Possible mega-disaster developing in Bay on Bengal

[RL3AO]

The media has yet to pick up on this but a very strong cyclone (a hurricane over there) has developed and could threaten the Bangladesh area over the next week. Combining the low elevation and incredible population density (2000+/sq mile) this is a storm capable of having a death toll approaching that of the Christmas tsunami. In 1970, the Bhola Cyclone killed 300,000 to 500,000. In 1991, a cyclone hit Bangladesh and killed 138,000 and left 10,000,000 homeless. I'll keep you updated if you guys want.

I found a few blogs mentioning it.

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/hurricanes-storms/cyclone-sidr-47111211
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Bhola_cyclone
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Bangladesh_cyclone

[malaise]

1. We had a thread early this morning

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2264846&mesg_id=2264846

[Tuesday Afternoon]

2. Holy. Moly.

:wow:

[RL3AO]

3. Here is the forecast track

The worst place for it to hit is Calcutta and eastward of Calcutta.

[knitter4democracy]

5. That thing is nasty!

Are they evacuating at all? Hell, I would. Even considering India's probably better than we were in Katrina, I'd still get the hell out.

[RL3AO]

6. God no.

The place issuing warnings on this are more incompetent than the Bush administration. The latest "offical" advisory has this as a 65 mph tropical storm.

[TheWraith]

13. Not to mention the population of Calcutta is 4.5 million people. NT

[knitter4democracy]

29. You're kidding! People need to know to start evacuating now!

I know Calcutta's freakin' huge, but surely there's a way to get people out of there and to higher ground.

[Audio_Al]

33. Anyone reading this on the Internet with any suggestions?

Perhaps it's being covered in other languages.

We just talked to a Microsoft technical support person on the east coast of India yesterday. No mention made of it during a four-hour telephone call.

[renate]

84. I doubt that evacuation is even a remote possibility, unfortunately

There's no way 13 million people can get out of there. For one thing, few people have transportation of their own. Those autorickshaws can get a lot of people into a tiny vehicle, but there are only so many autorickshaws. And traffic is already barely controlled chaos.

Even on regular work days, the trains are so crowded that some people are actually hanging onto the outsides of them. I suppose that if that level of overcrowding were maintained 24 hours a day, a lot more people would be able to leave. But like I said, for a good chunk of the day, the trains are already operating at way over maximum capacity.

Calcutta isn't quite on the coast--it's about 100 miles inland. So maybe that'll help. :scared:

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Ok if it hits calcuta

the Indian gov'ment will face quite the crisis

[Emit]

4. YIKES! n/t

[starroute]

7. Currently category 3, to be category 4 by tomorrow

[aikoaiko]

8. In that second image, the cyclone looks like a big zit that needs to be popped

If only it were so....

Good luck Bangladesh.

[gateley]

9. God forgive me for thinking this, but maybe the government of India thinks

thousands - -maybe millions? - of deaths might not be a bad thing?

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. That is bangladesh

but that's ok

[gateley]

17. I was thinking Bangladesh and typed India, I think because it's been on my

mind lately (Pakistan, and all). Thanks! :hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. It may still hit India

and neither country has a mature civil defense organization...

If it hits Calcuta, that is a 4+ million city.

It will make Katrina (and Tabasco) look like walks in the park

[gateley]

19. I'll be keeping an eye on it - and the people in my prayers. nt

[DemoTex]

10. I'm glad Dr. DemoTex is out of India .. for a while.

I've got too much to worry about with her on these client trips (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Poland, and now Australia, Japan, and South Korea).

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Oh my god

but there is no global warmng, there is no global warming.. there is no global warming

Repeat often enough...

Mexico just got flooded and now this

There is no global warming

I can almost hear it

DAMN IT how many of these disasters will it take?

[Uncle Joe]

15. Lord have mercy , that's a monster size looking cyclone! n/t

[KoKo]

16. Please keep us posted...this looks terrible and we need to pray or vibe..

for our Fellow Planet Earthers that they survive this monster thing...

[Shallah Kali]

20. Yes please pray, send good vibes, beam love even if just for one minute

:grouphug:

[Bluebear]

21. Horrifying!! And not "boo" on American news stations. nt

[Audio_Al]

26. Last night, the History Channel repeated one of its Mega-Disaster programs.

http://www.history.com/minisite.do?content_type=mini_home&mini_id=1401

This hurricane/cyclone strengthening possibility was covered, but it was depicted as a storm aimed at the East Coast of the U.S.

