I realize what the polls say, I also realize what my republican and indepdent associates say

[still_one]

They are extremely upset with what the bush administration has done, and their party. They have indicated that they like Obama, but would not vote for Hillary.

I am in California, which is mostly a moderate to progressive state, but with an independent flavor.

In my view Hillary may get the Democratic nomination, but unless she can reverse that negative perception, it will be very difficult for her to win the general election.

The statement I make concerning this election, is that it will decide the Supreme Court, Roe V. Wade, stem cell research, and individuals over corporations

[Enrique]

1. fascinating new twist on Hillary's candidacy

heavy :sarcasm:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Perhaps He Doesn't Think Novelty Or Originality Is A Virtue

eom

[still_one]

7. In all honesty do you think that the Clinton haters are going to be swayed?

and I am not referring to those Democrats who dislike her, I am referring to what happened throughout the whole Bill Clinton presidency. The Arkansaw project, etc.

They will bring up Hillary's windfall commodity profits, Bill Clinton's pardon of Rich, and of course the sexual indisgressions of what happened in the Oval Office. That is what will dominate the coverage if she gets the nomination, unless her campaign can force the media to focus on the real issues. If the last 15 years are any indication of the future, I wouldn't count on it.

That is my real point. How will she move a media that has become a entertainment weekly rag, toward a direction of discussing the real issues? Thanks to the communications act of the 90's I don't think she can.

[Enrique]

9. most of the Clinton haters had no real reason to hate her

they hated the Clintons because they were told to hate them.

a lot of the voters who hated Clinton now hate and distrust the republicans, and so whatever the republicans told them, and tell them now, about Clinton won't matter so much.

[lostnotforgotten]

12. Hillary Voted For The War!

'nuff said from a progressive perspective!

[Enrique]

19. Tammy Baldwin, an antiwar progressive, supports Hillary

'nuff said.

[lostnotforgotten]

40. Your Moral Compromise Not Mine!

eom

[Cha]

58. Why? Cause hillary's

a woman? Never know why some people want to support somebody.

[Enrique]

68. no, it is mostly about health care

an issue of interest to Baldwin.

"I am proud to endorse Senator Hillary Clinton's candidacy for President of the United States," Baldwin said. "Senator Clinton is supremely prepared and the candidate best able to ensure health care for all, reaffirm our commitment to the Constitution and rule of law, and re-establish our position of leadership in the world. She will be firm in protecting our national security and fair in addressing the aspirations and needs of all Americans. Hillary Clinton has been my friend and ally in the battle for health care for many years and I look forward to working with her to achieve our common goals when she becomes our next President," Baldwin said.

[still_one]

21. Yes she did, but it must also be pointed out that the Supreme Court IS AT STAKE

If you believe in preserving a woman's right to choose, stem cell research, and civil rights, the odds are far better with a Democrat than a republican. Yes, that includes someone who voted for the IWR, and believes our presence in Iraq will be needed for some time.

The way I look at it is this. It appears Democrat or republican will continue the Iraq disaster, so I am looking at other issues, and the main one is the Supreme Court.

I am also view the fact that 26 republican seats are up for re-election in the Senate, while only 12 Democratic seats are

There is a good possibility that we will have a Democratic Congress that will be able to over-ride a veto, so whoever the President is, if that person wants to stay the course in Iraq, the Congress should be able to get us out. We should know in 2008 exactly where the Democrats stand on Iraq. There will be no ambiguity, because Congress will be able to determine our involvement or not

[lostnotforgotten]

47. Worked 1,000 Hours In 2004 Only To Watch The Voting Machines

Steal the vote. The Democratic party did nothing.

That includes Hillary and her DLC backers.

As Bush has said "fool me once - don't get fooled again"

His most important utterance in my opinion.

I will never be fooled again by "fake" Democrats that we are forced to swallow because the Oligarchy says so.

[still_one]

51. and they still have done nothing about the voting machines, but

there is no question that the republicans want to reverse roe v wade, civil rights. That is what the Federalist Society is all about. Scalia, Alito, Roberts, and Thomas belong to that philosophy.

