Al Gore Fans: Did You Know Gore FIRED Mark Penn?

[CorpGovActivist]

***************************************************
Clinton's PowerPointer
With Data and Slides, a Pollster Guides Campaign Strategy

By Anne E. Kornblut
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 30, 2007; Page A01

It was fairly simple, Mark J. Penn said calmly to Vice President Al Gore, reporting the findings of an exhaustive survey he had conducted in the early stages of the 2000 presidential campaign. Voters liked Gore's policies. They just didn't like Gore.

Gore laughed, according to people who attended the meeting. He had heard that before. But the vice president, worried about the effect President Bill Clinton's scandals might have on his campaign, had another question for his pollster: Was there any evidence of this "Clinton fatigue" that people kept talking about?

"I'm not tired of him," Penn replied. "Are you?"

It was a flippant response -- and the final straw for Gore, who had long been wary of Penn and concerned that his real loyalty was to Clinton and first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton. His senior advisers agreed, regarding Penn as arrogant and controlling, someone who pushed the boundaries of his job by dispensing strategic advice rather than simply interpreting data. Shortly after the meeting with Gore, Penn was fired. One of the party's most prominent pollsters sat out the presidential campaign, but he signed up that year with a familiar face making her inaugural run for office in Penn's native New York -- Hillary Clinton.

...

Full story link
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On his online biography at Burson-Marsteller, we learn that: "Mark has helped to elect over 25 leaders in the United States, Asia, Latin America and Europe."

Besides Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, who are the national leaders he helped catapult into the corner office?

And where - oh, where - does he see 360 Electoral College votes right now?

Edited to add: In January 2001, with the Bible still warm from Bush's oath-taking, Mark Penn penned this explanation at the DLC website for how Gore "turned a win into a draw," with poll results shown at the bottom of the page.

- Dave

[Richard Steele]

1. K&R

[aquart]

2. Waiting for you to reveal the crime.

There's a crime here, right?

[CorpGovActivist]

4. No, Those Who Value Gore's Judgment...

... may find this to be of interest.

- Dave

[aquart]

7. You're saying the guy was fired because...

He wasn't working hard for Gore because he wanted to work for Hillary? And now he's working for Hillary? So we can assume he IS working his butt off for her?

Was that your point?

[CorpGovActivist]

9. I'm Saying That the Washington Post Published an A01 Story...

... describing the circumstances of his firing from the Gore 2000 campaign.

Whether or not those who value Vice President Gore's judgment find those circumstances relevant to the information that Mr. Penn provides the Democratic primary voters during primary season is up to each to interpret for him/herself.

I've been a longtime fan of the Vice President, ever since I saw him speak in 1990. For me, this report resonated.

- Dave

[Cha]

16. Yeah, it resonates with me,

too, and I've been a fan only since 2000 :) Only because I got into politics late in the game.

[CorpGovActivist]

37. Late in the Game, Eh?

I had a TIME and Newsweek subscription when I was 8. No kidding!

:rofl:

- Dave

[orleans]

68. at 8? so...how was your childhood up till then? n/t

[CorpGovActivist]

69. Blissfully Abnormal n/t

[burythehatchet]

17. nicely handled.

[Cha]

19. Beatcha! :)

Wasn't it, though?!

[aquart]

21. Sweetie, there isn't a single quote from Al Gore in this piece. Not one.

Either he refused or they didn't bother to ask. Yet you still believe you now know what Al Gore thought about Mark Penn? AND Hillary Clinton?

[CorpGovActivist]

24. I Don't Mind Having a Civil Discussion...

... about the article, or about others.

I will do due diligence to see if I can find a disavowal of the piece by Gore or his office.

- Dave

[Forkboy]

32. Why always calling people "sweetie" and "dear"?

[CorpGovActivist]

34. It's a Dimunition ...

... that only works on those who let it.

- Dave

[Tom Joad]

49. well, Gore went on to nominate the absolutely worst vp choice in Dem history.

i would rather had voted for electroshocked Eagleton.

[mrbluto]

75. I agree - it demonstrates Gore's judgement.

And I like it.

He ran a national campaign.

He sought an independent stance rather than ride on coat-tails.

He dropped a guy that works on Blackwater's behalf.

He thought he could win without those and a number of other encumbrances to his future latitude to govern, and reduce compromises to his integrity with the special deals most use to attain office.

Was he wrong?

No.

What he was wrong about is whether there would be a fair election.

I doubt he would make the same mistake this time.