Other possible disasters were: asteroid impact with resulting tsunami and clouds, nuclear power disaster, melting polar ice, projected hurricanes with sea depths of 15 feet over Washington, DC and other East Coast locations.

The show was so upsetting that my wife turned it off.

http://www.history.com/minisite.do?content_type=Minisite_Generic&content_type_id=745&display_order=1&mini_id=1401

[RL3AO]

22. Latest image

[ellisonz]

23. Yikes!

[Poiuyt]

24. Oh dear, I have a friend in the eastern side of India right now

He's supposed to be coming home this week. He was supposed to be back here on the 15th, which I guess would mean he would have to fly out of there on Wednesday. I don't like the looks of this.

[Audio_Al]

25. K & R. Not sure if this is the same link as yours. Time change confusion, but here it is.

From: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/cyclone-sidr-47111214

[RL3AO]

27. UPDATE: Now category 4 on Saffir-Simpson scale

Even worse here is the U.S. Navy forecast track.



I circled the area where it would be a total disaster if struck.

[BoneDaddy]

28. That whole area

has traditionally been a real hell when it comes to the cyclone season.

[Audio_Al]

32. Kicked again. Because it's far away, there's little or no coverage on this.

[RL3AO]

30. UPDATE: Forecasted landfall just east of Calcutta

The area it is targeting has a very low elevation and an incredible population density. I hope the UN is prepared for a disaster on the scale of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Of course, hopefully it will not be that bad.

[Audio_Al]

31. PLEASE READ THIS. Thanks. Unbelievable so few DUers have joined this thread today.

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/hurricanes-storms/cyclone-sidr-47111309

[alfredo]

53. I started one yesterday before they showed it weakening from

[Audio_Al]

34. Holy cow... and no pun intended. RL3AO, it looks like a direct hit on Calcutta!

[lovuian]

35. Global Warming is HERE NOW

http://youtube.com/watch?v=TQVqcdx5RzM

its not 50 years away its here NOW

May God protect them

http://youtube.com/watch?v=eZ-7uKPVbFs

[bdamomma]

112. global warming is here is correct.

so sad. Storms will just be getting worse until all of us unite to stop or just try to slow it down, what kind of world are we leaving to our children?

[AuntPatsy]

36. This is the first that I've heard of it, I hope they are prepared, I can't believe

how little attention such a storm is getting?

[Audio_Al]

38. Just spent about 20 minutes on the Internet... finally found THIS!

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=14620



Maybe it's the colors -- maybe my love for Indian music and Indian food -- I read Dan Simmons' book "Calcutta" and identified with that city. I've never been there.

Respectfully,

Audio Al

[AuntPatsy]

39. Beautiful picture but obviously a deadly one as well, just recently I was asked

if I had ever tried Indian cuisine, I said no, I was told I should try it and that I would not be disappointed.

I hear good things and bad things concerning India, I guess until one actually visits a place its hard to have a very good perspective from second hand observations.

[RestoreGore]

37. This is huge

I will send good vibes their way. Can't imagine the devastation this will cause if it hits as a 4.

[RL3AO]

40. This is the absolute worst situation for any storm in the world.

A storm hitting near Calcutta putting the largest storm surge directly over an area that is less than 15 feet above sea level. And unlike Katrina, this will flood an much larger area with a much larger population. The Ganges Delta alone has 120 million people. The rain fall will cause incredible inland flooding. The surge will destroy everything near the coast. And rainfall in the mountains will cause incredible flooding even further inland. The death toll this storm could cause is unimaginable.

[karlrschneider]

41. It probably will fizzle out very soon.

...

[RL3AO]

45. I don't see any meteorlogical reason why it would.

It could weaken some, but about 2 days ago the computer models had this system almost completely gone by this time. It is still a cat 3/4. Even if the wind shear picks up, the storm is strong enough to create its own environment (called an anti-cyclone). I hope you are right, but I just don't see how you can be. Sadly.

[Poiuyt]

48. It is forecast to weaken as it approaches Calcutta

This story was released by Bloomberg at about 10:30 PM Eastern

Tropical Cyclone Sidr Heads Across Bay of Bengal for Kolkata
By Aaron Sheldrick

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Cyclone Sidr moved across the Bay of Bengal packing winds of 213 kilometers (133 miles) per hour on a path for Kolkata in India, according to the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The eye of Sidr, a Category 4 storm, was 989 kilometers south of Kolkata at 11:30 p.m. local time yesterday, the latest advisory on the center's Web site said. The storm was moving north at 13 kilometers per hour.