In 1992, Roe v Wade should have been overturned, at least as far as the republicans thought, because the judges they appointed were suppossed to do it. Somehow, O'conner, Souter changed their view. For O'Conner she viewed it as a discrimination issue against women, which she encountered throughout her career, mostly at the hands of republicans, which makes her decision on bush v gore even more troubling

Stevens is holding out for a Democrat as the President before stepping down. Most of the other judges are in their 70's. The sakes are very high

[lostnotforgotten]

57. This Is But One Perspective - Without A Reliable Vote Nothing Else Matters

eom

[still_one]

67. Except in a few place, like Califronia, where the Secratary of State is actually doing something

I unfortunately wouldn't count on much change

However, the Democrats did win in 2006 in spite of it

[still_one]

17. I agree, but that is something like religion. When you are young to believe in religion

and later someone of a different belief trys to sway you. The makeup of human nature, is not as ideal as it should be. They are not as objective, or critical thinking as I they should, or we would not have had bush for two terms

The question is, are their enough registered Democrats to overcome that? As I see it, the best chance we have is if the republicans stay home, and the Democrats come out in a major way to vote. That is the only way

[Enrique]

23. at one time they worshipped Bush

many many people have left that church.

[still_one]

26. From immedately after 9/11 to now, it sure appears that way /nt

[Hamlette]

60. exactly right, and of Obama wins the primary, they will be told to hate him and they will

It's all about money. I didn't go into debt to give Kerry every dime I could because I liked Kerry, I did it because I hated Bush. I had legitimate reasons but that is how fund raising and getting out the base works. The GOP will turn anyone we run into a monster.

A rabid Coulter loving woman I worked with HATED Carter. Not because he was not the most effective president or on the merits, because the right wing hate machine convinced her that Carter staged the hostage crisis because he wanted to give America to the Iranians (or some such nonsense). She was incoherent and hated him with every fiber of her being. She didn't get it on her own, she got it off the garbage she heard from the noise machine. She felt the same way about the Clintons and Kerry and don't get her started on Ted Kennedy! She wasn't an idiot (depending on how you define idiot) but a very competent lawyer and judge.

It is irrational, it is emotional and they will do it to anyone we put up.

I'm not a Hillary fan, I like Edwards and Obama (and Richardson and Dennis...all of them but Gravel actually) but one thing that does make sense to me is that Bill fought off the right wing hate machine which went after him with all it had. Gore and Kerry could/did not. I think Hillary will fight them better. Maybe for the same reasons I don't like her very much, she will fight as dirty as they do and after 2 candidates who were not successful at fighting them off, that might be what we need.

[WinkyDink]

63. When has "reason" EVER been the guiding, let alone deciding, factor in Presidential elections?

REAGAN?!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Are We To Supposed To Reject Public Surveys In Favor Of Studies Of Self Selected Persons?

Self identified Republicans are at their lowest level in a generation. All Senator Clinton needs to do is hold the Democratic vote... In fact , if the gap in party i d holds up she can even afford to lose the Indy vote, as long as it is not by a wide margin...

I don't think Nixon would have won any "beauty contests" yet he won a squeaker in 68 and the biggest popular and Electoral College vote landslide in 72...

[still_one]

14. I think she will hold the Democratic vote, if for nothing else than the Supreme Court

Are you saying that even without the independent vote it should be O.K.?

The South is the biggest problem, but that is for all of the candidates thanks to Nixon and the succeeding republican administrations using their "southern strategy", to appeal to the lowest base in the south, i.e. racism

Do you have any stats that indicate that the number of registered Democrats outnumber the number of independents?

I also believe if this is played right the young, and the old should vote for the Democrats, I am just not sure so sure about the middle-aged

One of our biggest problems in the past two elections was capturing the female vote. I would hope they have learned their lessons from the past seven years

It will be interesting, I hope not too interesting

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Here's A Graphic

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/10/14/weekinreview/15kirk_graphic.ready.html

I didn't say she can afford to got blown out in the Indy vote...I am saying with the party ID advangage she can afford to lose it by a bit...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. 51% -41% According To Gallup

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28429&pg=1

[still_one]

27. That is pretty eye-opening. You have to wonder what happened in 2004 thought

still from your link:

"At the moment, 36% of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while 56% have an unfavorable opinion. Conversely, 51% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, and 41% an unfavorable opinion."


is very positive

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. What Happened Is People Soured On The War

Most Americans "loved" the war when we were "winning"...Now that we aren't "winning" and it looks like a quagmire they don't "love" it anymore...

I suspect if Bush didn't invade Iraq the political landscape would be dramatically different...

[still_one]

43. What I meant is that the Democrats should have won in 2004?

There is no question that the power of the media can sway people

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. In 04 The "Evil Doers Will Eat Your Baby" Meme Still Had Some Traction...

By 2006 it no longer did or folks didn't think Bush* was particularly effective at keeping them at bay...

[still_one]

53. Yes, 2006, something changed. In fact it defied history

for a incumbant party to lose seats, and the majority in the midterm election was almost never heard of

[still_one]

24. That is pretty impressive. Several comments:

If Democrats get out the vote, and the republicans don't we should win in a big way

However, will we be able to overcome the swift-boating, because I am pretty confident it will happen.

