care what party's watch it is. That is why he is in such disfavor with so many of his own people. But WTF does he care. Bush and Cheney got filthy rich by plundering the US Treasury and they don't have to worry about it any more. They will be waving and laughing at us from Paraguay this time next year.

:hi: :rofl: :hi:

[NorthernSpy]

6. all I know is, there's going to be a reckoning...

I fear the future.


:scared:

[demnan]

7. I chose number 4

based on some observations. Whenever we've had a war we had to pay for, it will take a couple of years for us to get back on our feet. Whoever wins the election will have to end the war. We will continue to have a horrible housing market and people won't be able to afford downpayments on homes. We will also continue to have decreasing and flat wages.

What will bring us around? Eventually new innovations in environmentally friendly aspects of the economy will start to reverse the economy around 2011.

Do I know what I'm talking about. Hell no! I'm just guessing.

[Jackpine Radical]

9. If this poll were limited to people who know what they're talking about,

there would be no responses.

As my favorite philosopher (Yogi Berra) once said, "The future is one of the hardest things there is to predict."

[Dj13Francis]

12. I don't know what I'm talking about?

That's what I was told back in 1996 when I predicted this crap. While it is impossible to make any specific predictions about the future, it is very possible to make inferences about where various trends will logically lead. There are many who've seen this coming for a very long time. Just because you don't share our gifts of insight, don't denegrate those who do have it.

[Jackpine Radical]

13. Emphasis on the word KNOW. Particularly in terms of timing.

I've thought the whole economy has been behaving in an unsustainable fashion for some time also, and in fact thought it would have crashed by now. I think Greenspan was right, in the mid-90's when he warned about "irrational exuberance" in the market. And iirc the Dow was in the 6-7K range when he issued his warning. Obviously, SOMETHING has been keeping it all together in some haywire fashion long past its natural expiration date. We are now facing potential catastrophe on many fronts. Housing, credit, energy prices, a collapsing dollar, etc.

[Rockholm]

15. Nostadamus? You predicted this? Sure ya did.

Just what "crap" did you predict? If you did predict whatever "crap" you are referring to, I hope you made a bunch of money.

[Dj13Francis]

17. I wrote a book.

"Philosophy for the Third Millennia". Written in 1996. Predicted it. Not making this up.

The relevant points were recently republished online.
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/9021

[cherokeeprogressive]

18. Your own words, in July of this year, say the book was never published.

"I wrote a book in 1996, entitled, “Philosophy for the Third Millennia”. You cannot find it in any bookstore, or anywhere for that matter except my closet. I was strongly “advised” not to publish it at the time, and to my discredit, I begrudgingly agreed to keep it to myself."

Did you publish it, or not?

http://justanothercoverup.com/?p=232

[Dj13Francis]

20. Long story.

Depends on the definition I guess. Upon completion I self published about 250 copies and distribted them to various publishers, and around to various people. Some of these I sold, some I gave away. I didn't make a lot of money, but I did make some. I was waiting to hear something from a publisher when I got the visit from THE MAN... I'm not going to go into the details except to say that I left town and divested myself from politics for about 10 years following that conversation.

[Justanothercoverup]

25. I'm The Primary Author/Owner Of Justanothercoverup

In regard Dj13Francis and his prediction of this financial catastrophe that seems to be engulfing the economy; I have known Mr. Francis for quite a while, and also knew about the "book" he was going to publish long ago. He is a guest writer who I wish would write more, but I can verify that it was MONTHS before he would publish anything, even after I knew about his predictions and I was happy when he did. My knowledge certainly doesn't date back to 1996, however, I knew about it way before the economy seemed to be on the verge of collapse.

Based on my personal knowledge of Mr. Francis, and communicating with him for a long while - it's obvious to me that he's telling the truth. I can understand the skepticism, as people have been known after the fact to claim they had predicted many different events, and for the most part, all of us are skeptical of anyone making such a claim, but as it pertains to this matter, I do have personal knowledge that Mr. Francis indeed is telling the truth. I just wish he would write more...

William Cormier

[donsu]

11. #6 will happen and then #8

nt

[screembloodymurder]

14. Capitalism panders to the worst aspects of human nature.

We will reap what we sow. If you've been to Camden, NJ, you have seen our future.

[porphyrian]

19. We're already in it, most people just can't tell yet or are in denial. -n/t

[Theres-a]

21. Uh-oh....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=322642&mesg_id=322642

[Rockholm]

22. You should add another option based on the replies here...

"How many DUers WANT there to be an economic calamity, thereby punishing all of "those" people who are well off, driving expensive foreign cars, living large in grand Eastern Establishment waterfront enclaves, toasting one another for their good deeds, sending their children to deluxe private schools with a path to the Ivy League." Remember, some of "those" people are "we" people and have worked very hard to have what we have and spend what we can on what we want.
Why is it that so many on DU fell that there is some "vow of poverty" that we are supposed to take to be Democrats. Please. Come to Massachusetts. I show you some rich Democrats. We do exist.

[HughMoran]

23. Why do some hope for misery for all?

I've worked my ass off to minimize the pain my children have to experience - is that a bad thing? I agree with your questioning of the motivations of some.

[Rockholm]

24. Thank you for your support.

I mean, come on. A terrible economy hurts all of us.