Why New WaPo 30% Poll for Barack Shows That Obama Will Now Win Iowa, 55 NET 1st + 2nd CHOICE vs. 45

[Dems Will Win]

Obama is now leading in Iowa with 30% to Clinton's 26%, Edwards at 22% (down 4%, seemingly going to Obama). Obama beats Clinton as most honest and trustworthy by 31! to 15%! And in "best experience to be President", Clinton has collpased from 50% to only 38%, a 12-point move among an electorate well-versed in the candidates. And Obama beats Clinton 30% to 20% in candidate "who best understands your problems".

The JJ Dinner gave Kerry the momentum in '03 and it now looks like the '07 JJ did the same for Obama.

Obama Finds Help in Iowa With a Focus on New Ideas

A growing focus on fresh ideas coupled with lingering doubts about Hillary Clinton’s honesty and forthrightness are keeping the Democratic presidential contest close in Iowa, with Barack Obama in particular mounting a strong race against the national front-runner.

Most Democratic likely voters in Iowa, 55 percent, say they’re more interested in a "new direction and new ideas" than in strength and experience, compared with 49 percent in July – a help to Obama, who holds a substantial lead among "new direction" voters.

Most significant number for Obama:

Change is beating Strength and Experience now 55-33%, a 22% difference and growing rapidly from the 10% lead Change had in the last poll! Clinton's campaign has been emphasizing experience, not change, but the electorate is moving in the opposite direction AND IT'S TOO LATE TO CHANGE PERCEPTIONS NOW.

Combine that with her far lesser ground game, not tipping the waitress, the JJ Dinner blowout by Obama, and Indies who love Obama, she has apparently lostIowa. Her only hope is Bill, which she is using as much as possible.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1051a1IowaDems.pdf

Let's not forget a few things first. Hillary is 2 MONTHS behind Obama and Edwards in establishing her ground game. She was goign to skip the state and then decided against it. Obama has the best ground organization (made of locals mostly - unlike Dean) that Iowa has ever seen for a Caucus.

This poll does NOT include most young voters with cell phones, let's keep remembering that, it's a land-line poll only.

Add to that an extra crush of Indies and re-registering Republicans (who go for Obama by 20% in the Iowa general election poll!), and how Clinton has collapsed in honesty, trustworthiness and strong leader areas and it now looks like Obama will win Iowa.

Especially telling in this poll is NET 1st and second choices where Obama beats Clinton 55-45. This is important in the Iowa Caucus because if your candidate falls under 15%, you must choose another!

You can't say this poll is early either, we're only 6 weeks away from the Caucus and the big O is making his move at exactly the right time.

Change and Charisma are winning the day over Experience, also in the Republican race where Huckabee will soon overtake Romney and might even ignite after winning Iowa.

So here's the prediction Obama and Huckabee win Iowa in 6 weeks.

You read it here.

It now appears that Clinton is going to lose the first vote of '08!

Could the general be Obama-Huckabee? Given that charisma has trumped experience in nearly every race since 1976, it very well could be. Look at Schwarzenegger in California. THANK GOD he is not allowed to run for President! (but Chuck Norris can)

I have run 30 county races as a political consultant and won 25 of them, and I'm telling you, Obama is now going to win Iowa. THis has been a long campaign and is being fought hard and it will only move more for the successful challengers from here. Bill can't save her -- because she's not Bill, and if anything he reminds people exactly that by appearing with her.

[Bitwit1234]

1. shoot fire and hell's bells

what a crock of................Obama won't win one state and will fade into oblivion...fact it he probably won't win re-election to the senate.

[aquart]

3. Stuff it. He put in the work and it's paying off.

We're not anywhere near discussing winning states. Right now, all we are talking about is winning Democrats. Although the OP did mention Republicans going for Obama which I find...an unfortunate basis for convincing Democrats to do anything.

[Dems Will Win]

7. But 20% of Republicans in Iowa are probably pretty nice people you know

AND THEY HAVE BEEN ABANDONED BY THEIR PARTY TO WALLOW IN POVERTY AND THEY ARE READY TO VOTE DEMOCRAT, LIKE IN THE DEPRESSION.

I say we accept'em!

Welcome Republicans for Obama!

[DFW]

4. If the Republicans run Alan Keyes again

Snagglepuss could win that Senate seat for the Democrats.

Obama gets re-elected to that Senate seat in a walk if he
fizzles out in the White House race unless the Republicans
find out how to resurrect Teddy Roosevelt.

[Bluebear]

2. It's going to be Edwards.

Edwards is polling highest among people who attended Iowa caucuses in 2004. Unless Obama has some magical fleet of GOTV buses, it will be Edwards.

[aquart]

5. Horse race!

Oh, to be the bookie on this game.

[Dems Will Win]

6. It might be, you're right. But Obama leading in second choices over

JE will likely put him over the top. Where will the Kucinich voters go? No doubt to Edwards and he will get many Richardson and Biden leftovers.

But the bulk of the below 15-percenters will go to Obama, at least according to the poll. And that will do it.

I think it will be Obama, then probably Edwards and Clinton in third. Richardson won't clear 15% in most districts and even if he tells people to go to Clinton, they won't.

[Blackhatjack]

14. I think the Iowa Independent Power Ranking is right --It will be Edwards.

I do have to take issue with one statement in the OP here.

Edwards by far has the best ground organization in Iowa.

[Dems Will Win]

8. Let's not forget that the Democratic front-runner often loses the race

this could be happening again. I think Obama has a long way after Iowa, but he's very close in NH and a win in Iowa would put him over the top in NH. Then he could win SC and be competitive on Feb 5 in the West, where he now lags.

Given that Clinton has Vilsack and most of the political establishment in Iowa, she should be 20 points ahead, not 4 behind.

[book_worm]

9. If Clinton loses Iowa I think her national numbers will also collapse.

[Dems Will Win]

10. Not only that, the Independents in NH will ignite for Obama and vote in the primary in

larger numbers if Indies come out big and win the caucus for him in Iowa. I doubt the Republicans will excite them as much in NH as Obama. That means Obama takes Iowa and New Hampshire!

Then Obama has even more money than Clinton for Feb. 5. Makes it very competitive, although she would likely still have a lead -- up until election day.

If Obama does well in CA and stops a Clinton delegate romp there, he has a chance.

[sallyseven]

11. Don't bet on it.

Polls go up and down and it usually depends on what the poll takers want it to say. She is well within the margin of error.

[illinoisprogressive]

12. i have heard that Bill is not drawing the crowds that he should. Just heard this.

[TwilightZone]

13. To be more accurate, it shows that he's ahead in one poll.

It certainly doesn't indicate that he'll "now win" any more than the prior polls showed that Edwards or Hillary was going to win then. In 2004, most Iowa voters didn't decide until the last few days.

[Blackhatjack]

15. Edwards just started running campaign ads in Iowa... Obama spent $5 mil, Hillary $3 mil...LINK

So far Obama spent $5 mil, Hillary $3 mil, and Edwards less than $200,000 on campaign ads in Iowa. That breaks down to Obama running 9 to 1, and Hillary 5 to 1, the number of ads Edwards has run.

ANd yet the race in Iowa is still a statistical dead heat.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2312635&mesg_id=2312635