How will we be able to overcome a media who will 24/7 be demonizing our candidate.

I can see it now, a faux or cnn special on "candiate x" and how their position has waffled, or loose morals, etc. It doesn't matter whether it is true, how do we combat it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. I'd Have To Look At The Literature Some More

I know in the "old days" when Democrats enjoyed a huge party ID advantage the only way a Republican presidential candidate won was by co-opting a large percentage of Democratic voters...

I don't see many Democrats voting for a Republican this time...

George Bush* has been God's gift to the Democratic party and his curse to everybody else...

[still_one]

46. Democrats will support Democrats this year, as I said the Supreme Court is at stake

I just hope we are able to get the independents

[LWolf]

38. Yes.

Until every candidate has equal (public) funding, equal airtime, and the poll questions are neutral and not worded to exclude some, or force others:

Until that time, what people on the street are actually saying has more validity than polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Then Why Are The Final Polls Invariably Consonant With The Final Results?

http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm#Pollster

[LWolf]

54. I think it's a self-fulfilling cycle.

Corporate influence extends to polling companies and media (they own them). They look at a list of potential candidates, and throw their donation money behind a few who they deem more malleable. The candidates with the most money get the most press, and name recognition takes over. Poll questions are formulated to exclude some, and to push some, and, again, name recognition takes over. Media attention is directed towards those pre-chosen. The cycle repeats again and again, each time reinforcing the name recognition for some, and excluding others, each time narrowing the poll results to the chosen few as "leaders." And, eventually, narrowing the election results, since people are more likely to vote for those they've heard and read more about.

It's a CORRUPT self-fulfilling cycle.

[Evergreen Emerald]

3. anyone will have those negatives.

Remember she has been attacked non-stop for 13 years by the right wing machine (and now the democrats are helping them). And she has survived. "They" said the same thing about her senate race.

Remember Cleland? Kerry? Whoever is the nomination will be attacked incessantly. I frankly, don't want the republicans picking my nominee.

[Yael]

5. I am seeing the same thing in my conservative area

Why I feel strongly about working against her candidacy during the primaries. I think people underestimate the right's hatred and distrust of her.

Mom is a hard core (R). Told me this summer that if Rudy gets the nod, she is staying home UNLESS he is running against Clinton. Apparently this is a rather popular view in her circles...

Vote for her if you like, just don't underestimate them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Newton's Third Law Of Physics

"For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."

For every wingnut that hates Hillary a person who hates wingnuts will come out in support of her...

[havocmom]

8. Yeah, worked so well in 2000 and 2004, that opposite reaction

:eyes:

Reaching with that one. Really reaching.

[cali]

10. er, Al Gore won in 2000

and if Nader hadn't run, bush wouldn't have been able to steal it. How does that figure in your computations? Or doesn't it? And there's evidence that Ohio was stolen in 2004.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Folks Here Should Oppose Hillary On Her Policies If That Is Their Bent

But the meme she can't win is not supported by the facts...

[havocmom]

31. I oppose her for both those reasons

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. As Long As You Are Aware The Former Is Real And The Latter Is Chimera

:dilemma:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. There Wasn't A Ten To Fifteen Point Gap In Party ID... Find A More Apt Analogy

:crazy:

[Yael]

15. How many candidates do you see people saying, "I will hold my nose

and vote for <insert name>" about? Hillary pretty much has a lock on that one.

Do the math. It isn't about voting for her in the GE. It is about who is going to pound the pavement for her leading up to it.

You take a bunch of angry (R)s against a bunch of apathetic (D)s and the (R)s stay right where they are.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Huh

It will be "impeachment" all over again...Clinton was never so popular...His popularity was in the 70's during impeachment...

And I know lots of enthusiastic Clinton supporters...Among regular folks there is a reservoir of good will for the Clintons because they believe, compared to now ,it was an idyllic time, one of relative peace and prosperity...

Hillary motivates your mom to vote for a Republican...Fine...God bless her...My aunt who died at 98 in 2005 lived in New York her entire life... She hated Rudy with a passion...If she knew Rudy was running for president she would rise out of her grave to vote against him...

[havocmom]

33. Yup

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Chimera Doesn't Become Reality By Repetition

:P

[havocmom]

42. So, why all the repitition and chants by you folks trying to force the 'inevitable' on us

:P :P

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. I Said Nothing About Inevitability

I was just referring to the empirical research that is available...

I just can't shake my belief in facts and evidence...That's why I'm not a Fundamentalist...