Sidr's winds were gusting to 259 kilometers per hour and waves in the vicinity of the storm's eye were 10 meters (33 feet) high, according to the advisory. The cyclone is expected to maintain strength today before weakening as it approaches Kolkata, formerly known as Calcutta, and the nearby west coast of Bangladesh late tomorrow.

more -

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=a1acxS2_gak0&refer=india

[RL3AO]

49. I guess we will see.

Even if it weakens it will not cause the storm surge to lessen which is what will cause the deaths.

[Strelnikov_]

56. Yes. Both Katrina and Rita weakened before landfall

But did little to reduce the surge that had already formed. Energy has been transferred to the water in the form of hydrostatic (rise) and kinetic (wave speed), it is going somewhere. Due to the gradually sloping sea floor, very similar to the gulf where Katrina and Rita hit, a large surge can be expected.

One plus is the track. The dirty side of the storm (surge) will fall in the Sundarbans which is the most sparsely populated region (sparsely being relative in this case).

[RL3AO]

58. One thing though

The storm has been moving due north which would mean the track might need to be shifted ever so slightly east which would put the heavy storm surge over that 1000+ people/sq km area.

[alfredo]

86. The storm surge could be up to 40 ft if it hits as a Cat 5.

Much of Bangladesh is below 10 meters.

[Junkdrawer]

107. I don't think so....

[Audio_Al]

42. Tried to find a regional newspaper that discussed this in English. No luck.

http://ittefaq.com/get.php?d=07/11/14/w/d_vyxq

[Audio_Al]

44. Tropical Cyclone Blog -- what kind of readership does this get?

http://tropicalcyclones.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, November 13, 2007
13 November 2007 - bulletin 725

BAY OF BENGAL
Tropical cyclone Sidr
Warning 07 at 2100 GMT
Approximate position: 13.7N 89.5E
Approximate location: 540 miles S of Calcutta, India
Movement: N at 7 knots
Maximum sustained winds: 115 knots
Maximum gusts: 140 knots
Threatened landmasses: Bangladesh, India

Sidr is at peak intensity. After 48 hours, atmospheric conditions will start to deteriorate, initiating a weakening trend. Its course will remain a fraction west of north. As it approaches the coast near Calcutta, top winds will be decreasing to near 85 knots and further weakening appears likely.

HAZARD SUMMARY
Significant wave height is 32 feet
Tropical storm force winds extend 105 to 125 miles from the centre
Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from the centre

Next update from JTWC at 0900 GMT

[Audio_Al]

46. What is the airspeed in MPH if the calculation is 85 knots an hour?

I'm no sailor.

This suggests weakening.

[RL3AO]

47. 85 knots is about 100 mph

But it just finished an eyewall replacement cycle so everything points to restrengthening in the next 12 hours.

[Audio_Al]

51. RL3AO, this is just an aside. My wife grew up in Miami, Florida, in a tidewater community off of...

Biscayne Bay. It was a direct ride in her father's little boat under a bridge and out to the Atlantic Ocean. She said she's been through about five hurricanes during the years she lived there. The vivid memories are still with her, particularly of a woman in a home with the roof sheared off and a piano standing in about two feet of water.

She just told me she never wants to go back there again. We haven't been there since 1991, when her mother died. We are going to Sanibel Island, Ft. Myers, and Orlando next month for a couple of weeks -- not during hurricane season.

She wants to remember Florida before it gets swept off the planet. She is very upset. Anyway, I don't know where you are or what your situation is, but I appreciate your giving me all this information.

Respectfully,

Audio Al

[RL3AO]

52. Actually I'm in Minnesota

but I will be going to school for meteorology so I try to keep DU updated on stuff like this.

[AuntPatsy]

43. After reading your post the magnitude of how much a disaster to human life this could

be just hit me, my thoughts are with the people, I hope they are ready for such a monster, but then again, with that many people, I don't have high hopes that they can avoid such at all.

[Shallah Kali]

50. NOAA Satellite Images & bloomberg article - expected to hit Calcutta (Kolkata)

NOAA tons of images
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO062007

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-30471420071113

Blooomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aU1lyKHw5P0A&refer=india

Google News search for Sidr Cyclonehttp://news.google.com/news?q=sidr+cyclone&hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=lPp&um=1&ie=ISO-8859-1&resnum=1&ct=title&scoring=d

Tropical Cyclone Sidr moved across the Bay of Bengal packing winds of 213 kilometers (133 miles) per hour on a path for Kolkata in India, according to the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The eye of Sidr, a Category 4 storm, was 924 kilometers south of Kolkata at 5:30 a.m. local time today, the latest advisory on the center's Web site said. The storm was moving north at 11 kilometers per hour.

