Obama now polling much better than Clinton in General Election poll in Iowa, More Electable

[Dems Will Win]

Obama wipes out Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani in Iowa (good representative of the whole country usually) and also beats McCain 50-42.

Mrs. Clinton loses to McCain 48-44 and beats the other contenders by just 4-6 points that Obama is besting by 13-16 points!

20% of REPUBLICANS said they are voting OBAMA! with 7% UNDECIDED!

Only 10% to 13% of the Rs say Clinton.

Obama also does much better among independents, especially against McCain (losing by a few points), while Clinton's clock is cleaned by McCain among Indies by 12 points!

Among Dems, Clinton is 72% to 77%, while Obama is 79% to 84%.

This is a significant new poll and should be discussed and brought to the fromt. As Iowans get to know Obama, he ROMPS.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2d211d2a-ee13-40ab-8455-5a70b9b55bfe

[book_worm]

1. I honestly don't think Sen. Clinton will win Iowa--the ? is will it be Obama or Edwards

and if Clinton doesn't win Iowa I think you will see her national support dwindle.

[Tellurian]

3. I honestly think she will win Iowa-- Handily, And be the Nominee! NT

[Solar_Power]

7. I agree. While I'd like Edwards to be the nominee, Hillary has it all wrapped up

[Tellurian]

11. We never go there thinking anything is wrapped up..

We may speculate off the cuff but continue to campaign as if we are 20 pts behind...

[saracat]

15. I don 't think so. The RW created Democratic front runner has been over exposed and it running out

of gas.Unfortunately this candidate doesn't improve with exposture.

[rocktivity]

8. I'm glad you realize that her winning "handily" is the key

Because if she wins by only a couple of points, her opponents will not back down--and the voters will start seeing her as a mere mortal.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Tellurian]

10. Hillary will come out on Top, as I believe Biden will finish 2nd to her...

The disappointments will be Edwards and Obama finishing 3rd and 4th..or worse 5th and 6th..

[saracat]

2. I don't doubt it. Edwards and obama are doing well.The internal polls are probably much better.

Some polls even have them leading.But the only polls that really count are the votes! I think the "alleged front runner" has been over hyped and doesn't improve with more exposture.

[Blackhatjack]

12. The spectre of 'inevitability' has no effect in Iowa...n/t

[Blackhatjack]

25. In the Iowa Independent Power Ratings Edwards finished first...n/t

[silverweb]

4. No time to relax...

Keep working! Keep inspiring people!

We can do this!


GObama!

[DFW]

5. The way it looks now

I think that HRC has a less than even chance of winning Iowa and a better
than even chance of winning the nomination and the presidency. I also think
that the way it look to me now means absolutely nothing, and I totally expect
to see things differently within weeks, maybe sooner.

[rocktivity]

6. Bad news for Hillary: Iowa is ANY Dem's race.

If she doesn't win decisively, the other candidates will realize she's quite mortal and pour it on.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Cha]

9. hillary's "mortal"

alright..and I hope cnn's little try at elevating her to god status will blow up in their collective big ol' ugly fascist face.

[saracat]

13. heh! heh! Me too!

[aquart]

14. Choose Obama because he appeals to Republicans????

But I thought that's why we shouldn't vote for Hillary?

[JackORoses]

16. there is a difference between appealing to Republicans and being one, don't you know this?

sHillary is still a Goldwater Girl at Heart

[aquart]

18. So the Republicans won't vote for her because she's one of them?

But they will vote for Obama because he won't support their issues?

Oh, golly. Poor little me can't make any sense of that.

[Blackhatjack]

17. Actually Hillary does not appeal to Repubs, but she does to corporate interests...n/t

[aquart]

19. So Obama has no appeal for business?

[Blackhatjack]

21. I am not sure what you mean and how you arrived at this assertion. Explain?

[aquart]

27. Corporate interests are NOT business interests?

Perhaps you should explain. Corporate interests, I am told, like Hillary. Corporate = business in my humble vocabulary. Since "corporate interests" was pointed out sneeringly, I assume that Obama has nothing to do with such evil things. If business does favor Obama, please correct me.

[Dems Will Win]

22. He's appealing to the Iowa Republicans because he promises to end the partisanship

of the last 30 years, not because he has Republican policies. They just like him.

[aquart]

24. RUDY????

They don't know him very well, do they?

[TahitiNut]

20. Remarkable. More Dems would vote 'R' than Reps vote 'D' if Clinton is the nominee.

When I look at the 'crossover' vote (i.e. Democrats voting 'R' and Republicans voting 'D'), it seems Clinton loses more in the 'trade' than Obama.

In Giuliani v. Clinton, it's 19% v. 10%. In Giuliani v. Obama, it's 14% v. 20% ... a 15%-point swing for Obama.
In Romney v. Clinton, it's 20% v. 13%. In Romeny v. Obama, it's 13% v. 19% ... a 15%-point swing for Obama.
In Huckabee v. Clinton, it's 18% v. 11%. In Romeny v. Obama, it's 9% v. 20% ... a 18%-point swing for Obama.

It seems the triangulation she's trying loses the Democratic Party far more than it gains, even as the GOPher gets more conservative!

[Dems Will Win]

26. That's very true, had not noticed that, thanks.

[aquart]

23. Pretending McCain is in the race is funny.

[KharmaTrain]

28. Caucses Aren't Popularity Contests

Unless you've experienced, it's hard to describe what goes on inside an Iowa caucus. It's part politics, part social event, part business...it's a very intimate and unique experience...a lot different than an open primary.

The Iowa winner almost always is the candidate with the best organization...the most people on the ground, money and ability to get their people to the caucuses. You have to arrange to get hundreds of people to hundreds of parties in all sections of the state at a specific time on a specific date. Polls don't get these people there, organizations do.

Because of this, it does give a candidate both an advantage and disadvantage...Huckabee is a perfect example. He's put a good organization on the ground, but he's got little beyond it. He can win Iowa but doesn't have much anywhere else. Inversely, Ron Paul has used Iowa very well...energized a base that has now expanded into other areas. His networking is raising money that puts even more "boots on the ground" in other states. It's really similar to what Dr. Dean was able to do in '04.

The upshot is, national polls have little affect in Iowa. Obama not showing up at a dinner or Hillary not visiting the local fair or Edwards not liking corn dogs will cost them more votes in the causes than what the bobbletalkingheads have to say.

I'm looking forward to this years caucus...sounds like it's gonna be a big party.