:P

[still_one]

28. That is what my concern is, because I don't think the polls necessarily reflect it /nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Reflect What

They call you up and ask who you will vote for...

In some polls Hillary beats Rude(e) by a small margin...In other polls she waxes him...But in no polls does Guliani beat her...

This isn't a policy discussion but a discussion of her merits as a campaigner...As a campaigner she's smart, tough, tenacious, and backed by the best political machine the Democrats have to offer...

[still_one]

39. What I am referring to is the swiftboating, bringing up the same nonesense

that they did against Bill Clinton for 8 years. How do you fight that when the MSM helps perpetrate it.

There is merit to the statement that if you tell a lie long enough people believe it. How many people in the country realize that the illegal activities Clinton was charged with concerning White Water were thrown out because there was nothing to it?

I would suspect very little

In other words, things are twisted so badly by the so-called journalists today that very little accurate information gets out

She will need to be smart, tough, and tenacious, to just get through the process. When she spoke of a right wing conspiracy, the media belittled her, but she was right. How many people even realize the organizations that were created for that specific purpose?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. See Post 34

The more Pugs attacked Bill Clinton the stronger he got...He could win the presidency tomorrow if it wasn't for the 22nd Amendment...

[durrrty libby]

16. What a bag of flaming shit. I'm not buying it. You have been

a Clinton Hater on this board and now you are passing the stink bag to your"wink wink associates"


Save Bandwidth.....Save America....Stop Posting BullShit

[still_one]

30. It is so nice to engage in an intellectual discussion with someone. You do well for your cause, NOT

with language and an attitude like that

Yes, that is how you attract people to your position, start calling them names

I think your post speaks for itself. There are responses on this post that indicate how Hillary would respond to the attacks. However, your response is the most inane and self-destructive one I have read.

I guess it reflects your maturity

Incidently, though I don't owe you any explanation, but I tell them it is about the Supreme Court, and to vote Democratic

You are a real piece of work. I only hope that you are not out representing your candidate, because that candidate will lose for sure with people like you

[TahitiNut]

44. Ad hominem nonsense.

Given the choice between making an affirmative case for Hillary and contrary to an assertion, you opt to smear the poster. Such mindless antipathy for the person having an opinion, rather that the opinion itself, is unreasoning and destructive of civil discourse.

[Le Taz Hot]

18. I am also in Calfiornia and I know of

very few rank-and-file here that can stomach her. I know NO one who actually likes her. However, between The Machine, the MSM and manipulation of the Iowa Caucus, she is, of course, already ordained the nominee. I don't know whether to say 'luckily' or unluckily' here as it depends on your perspective but the fact this that the Republicans have a worse field this year than even the Democrats (and that's saying a lot) works to her advantage. She'll get the nomination and she'll get the presidency. And 8 years from now we'll still be in Iraq, we'll have invaded Iran and we'll all be forced to pay for Hillary's version of universal health care. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

On edit: Finished a sentence.

[still_one]

34. My whole point is how will she overcome that swift-boat image

You can't just say screw those that fall for it, you have to somehow be able to defend yourself

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. The Way Her Husband Did

When he left office his popularity was in the seventies and he's now recognized as one of the most popular presidents of all time:


Who would have thought it? Some two years after he left office hounded by right-wing detractors and stained by his affair with Monica Lewinsky, Bill Clinton now ranks as this nation's third best chief executive, according to a recent CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.
Only Abraham Lincoln (chosen by 15%) and John F. Kennedy (13%) finished ahead of Clinton (11%) in the April poll, which asked Americans who was "the greatest" president. George W. Bush managed to tie Clinton for third place.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/2003-05-26-wickham_x.htm



Former president Bill Clinton has emerged as a clear asset in his wife's campaign for the White House, with Americans offering high ratings to his eight years in office and a solid majority saying they would be comfortable with him as first spouse, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.




At this point, however, the former president is seen in favorable terms. Two-thirds of Americans said they approve of the job he did while he was in office -- virtually the reverse of President Bush's current approval rating, which stands at 33 percent. Clinton remains overwhelmingly popular among Democrats, and 63 percent of independents and even a third of Republicans also gave him positive marks.

Many Republicans have said that they are eager to run a general-election campaign against Hillary Clinton, describing her as a highly polarizing candidate who would unite and energize the opposition. But, as of now, Clinton appears to be no more polarizing than other leading Democratic contenders. Nor is there a potential Republican nominee who appears significantly less polarizing.