Sidr's winds were gusting to 259 kilometers per hour and waves in the vicinity of the storm's eye were 10 meters (33 feet) high, according to the advisory. The cyclone is expected to weaken later today and continue losing power as it approaches Kolkata, formerly known as Calcutta, and the nearby west coast of Bangladesh late tomorrow.

[Audio_Al]

54. YOU are a better researcher than I am, Gunga Din.

So, when did Calcutta change its name to Kolkata?


Audio Al (2007)

[RL3AO]

55. From wikipedia

While the city's name was always pronounced either "Kolkata" or "Kolikata" in the local Bengali language, its official English name was only changed from "Calcutta" to "Kolkata" in 2001, reflecting the Bengali pronunciation. Some view this as a move to erase the legacy of British rule.<4>

[Audio_Al]

57. Good luck with the career in meterology!

You might like to see some of the antics in the TV career of Bob Weaver, the Weatherman, whom my wife worked with in the 1950s in Florida.



He passed away in 2006, but this tribute slideshow shows how weather information was handled by one of the world's most pleasant and long-running TV meterologists.

http://www.nbc6.net/slideshow/%20station/9389628/detail.html?qs=1;s=1;dm=ss;p=news;w=400

[Shallah Kali]

59. yahoo india - Severe cyclonic system near east coast; 7 districts alerted

http://in.news.yahoo.com/071113/20/6n6mo.html

As the 'very severe' cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal moved towards the east coast and positioned itself 850 km from Paradip, Orissa government has issued an alert asking coastal districts to gear up for any eventuality.

An alert has been sounded in seven coastal districts. A warning was, however, not issued to the people for now as the system lay at a far off place, G V V Sarma, principal secretary of revenue and disaster management department said.

The altered districts are Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri and Ganjam.

snip

Meanwhile, the CWC director, Sarat Sahu refused to forecast any possibility of the system hitting Orissa or any other place within any specified timeframe.

More articles
http://in.news.search.yahoo.com/news/search?p=cyclone&c=yahoo_news&toggle=1&cop=&ei=UTF-8&datesort=1&fr=Dtk-tab-property-t

[CreekDog]

60. Storm surge will be east of the eye, looking like Bangladesh from the forecast n/t

[RL3AO]

61. Kick and update

Currently 140 mph (Cat 4) and landfall expected near Indian/Bangladesh border.

[BreweryYardRat]

62. Situations like this...

I really wish superheroes were real. Because since there are none, barring a miraculous shift in the storm's direction, there are going to be millions of dead Indians, and millions more homeless/injured/sick.

[Poiuyt]

63. It looks like they are better prepared than in the past

All the 30 districts of Orissa have been put on alert, and the six coastal districts of Balasore, Kendrapada, Bhadrak, Puri, Ganjam and Jagatsinghpur have been placed on high alert.

"We have alerted all the district revenue divisional commissioners that they should take all steps to prepare themselves. They should have their control rooms, which should function round the clock, " said Special Relief Commissioner N K Sunderay.

Sunderay expressed confidence that their preparedness for the impending storm is good, and informed that they had conducted a mock drill with the National Disaster Management Authority recently to tackle such situation. (ANI)

http://www.topnews.in/cyclone-alert-sounded-orissa-26095

[Shallah Kali]

64. AFP | Cyclone poised to slam into Bangladesh, eastern India DailyGreen update too

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ikZyRqWHdKzGhx8bke6yxEu8VmXg

A cyclone packing high winds and heavy rains could slam into Bangladesh as early as Thursday and India one day later, forecasters said.

Bangladesh went on high alert on Wednesday as weather officials said Tropical Cyclone Sidr, hovering over the Bay of Bengal, could hit the southern coast of the disaster-prone country within 24 hours.

snip

The private UNB news agency said some residents were already being evacuated and authorities in one district were using loudspeakers to warn residents to move to safer areas.


In 1970, some half a million people died when a cyclone hit the impoverished country, while an estimated 138,000 people died as a result of a cyclonic tidal wave in 1991.


Despite Official Forecasts, Cyclone Sidr Keeps Gaining Strength
A Key Question: How Strong The Storm Surge?
http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/hurricanes-storms/cyclone-sidr-55111407

I just checked the intensity of this potentially devastating storm in the Bay of Bengal, and my jaw dropped.