Nor would the people.

He'd win....

...and be inaugurated.

[CorpGovActivist]

77. Now, Now, It's Not Nice to Bring up Mr. Penn's "Other" Clients...

... what happens in the bordello, stays in the bordello.

- Dave

[AlGore-08.com]

13. The article doesn't do a good job of explaining, but Penn has serious shortcomings as a polster

Ezra Klien does a better job explaining in his review of Penn's book, "Microtrends":

http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/3320/trending_towards_inanity/

Trending Toward Inanity
Mark Penn’s new book, Microtrends, is so epically awful that it could take the entire polling industry down with it
By Ezra Klein

(snip)

I first flipped through Microtrends while at the YearlyKos convention, and Penn, astonishingly, seemed to comprehend the importance of the loosely connected, grassroots-driven, progressive movement’s flowering. “I suspect the lefty boom will bring a surge in the promotion of sheer creative energy,” Penn writes, “driven by an idea that is at the heart of this book—that small groups of people, sharing common experiences, can increasingly be drawn together to rally for their interests.” I was shocked—Penn was speaking admirably of “lefties,” not trying to recast them as moderates, not trying to write them out of the party? He was endorsing open-source politics, rather than a top-down structure? I had misjudged the man!

I read on. Penn was talking about actual lefties—people who are born left-handed. Increasingly grim, I absorbed the first hard blows of Penn’s interpretative technique: “More lefties,” he enthuses, “could mean more military innovation: Famous military leaders from Charlemagne to Alexander the Great to Julius Caesar to Napoleon—as well as Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf—were left-handed.” He uses the same thunderingly awful logic to argue that we’ll see more art and music greats, more famous criminals, more great comedians, more “executive greatness,” and better tennis and basketball players.

This is what statisticians—or anyone who has taken a statistics class—call a “correlation/causation error.” It is not enough to cherrypick a couple famed military leaders, notice that they’re lefties and assume that something intrinsic to their handedness caused their tactical genius. It is not enough to say that past cultures discouraged left-handedness and use that as a stand-in for discouraging creativity of all sorts. To say that Bill Gates is right-handed does not suggest that a greater proportion of right-handed people would mean more Bill Gateses. For a professional pollster to imply that correlation equals causation is like a firefighter trying to put out flames by tossing a toaster into the blaze—it bespeaks a complete unfamiliarity with the relevant techniques.

(snip)

This isn’t an isolated example. In a chapter called “Aspiring Snipers,” Penn explains, “It’s the rare moment when a poll stops me in my tracks and reorients my understanding of things.” One such poll was conducted last fall, when Bendixen and Associates asked 601 young Californians what they’d be doing in 10 years. About 1 percent—so, a handful—said they’d be snipers. Certainly, that’s an odd reply. But Penn never mentions that the Bendixen poll had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent—four being a larger number than one. Additionally, it’s meaningless without further study. Anyone in the age bracket would attribute it to video games, or snipers being, let’s admit it, quite cool. Yet Penn, based on no follow-up interviews, detects a “new patriotism,” and a desire “to master complex mathematical formulas like how distance or wind might affect the path of the bullet.” This simply isn’t professional work. (It is bitter, though. Penn concludes the chapter by complaining, “Ask anyone in politics and they will agree—they face ‘snipers’ every day who are trying to find one flinch, one out-of-place word to put on Drudge or YouTube.” It takes a special sort of self-regard to compare the danger of being embedded on YouTube to being hunted down in urban warfare.)

(more... )

Once you know this, it's no surprise Gore canned him...

[CorpGovActivist]

18. Penn's Palantir...

... is not an HD model, that's for sure. Data correlations are the least of his cardinal data crunching errors.

- Dave

[Nostradammit]

65. HD model palantir!!!

Love it!

:)

[CorpGovActivist]

70. Penn's Palantir...

... couldn't tell an orc from an elf.

; )

- Dave

[w4rma]

52. Imho, Penn has an agenda and tries to spin the data to fit it. (nt)

[CorpGovActivist]

53. Mark Twain: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics"

Penn must've thought that Twain was ranking from worst to best.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=lies+damned+statistics+twain

- Dave

[rosesaylavee]

3. Yes - Knew that.

thanks for the link.

[aquart]

11. Remember: This is WaPo's interpretation of events.

It isn't Gore's autobiography.