Forty-one percent of those surveyed said they definitely would not vote for Clinton in the general election if she were the Democratic nominee, one of the lowest "reject rates" among the leading candidates in either of the two major parties. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) registers the lowest definite opposition, at 39 percent.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/03/AR2007100302036.html?hpid=topnews

[TahitiNut]

50. As a Californian at heart, I have a tough time imagining her winning California in a General ...

... particularly if Giuliani or Romney (or even Thompson) is the GOP candidate. There's some ineffable quality about Hillary that I believe is contrary to the California "vibe" - even with the Central Valley or Orange County or Sandi Ego voters.

I look at New York, Illinois, Florida, Texas, and California and try to imagine how Hillary would do against the most likely GOP candidates and believe she has her biggest problems winning in Texas, California, and even Florida. She'll pull the Illinois vote, even with the downstaters, but even New York could be a toss-up, particularly upstate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. I Can Find The Links If You Desire

Hillary is cleaning Rudy's clock in New York... That's why he was afraid to run againt her in 00...

She's leading him by a substantial margin in Cali and a small margin in FL...

TX hasn't gone blue since 1976...

[porphyrian]

55. There's a reason the republicans and the press have framed the Senator as our nominee for years now.

Either they are confident that they can beat her or she isn't as repulsive to them as they appear to think. Either way is reason enough not to elect her.

[Yael]

59. Your logic will fall on deaf ears

You see, the (R) supports her because they believe she is our best candidate and they are conceding in advance that she is unstoppable!

:sarcasm:

[porphyrian]

61. Oh yeah. - n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

62. So The People Randomly Chosen In Polls Are All Lying To Game The System?

Yet the final polls have been matching the final results since 1976...

:P

[Yael]

64. Worked for Dean!

Oh wait...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. The Closer The Polls Came To IA And NH The Worse He Did

eom

[still_one]

70. I don't know about that, but one thing I do know if she became president

it would piss them off big time

[porphyrian]

75. You aren't denying that she's been framed as our nominee, are you?

It's not like the supporting evidence is obscure or anything.

[Neshanic]

65. Arizona, hardly a bastion of progressive thought. I ask friends these questions.

When we talk about politics, the last of the red hot Bush lovers will vote for a Democrat. But not for Clinton.

Rudy is the front runner in every conversation when I ask if it would be between Clinton and Rudy. They say Rudy in a New York minute. Then I ask if Clinton was not running, but another Democrat, they say they would seriously consider voting for that person, or vote for an another Democrat outright without hesitation. NONE of the rabid republicans I know, and especially one that still has a huge portrait of Bush in his office will not with certainty vote for a republican. Add Clinton and they run back to the arms of the nuts.

She is not electable. She will not win.

But I will do my Democratic duty and vote for her no matter what. But those are the facts from the field.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. "2. The image of the Republican Party is as negative as at any point over the last 15 years."

There won't be enough Rethuglicans left for us to worry about...

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28429&pg=1

[still_one]

71. My gut says guilliani would be the most formidable, which is why I think

the supremem court should be a major campaign issue as far as the Democrats are concerned. They should come out and say that they want to preserve Roe V. Wade, not be barely mention it as in 2000 and 2004.

Guiliani cannot say he will choose judges that will preserve Roe V. Wade, because he will lose his right wing support.

It really comes down to that, the Supreme Court, and if the Democrats can make it an issue, not let the other side or the media frame the discussion

[DemocratSinceBirth]

72. He Has Already Said He Would Appoint Strict Constructionist Justices

So whether or not he's actually pro-choice is irrelevant...

Don't fear him...Hillary is smarter than him, tougher than him, more personable than him, and has a better machine...

She will beat him like a drum...

[still_one]

73. If he is using their code "strict constructionist" then the Democrats should go after it

in a major way. Not only for Roe, but for the whole Federalist Society agenda, which encompases losing our civil rights

I just hope the Supreme Court in general becomes an issue, and not just for Roe V Wade, but for all the major Constitutional issues that have been violated the last 7 years

[DemocratSinceBirth]

74. Here

I would appoint judges like Chief Justice Roberts, Justice Alito … Justice Scalia and Justice Thomas," Giuliani said."

-Rudy Giuiiani


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/18/giuliani-vows-to-appoint-strict-constructionist-judges/

The reason I "support" Hillary at this time is because the evidence suggests she has the best chance against the EVIL GOP... If the evidence begins to suggest otherwise I will switch my "support" to the candidate that the evidence suggests has the best chance of beating the EVIL GOP...

[still_one]

76. thanks /nt

[opihimoimoi]

77. If Hill gets the Nom/Nod...she will win the general election...she is better than them PUBs who are

saddled with addled Brains....