For days the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been saying that Sidr is going to weaken. They keep having to take it back: Now the storm is at 130 knots, what would be a Supertyphoon in the West Pacific, and close to Category 5 strength.

snip

As Masters is more expert than your Storm Pundit, let's quote him on the storm surge possibility:

A Category 1 or 2 cyclone hitting the low-lying, densely populated coasts of Bangladesh could still be devastating. The triangular shape of the Bay of Bengal acts to funnel storm surge waters into Bangladesh, and the very shallow bottom of the bay allows the surge to pile up to very high heights. A list of the 13 deadliest cyclones in world history shows that nine of these have occurred in the Bay of Bengal. The big killer in all of these cyclones was the storm surge. The only known cyclone of Category 5 strength to hit Bangladesh, the April 1991 cyclone, brought a 30 foot storm surge to the coast near Chittagong. Surge height up to 41 feet are possible along some regions of the coast.

[AuntPatsy]

65. kicking for updates

[flvegan]

66. It doesn't look like mass evacuation is happening??

DHAKA (AFP) — A cyclone packing high winds and heavy rains could slam into Bangladesh as early as Thursday and India one day later, forecasters said.

Bangladesh went on high alert on Wednesday as weather officials said Tropical Cyclone Sidr, hovering over the Bay of Bengal, could hit the southern coast of the disaster-prone country within 24 hours.

Volunteers working for the cyclone preparedness programme were on standby to evacuate residents to shelters, the official BSS news agency reported.

The private UNB news agency said some residents were already being evacuated and authorities in one district were using loudspeakers to warn residents to move to safer areas.

"It if hits the coastal area with its present intensity, it will be catastrophic," said weather department official Sanaul Haque.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ikZyRqWHdKzGhx8bke6yxEu8VmXg

[malaise]

67. K & R

This will be a disaster in Bangladesh.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

68. Latest image that I could find

[Greyskye]

69. Not to sidetrack this thread...

...but did anyone else get this when they opened this thread up?

[RL3AO]

71. Hmm. It must be the image from the JTWC (U.S. Navy)

I'll remove it if I can, but there is nothing dangerous about it.

[Audio_Al]

76. Yes, I got that too. Untrusted certificate -- but I chose to open a similar link last night.

[alfredo]

70. I wonder if it will hit at high or low tide? It's going to drown

a lot of people either way.

[RL3AO]

72. UPDATE: Storm has continued to strengthen, near or is at category 5 strength

[DavidDvorkin]

73. A good site for tracking this:

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200706B.html

[RL3AO]

74. Oh shit. Is now forecasted to make landfall as a Category 4...up from Cat 2 forecasted yesterday.

nt

[Audio_Al]

75. Just got a chance to check this out for the first time today.

It did strengthen as you and others had suggested. Thanks for your persistence, RL3AO.

What day and time (in any American day and time zone expression, such as ET, CT, or PT) is this supposed to impact? I envision those awful internet pictures of the tsunami in Thailand overwhelming the people, beaches and structures there. They came the day after Christmas just at one of the resorts we had visited in Phuket -- the Kata Tani.

Al

[RL3AO]

77. Around 2 to 4 pm Eastern U.S. time tomorrow will be landfall.

AKA middle of the night there.

[Audio_Al]

78. Hurricanes in the middle of the night. I remember the storm of 1938 hit our area in New England.

I was four years old. After the storm, my father took me out into the Massachusetts streets that were passable in his old car. I remember huge uprooted trees. It's an impression I will never forget.

The storm was not named -- and I don't remember it having a number or other designation. There are still some photos of the damage it did -- I looked them up on the Internet a few years ago.

[midlife_mo_Jo]

79. This is the first I read/hear about this

Are any of the networks covering this?

[RL3AO]

80. Nothing by the US media.

By the time they do cover it there could be a death toll approaching that of the 2004 Tsunami.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

81. The Rethug networks care little for the "brown" people

on the other side of the world... unless they can paint them as terrorists.

I am so ashamed of our horrible ethnocentrism and fear-based bigotry.

[RL3AO]

82. Well the other networks aren't saying shit about it either so don't go putting this all on Faux.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

83. Did I mention "Faux"?

I said Rethug networks. With an "s". The media in this country sucks ass.

[bdamomma]

116. are you kidding me? our media?

[xchrom]

85. kick

[Shallah Kali]

87. USAToday Bangladesh has shelters for 1/2 mil. while est. 10 mill at risk -UN prepares Aid

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/2007-11-14-cyclone-sidr_N.htm
"It is likely to intensify and move in a northerly direction and may make a landfall at the Sundarban mangroves," a meteorologist said.

He said Sidr was expected to hit Vishakapatnam on the eastern Indian coast as well as Sittewe in Myanmar.