[CorpGovActivist]

20. Gore: Nobel - 2007; Penn - Pollster of the Year

"Mark won the Pollster of the Year award, given every 4 years, in both 1996 and 2000, the top honor in his profession, from the American Association of Political Consultants. Mark has written for publications including the New York Times and the Washington Post, and has appeared frequently on networks including CNN and Fox News."

http://www.burson-marsteller.com/About_Us/Global_Leadership/Lists/GlobalLeadership/DispForm.aspx?ID=1&nodeName=Global%20Leadership&SubTitle=Mark%20J.%20Penn

- Dave

[aquart]

23. Uh huh. Except Al Gore isn't quoted. Not one actual word.

Why is that?

[CorpGovActivist]

29. See #28 below n/t

[rosesaylavee]

64. Ha.

Thanks for drawing me a picture.

[CorpGovActivist]

82. What If Gore Plans to Publish...

... soon?

- Dave

[Bjornsdotter]

5. Breaking!

...wow 7+ year old news!

I still like Gore.

Cheers

[CorpGovActivist]

6. If It's News to a Recently Converted Gore Fan...

... it's still news.

; )

- Dave

[aquart]

8. But what does it say?

Other than Gore made a poor hiring choice and Hillary made a smart one?

[CorpGovActivist]

12. Why Not Read the Article...

... and draw your own conclusions?

- Dave

[aquart]

25. My conclusion is that these opinions are not Gore's

Since Gore isn't quoted. They are other people's opinions of Gore's opinions. And we have no idea who these other people are or what they're doing lately and which candidate they're doing it for.

But, of course, WaPo has never lied or distorted a story.

[CorpGovActivist]

27. I'm Open to Favorable Data...

... regarding Mr. Penn's accuracy and methods, especially as they relate to the 360 Electoral College votes he sees in the offing.

- Dave

[SammyWinstonJack]

10. Why does it matter, really? Gore isn't running and so who cares?

And I am not a "recently converted Gore fan". I have been a fan of Gore since 2000. What is your point?

[CorpGovActivist]

22. I Value Gore's Judgment...

... enough to at least wonder about the numbers Penn is providing during the primary season.

- Dave

[aquart]

26. Gore isn't quoted. So you don't know his judgement.

You only know what unknown people SAY was his judgment.

[CorpGovActivist]

28. Either Penn Was Fired, Or He Bailed...

... if he was fired, then I think it is safe to infer that Gore fired him (suggesting a lack of confidence).

If he bailed mid-campaign, then that would be a different story.

- Dave

[aquart]

30. But what's the story?

Gore fired a pollster he didn't like or that Hillary hired the pollster that Gore didn't like. But if Gore didn't like him because he liked Hillary better, then Gore was right to fire him but Hillary was quite smart to hire him because he likes her best.

So where is the story? And what, dear God, is your point?

[CorpGovActivist]

31. You're Right...

... I'm not making any sense at all. Yet, you persist in trying to understand my point.

BTW, I hope you will agree that the quoted material in the updated OP *is* the work of Mr. Penn.

- Dave

[aquart]

33. Why would I bother. I don't care about him.

I care that a story is purporting to give Gore's opinions without any of Gore's opinions being in the story. You seem to think this Mark Penn is important. I can't imagine why. Gore FIRED him. Big deal. Hillary HIRED him. Great crime. Why wouldn't she hire someone who likes her? Should she follow Gore's lead and hire someone who doesn't like her and then fire him?

Still don't get what YOUR point is.

[CorpGovActivist]

35. The Point of the OP Is Simple...

... those who value Vice President Gore's opinion *may* find this story to be of interest, as they digest Mr. Penn's pronouncements this primary season (e.g., the 360 Electoral Votes claim he put out this week).

- Dave

[aquart]

39. Well, that was completely circular.

Since there is no evidence Gore was EVER contacted for this article. And the only thing that it does actually say about Gore is that he fired Penn for preferring the Clintons to him.

OH! So you're saying that Penn will distort polls that he gives Hillary...although accurate polling is vital to know how to distribute a campaign's resources, isn't it?

Or are you saying he won't smart mouth Hillary the way he did Gore?

STILL not getting what is supposed to be proved by this article.

[CorpGovActivist]

43. If Karl Rove Has Taught Us Anything...

... it's that the methods and accuracy of the "chief campaign strategist" matter.

If you don't find the Gore-Penn rift informative as you decide how to parse Mr. Penn's pronouncements this primary season, that is your prerogative.

For those who value the former Vice President's judgment, and who think that this rift may reflect upon Mr. Penn's datasets, that is their prerogative, too.

- Dave

[earth mom]

63. The point is is that Penn may have UNDERMINED or SABOTAGED Gores campaign.

The underbelly of politics is not pretty or ethical. No doubt the Clintons both know that-and know it VERY well.

Wonder how much mud the Clinton campaign will sling if Gore decides to run, eh? Buckets no doubt. :puke:

[CorpGovActivist]

71. Penn Himself Was Quick on the Draw with the Blame Report on Gore

http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=269&contentid=2922

"Why Gore Lost"

- Dave

[Cha]

14. Yeah, Rec'd!

"Don't like Gore"..Why cause the corporatemediawhores said he was "stiff" and bushit is the little cheerleading asshole everyone wants to snort coke with?

mark penn sounds like,.. whadda ya need enemies for when ya got mark penn shitting on you?

I hope his little foray into hillary's pres ambitions are his waterfuckingloo.

[Uncle Joe]

15. This line needs to be taken with a boulder size grain of salt.

"It was fairly simple, Mark J. Penn said calmly to Vice President Al Gore, reporting the findings of an exhaustive survey he had conducted in the early stages of the 2000 presidential campaign. Voters liked Gore's policies. They just didn't like Gore."

Anyone on the face of the planet can be puffed up or demonized, should the corporate media decide to do so. As the primary political champion of the Internet, Al Gore would never be popular with the media. The Washington Post is a prime example as they did nothing but trash his reputation for the better part of two years prior the selection of 2000. In spite of this media onslaught an "unpopular" Al Gore garnered more votes than any President since Ronald Reagen's second term, more votes than Bill Clinton ever did in spite of having the corporate media firmly against him and half a million more counted votes than the pretender in chief. Furthermore anyone that believes Bill Clinton's scandals didn't hurt or helped Al Gore, particularly in the moderate to conservative states is seriously deluding them self.

I believe if Al Gore fired Mark Penn, he deserved it.

[CorpGovActivist]

38. VP Gore Is Very Self-Deprecating...

... and knows his own weaknesses as well as - or better than - most.

I find the Gore-Penn rift interesting and telling.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

36. OP Edited to Add Last Paragraph n/t

[CorpGovActivist]

40. Now, about Those 25 World Leaders He Helped Elect...

... which countries are we talking about?

"Mark has helped to elect over 25 leaders in the United States, Asia, Latin America and Europe."

- Dave

[w4rma]

54. Nations with right-wing near-dictatorships. (nt)

[CorpGovActivist]

56. The Only Three He Calls out by Name...

... are the Clintons and Tony Blair.

I'd like to know who the others are.

- Dave

[Bluebear]

41. So he should have. nt

[robbedvoter]

42. Gore's judgment at the time was also to pick Joementum for VP

I have no idea who this Penn is, nor do I support Hillary, but the "Clinton fatigue" was a GOP crock of s* - and for Gore to even want to poll on it, doesn't show a brilliant judgment.
Mind you, he got much, much better since ;-)(I'd support him in a NY minute)

[CorpGovActivist]

45. Maybe the Veep Has Commented...

... on his current viewpoint on Mr. Penn. I'll look.

Call it a hunch, but I don't think he'd pick Lieberman again, were he to run.

- Dave

[Uncle Joe]

44. Your edited link only reinforces my belief

that Mark Penn should have been fired as he couldn't or didn't want to see the big picture as to what was happening in the nation.

Was he asleep during the eight year Clinton witch hunt as the corporate media couldn't get enough of scandal each and every day from breakfast to the midnight snack? Maybe he was dozing while Bill Clinton went on live television and turned a family betrayal in to a national one thereby justifying the witch hunt in the minds of many? Did he think it was a coincidence the media slandered and libeled Al Gore over the preposterous lie among many others that "Al Gore claimed to have invented the Internet" when he did no such thing and that Bush's advisers had enough sense to have him run on the ridiculous premise that he was going to "restore honor and integrity to the White House"?

None of this is mentioned in Penn's analysis.

[CorpGovActivist]

46. You Were Charitable...

... to finish your post with the word "analysis," I think.

- Dave

[mrreowwr_kittty]

47. Al Gore won without him. Bush was installed by SCOTUS. nt

[CorpGovActivist]

51. LOL I Wrote a Letter to Scalia...

... that probably put me on a "list."