"This is a very serious cyclone," said B.P. Yadav, director of the India Meteorological Department, adding that he expected the storm to cross the coast of Bangladesh and the neighbouring Indian state of West Bengal by Friday morning, near Sagar Island.

snip

Nearly 10 million Bangladeshis live in vulnerable points along the coast, but there are storm shelters for only half a million people, a disaster management official said.


Danger signal raised to 10 as hurricane nears
May hit southern coast by this noon; evacuation starts
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=11713

The Met office has advised the district authorities to evacuate people living in the chars, and by the coastal zone. All fishing boats and trawlers on the northeast bay have been advised to come closer to the coast and take shelter immediately. Boatmen have been advised to proceed with caution till further notice.

snip

The weather officials have cautioned that the low-lying areas of those districts might be inundated by wind-driven surge of 3 to 5 feet height above normal astronomical tide.

snip

The WFP has emergency plans to distribute 98 metric tons of biscuits that can feed 400,000 people for at least three days.

"Considering the potential consequences, WFP and its partners have already started monitoring the situation in close partnership with the government," said Douglas Broderick, WFP Representative in Bangladesh.

Sidr headed for Bangla border
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Sidr-headed-for-Bangla-border/239410/

Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be 20.9 N and 89.2 E. At the time of landfall, it is expected to be a category 3 storm.

It would mean a storm surge generally of 2.7-3.7 metres above normal, some structural damage to small residences, damage to shrubbery and trees. Terrain continuously lower than 1.5 metres above mean sea level may be flooded inland 13 km or more.

[Strelnikov_]

88. This is starting to look really really bad

It is now coming in as a 4, and per Jeff Masters some of the models having it moving east, over high heat content, which well could result in a Cat 4/5 surge being pushed up the Meghna Estuary, an area of high population density on the eastern bank.

Tropical Cyclone Sidr is headed northwards towards a landfall in Bangladesh or India late this week, and may intensify into a Category 2 or higher storm. The Bay of Bengal has seen the world's deadliest tropical cyclones, and November is one of the region's most dangerous months. On November 12-13, 1970, a Category 4 cyclone struck Bangladesh, causing the greatest tropical cyclone disaster in world history. An estimated 350,000-550,000 people died when a devastating 34-foot storm surge funneled northwards through the Bay of Bengal into Bangladesh. The path of Tropical Cyclone Sidr beyond Wednesday is highly uncertain, with the NOGAPS and ECMWF models taking the storm northwards over a region of high oceanic heat content and into Bangladesh. The GFS model turns Sidr westwards, over a region of low oceanic heat content, into the east coast of India. Wind shear is about 10 knots over the storm, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next three days. Recent satellite observations suggest that Sidr is already of hurricane strength, and may be intensifying rapidly.

[RL3AO]

89. Kick for first visible of the morning.

[Junkdrawer]

90. The weather guys on several blogs are saying it's now a Cat 5...

I also read where the outflow has improved so much that the expected weakening may not happen...

:cry:

And yet, not a peep on CNN or MS NBC or CBS or ABC....

[and-justice-for-all]

91. Mother Nature is Pissed!!! nt

[RL3AO]

92. Visual comparison: Katrina vs Sidr

Katrina



Sidr

[treestar]

94. This storm is colder is what I'm getting from that

:kick:

[JCMach1]

100. and has some windshear to the N

[ellisonz]

93. Kick.

[RL3AO]

95. What could be the disaster of the decade is 18 hours away

and barely a peep from the western media.

[alfredo]

96. Storm surge graphic

If it hits shore at Cat 5. this could be a disaster of monumental proportions.

[Shallah Kali]

97. It has begun -DPA Powerful cyclone touches off floods on Bangladeshi islands

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/142427.html

A powerful cyclone buffeted the southern Bangladesh coast Thursday after its peripheral winds touched off high waves and floods on the country's islands, officials said. Nearly a million people living in coastal villages were moved to safe locations as forecasters expected the storm to batter the coast with winds of more than 200 kilometers per hour.

Storm lashes Bangladesh island, thousands evacuated
http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2007-11-15T100220Z_01_SP315166_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-BANGLADESH-STORM-COL.XML&archived=False

Strong winds lashed Bangladesh's Saint Martin's island on Thursday, ripping off tin roofs from houses and uprooting trees, as tens of thousands of mainlanders were evacuated to shelters ahead of a severe cyclone.

snip

Earlier, officials said the storm, classified category 4 by the weather tracker Tropical Storm Risk, would likely make landfall in Bangladesh, any time from around 2 p.m. (3 a.m. EST) with winds of more than 210 kph (130 mph).

snip

Nearly 10 million Bangladeshis live on the coastlines which usually takes the brunt of the cyclones but the areas have shelters for around only half a million.

snip

"The storm will hit the West Bengal coast around midnight with wind speed up to 200 km per hour," B.P. Yadav, a senior weather official, said in New Delhi.