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

48. LOL Dave! Just felt like getting beat with a Hillary Hammer DID YOU??? LOL

Didn't you know --- You can't even hint at any facts that even imply that Hillary is not 'the goodest and bestests candidate there ever was!"

Of course your point is well taken.

It tells us all a lot that Gore did not trust Penn, and for good reason. And Gore is no worthless, uneducated, dopey ne'er do well.

But my goodness, next time just preface your post with "Time for Hillary Supporters to Come Beat Me over the Head With a Baseball Bat Again!" LOL

[CorpGovActivist]

50. I'd Still Wager That Mark Penn Didn't Even Pass the QRR...

... but I sure as heck did.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=harvard+qrr

There is no way he can show credible datasets that reflect 360 Electoral College votes.

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

55. And that my friend is the great unspoken secret about the Hillary Campaign.

[CorpGovActivist]

57. The Empress' New Datasets

Either she believes his data shows 360 Electoral College votes ... in which case I've got some lovely invisible pearls and diamonds to sell her for her inaugural ball ...

... or she knows he's fudging the pronouncements.

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

58. This is the core belief that drives her need to 'triangulate' on all issues....

The idea is to alienate as few groups and individuals as possible in hopes of cobbling together a coalition just large enough to eke out a win.

When pinned down to give substantive answers to hard questions, Hillary does not do nearly as well. When it comes to creating an impression that she is capable, she does much better.

However, Repubs are not going to let her get away with that in the General Election if she is the DEM Nominee.

[CorpGovActivist]

59. I Might Have Bought Penn's Pronouncement...

... if he'd said "we see 290."

Someone in the primary campaign is going to have to hit hard on this, to force a backpedal, concession, and revised data.

Americans have suffered enough from cooked corporate books, without cooked campaign datasets getting in on the act.

- Dave

[Lord Helmet]

60. well that explains a lot

[CorpGovActivist]

81. Doesn't It? The Behind-the-Scenes Stuff...

... is fascinating.

- Dave

[lildreamer316]

61. It took me a minuite, but I got ya.

Sorry, I am a bit slow this evening.

Interesting. Verrrry interesting.

[CorpGovActivist]

72. Isn't It, Thought? n/t

[dave29]

62. For what it's worth the Clintons already have been in bed with such luminaries

as Dick "the foot" Morris, and James "I'm married to evil" Carville. That Gore would lose Penn, and the Clinton's would wind up with him doesn't surprise me in the least.

[CorpGovActivist]

73. Carville on Crack...

... couldn't be much funnier than he is now. I almost feel sorry for Mary.

- Dave

[BenDavid]

66. Well hell! And Gore hired Bob Strum? Never won an election

If a person wants to run for the presidency the first thing you do IS NOT HIRE BOB STRUM.

[Blackhatjack]

67. Why do you think the Shrumster retired and wrote a fictitious 'tell all' book trashing Dems?

IMHO it was one of 2 disasterous decisions that Al Gore made, but Gore still won the election and had the SCOTUS swoop down and 'install' the world's greatest idiot as 'prezdent.'

(The other --Gore took incredibly bad advice in addressing the the Florida fiasco).

Shrum went on to 'trash' Kerry and Edwards as well. He made up stuff to shield himself from blame, which he could not verify or prove with evidence. And he released the book during Edwards' Campaign for President 2008 without as much as a heads up to his campaign. A total worm in my book.

[CorpGovActivist]

80. A Total Worm? Mark Twain Might've Put It...

... "liars, damned liars, and statisticians."

; )

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

74. The Only Reason I Watch Shrum...

... when he's on, is to see what whirling dervish spin of a notion needs to be factualized and recontextualized.

- Dave

[UTUSN]

76. GORE is great & 2000 was a coup, but GORE made his share of mistakes:

* Joementum.

* not using Bill CLINTON.

* long list of trendy-clueless consultants.

* half-dead Warren CHRISTOPHER running the post-coup campaign.

* whassisname -- David BOIES --, the supposedly brilliant lawyer handling the coup court case.

[CorpGovActivist]

78. Agreed on All Points n/t

[CorpGovActivist]

79. Created Himself President as an Undergrad

"As President of PSB, a position he has held since 1975 when he was an undergraduate at Harvard, Mark focuses on providing research-based communications strategy to political figures, corporations and crisis situations."

http://www.burson-marsteller.com/About_Us/Global_Leadership/Lists/GlobalLeadership/DispForm.aspx?ID=1&nodeName=Global%20Leadership&SubTitle=Mark%20J.%20Penn

- Dave