[Bluebear]

98. 'The main seaport in Chittagong declared a danger signal number 10, its highest emergency.'

:scared:

[Shallah Kali]

99. Anyone who's belief system supports prayer, good vibes, or anything like that please do so now

:cry:

:grouphug:

[JCMach1]

101. yeah, this is worst-case scenario...

:(

[RL3AO]

102. Landfall within 5 hours...probably sooner.

[SidDithers]

103. Kick...to keep this near the top...nt

Sid

[Strelnikov_]

104. Coming in as a 5, and less than 2 days ago the predictive models

estimated it would be a 1 before landfall.

Another season of the models systematically underestimating strength.


Its almost like our climate is rapidly changing. Or something.

[Marrah_G]

105. What time is it supposed to hit there?

[Strelnikov_]

106. Landfall in 2 hours

[paparush]

108. Didn't Gore Talk about this Very Scenario in An Inconvenient Truth

I mean, I'm sure this area sees its fair share of cyclones, much like the southeast of the US sees its share of hurricanes.

[Junkdrawer]

119. I think you may be onto something,

This may explain why the media is downplaying this...

[bdamomma]

109. oh god, that doesn't look good at all, terrible.

just more death and destruction. :cry:

[northernsoul]

110. Kick

Once again, DU is way ahead of the media.

[Junkdrawer]

111. Amazing pic...

[librechik]

113. I fear Bangladesh won't survive the climate change

I dread they won't be alone.

[Junkdrawer]

114. And where will the refugees go?

:shrug:

[librechik]

117. only one way they can-away from the ocean.

Population pressures in India and other places will go through the roof.

[Junkdrawer]

118. Pakistan? And aren't they predominately Muslim?

More pressure to move Pakistan toward radical Islam?

[librechik]

120. no doubt

grim future we look forward to.

[Steven_S]

115. It's just about there.....

India, Bangladesh Order Evacuations as Cyclone Nears (Update3)

By Jay Shankar and Aaron Sheldrick

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Indian and Bangladeshi authorities ordered thousands of people to evacuate as Tropical Cyclone Sidr headed across the Bay of Bengal toward the coast with winds of 250 kilometers (156 miles) per hour.

Sidr, a Category 5 storm, was 201 kilometers east-southeast of Kolkata at 11:30 a.m. local time today, according to the latest advisory by the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The storm was moving north at 28 kilometers an hour.

The cyclone is expected to maintain strength as it approaches the coastal border region between India and Bangladesh. Sidr's eye is forecast to make landfall southeast of Kolkata, a city of 14.3 million people formerly known as Calcutta, at about 11 p.m. today, the center said.

[Sabriel]

121. "Thousands" of people?

Who are they kidding?

[Junkdrawer]

122. BREAKING: "Cyclone Sidr slams into Bangladesh"

Tropical Cyclone Sidr made landfall at 1430 GMT in western Bangladesh as a mighty Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Sidr is the second strongest cyclone to make landfall in Bangladesh since reliable record keeping began in 1877. The only stronger storm was the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, which struck eastern Bangladesh as a Category 5 cyclone. The 30 foot storm surge of that storm killed at least 140,000 people. Sidr is the Arabic word for the jujube tree.



Sidr's storm surge
The big killer in Bangladesh cyclones is the storm surge. The triangular shape of Bengal Bay funnels high surges into the apex of the triangle where Bangladesh sits, and the shallow bottom of the bay allows extraordinarily high storm surges to pile up. The maximum theoretical storm surge from a worst-case Category 5 cyclone is thought to be 41 feet in western Bangladesh (Islam, 2006). Sidr's maximum storm surge to the right of where the eye makes landfall is likely to be in the 20-25 foot range. Of critical importance is the timing of landfall with respect to high tide, since there is a 1.5 meter (5 foot) difference between low and high tide in western Bangladesh. According to mobilegeographics.com, high tide is at approximately 1am local time tonight, and Sidr made landfall about halfway between low and high tide. Thus, Bangladesh did have a little luck, as the storm tide could have been about 2-3 feet higher had Sidr hit at high tide.

The coast in western Bangladesh has the Sundarbans Forest, the world's largest forest of mangrove trees. This region is the least populated coastal area in the country, and has been part of a major reforestation effort in recent years. The portion of coast likely to receive the highest storm surge levels of 20-25 feet is virtually unpopulated. However, storm surge levels of 10-20 feet are still likely to affect areas with a population of at least a million, to the east of the Sundarbans forest, and inland from the forest. The last major cyclone to hit western Bangladesh occurred in November 1988. This Category 3 cyclone with 125 mph winds had a 5-10 foot storm surge, and killed 2,000 people.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=863&tstamp=200711

[AuntPatsy]

123. Its amazing that I have yet to hear about this catastrophic event in the US

media, each year that has passed with this administration in control has lessened our caring about others in need world wide.

We have become so consumed with our own lack of government caring regarding those less fortunate which many American citizens are fast becoming that we no longer seem to have the funds (due to the wasted billions of american tax dollars being consumed for illegal invasions) and or caring for others less fortunate.

This is a sad day for our country if one were to realize how lost we have become as once being considered the greatest nation on earth, such is no longer part of our makeup, we have become a nation of greedy corporate self serving individuals who no longer look outside our own back yard unless it will benefit us financially.

I am really ashamed, we all should be.

[malaise]

128. It's the lead story on BBC International

since morning.

[bikebloke]

124. Flooding from the air

Back in the mid-80's, I flew into Dhaka. At the time they had some unusual post-monsoon flooding. Everything was underwater, with the odd road beds, hillocks and trees turned into islands. Three to five hundred infants died a day in times like that - so I was told by someone from the German Embassy there.

My original plans were to go overland up to Nepal. Obviously impossible. I had to buy an air ticket to Khatmandu.

[dave29]

125. I pray for these people

.

[Strelnikov_]

126. Couple pictures of the Cyclone Shelters

Little bit leery of their design wrt lateral forces. A diagonal member at each corner panel would have greatly increased the resistance to lateral loads.

[midlife_mo_Jo]

127. KIcked for later checking

[spinbaby]

129. Cyclone Sidr crosses Orissa without damage, spares WB

It looks like the worst didn't happen:

Last updated : Friday, 16 November , 2007, 00:04
Kolkata/Bhubaneswar: A powerful cyclone packed with wind speed up to 280 km per hour late Thursday crossed half of Orissa's vulnerable areas without causing any damage and veered off the coast of West Bengal, bringing a sigh of relief to the two States where thousands were evacuated.

Cyclone Sidr, bringing in its wake gale and torrential rains, crossed half of Orissa's coastline covering four of the six districts that were put on high alert without causing any damage even as the State government evacuated over 30,000 people to safety, officials said.

"The system has already gone beyond districts of Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur and Puri by 5 pm IST today," said Orissa's Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) N K Sundaray.

The cyclone passed without causing any damage in the state's coastline, he said.

http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=14561815&vsv=SHGTslot1

[Junkdrawer]

130. Well, India was spared...but it's Bangladesh we're worried about...

They're the ones under the gun...

[Shallah Kali]

131. 41 known dead, scores of fishingboats missing, people shelter in mud forts

Bangladesh cyclone leaves 41 dead
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/5306525.html

A cyclone packing 150 mph winds slammed Bangladesh's southeast coast late Thursday, killing at least 41 people and forcing hundreds of thousands from their homes, officials said.

snip

Local government officials across the region said that at least 41 people had been killed, mainly from collapsing homes and falling debris, and 650,000 people had been evacuated.

snip

Selva Sinnadurai, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Bangladesh, said many people would have to take refuge in schools, community centers and other public buildings because there aren't enough cyclone shelters — concrete buildings on raised pilings.

snip

Some took refuge in "mud forts" built along the coast to resist tidal surges.


Cyclone batters Bangladesh, scores missing
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=18fd655c-3592-4feb-b06c-073cf8091537&k=38099


Hundreds of fishing boats caught in Cyclone Sidr failed to return to shore, and trees and power poles were uprooted disrupting communication and electricity supplies, officials said.

snip

Sixteen Bangladeshi fishermen went missing after their fishing boat sank in Cox's Bazar, a resort town some 400 km (250 miles) southeast of Dhaka, a local fishing association said late on Thursday.

Rescued fishermen from Myanmar told Bangladeshi officials that 12 of their compatriots had drowned at sea. They were among a group of fishermen aboard four fishing boats which were smashed into shore by the cyclone, rescuers in Teknaf, a town 500 km (310 miles) southeast of the capital Dhaka, said.

Cyclones can cause immense devastation in disaster-prone Bangladesh, a low-lying country of more than 140 million people. The latest cyclone triggered 5-metre (16 feet) high water surges in many of the affected districts.