What I REALLY feel about Obama's expression of faith.

[Perky]

What I found fascinating about it was that you do not hear this type of language from elected officials on the religious right or any of the old guard civil rights veterans who have gotten themselves elected. As a liberal evangelical, I found it both genuine and politically extraordinary and thus I can't call it pandering.

I certainly do not want his personal faith and fervor to overshadow his campaign, but I think this speechcraft is seminal in deconstructing the GOP's hold on the Southern white Evangelical. You pull a third of those away and get a large african-american turn-out and you might be looking at not only an electoral lock but maybe even a landslide.

[Indigent A-hole]

1. Mmmm.... landslide....

Wouldn't that be wonderful? A perfect vindication for those of us in the trenches these last 6 years, slugging it out to preserve our democracy.

I doubt, however, that Obama will eventually win the primary. Clinton's machine is a juggernaut, and unlikely to be derailed.

[lancdem]

2. She is the current front-runner

but Obama is a very formidable candidate. I look forward to seeing how this plays out. I believe our nominee will win in '08, regardless of who he/she is. That's because, since polling began, no president as unpopular as Bush has ever seen his party keep control of the WH in the next presidential election.

[Indigent A-hole]

16. Agreed.

My gf and I were talking, and we both agree that we'll support whole-heartedly ANY one of the Dem candidates. I've never seen a better slate in any election!

[Perky]

3. I disagree

The primary season is about organization, money and momentum. She has problems in Iowa, NH and South Carolina and Nevada has no clear cut value for anyone. Se may have all the money and organization she needs, but she needs a win to convice the voters she is electable. If there is a clear cut presumtpive republican standard-bearer after the firt four trials and she has not beaten the expectations anywhere she is going to have a very hard tome recovering.

[Indigent A-hole]

17. You forget the secret weapon...

At will she can trot out former President Clinton (who polls fantastically all over the country.)

Not to mention the current theme of "I am the one the Right is most afraid of" which I think will start getting legs really soon...

I don't know, I think with her national prominence and poltical machinery it will extremely hard to beat her.

[Perky]

20. Given the Rights' fear of Hillary they will come out in droves to vote

afainst her. That is what scraes the left.

It will be intersting to see how much they put Bill and Hillary on the same satge at the same time. Reminds people of Lewisnky et al.


ANyway stay tuned!

[Indigent A-hole]

30. I'm not sure you are correct

I think most moderate Republicans are sheepish over their support for a nimrod President and will contemplate voting for the other side, regardless who's on the ticket.

btw use the spell check or slow down typing, wouldya?

[GeorgeGist]

4. I find it disingenuous...

that Obama, like most people, continues to equate (spiritual) faith with religion and not the soul.

[brazos121200]

5. I don't think Obama will be able to win any southern state

in the general election. What will happen is the Southern whites will turn out in droves to vote against a black man AND a liberal Democrat. Now, if Obama was a conservative Republican, he would have a chance, many in the south would vote for him just to prove thay wern't 'racist'.

[gratefultobelib]

6. I agree with your assessment. Racism is endemic in the South. It is part of who they are.

If Obama is our candidate, they will be able to vote against him because he's a liberal and tell themselves that's the reason, NOT because of his race. A repub black candidate would never happen, so they don't even have to go there.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

9. Not so sure about that

I don't have statistics, but around here, many if not most of the local office holders are black. Our mayor is.

I think the South can and will elect a black president IF he is a Christian and conservative on social issues. Those things are more important to the people I come in contact with.

On edit: don't forget the obvious. There is a huge black population in the south. Almost 50/50 in some areas.

[Bluebear]

11. Well if he conservative on social issues I am not interested

[sniffa]

12. what's this about a victim mentaLity?

[LostinVA]

13. Yeah, I was wondering the same thing

Rising from the dead, eh?

[Bluebear]

14. It's a miracle! nt

[TallahasseeGrannie]

27. Miracle indeed

Good doctors and good medication and I think some good luck.

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

15. Praise Jesus!

[TallahasseeGrannie]

28. I always do! Thanks!

[TallahasseeGrannie]

26. Not quite dead

but close enough. Thanks for your concern.

[gratefultobelib]

19. Yeah--now that I read my post again, I was pretty glib! I just can't rid

myself of the pictures of the southern whites during the Civil Rights days, especially from the MLK documentary Eyes on the Prize. But people do evolve and change, and right, the black population is a factor in the South.

I do have one personal anecdote I can't forget. We had a black candidate running for the Senate in my state in 1994, and I was sitting with Dem colleagues watching the returns come in. When the results were shown, I groaned, but a woman sitting next to me mumbled, "I can assure you there are several in here who did not vote for him." Ugh. Pure racism.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

31. Well, there is no doubt that there is a lot

of racism in the South, but actually I personally encountered more in the Northeast. Like Boston.

I guess it is a familiar stereotype, and stereotypes exist for a reason.

Another factor is the huge migration to the "Sun Belt" since 1970. I would really like to see a well researched explanation of the political composition of the South. I'm sure they are out there, but it is also very fluid. Now we hear that the migration to FL has cooled off.

[Dorian Gray]

21. Very good points, TGrannie.

I think that people forget there is a large African American population in many southern states, PLUS, not every white person in the south is racist. I do think that it might be an uphill struggle for Obama, but it isn't hopeless. I hope not, at least!

[retread]

23. Tallahassee is NOT representative of the panhandle of Florida or the entire

state or the south.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

29. I'll give you that

insofar as Tally is the capital and has two universities, however, the racial composition is similar through much of the deep south. Of course, in South FL it gets more Latin. If Obama picks up the entire Black vote, that is a powerful lobby that will go a long way towards drowning out the rascists in the South.

[brazos121200]

10. Thats what happened here is Texas. The neighboring district

wass represented for 12 years by a conservative Repub congressman and a Latino, who was supported by many redneck whites who would never have supproted a good liberal Latino, this was so they can claim they are not recists, they voted for a Hispanic for congress, didn't they? Of course, the congressman voted against every bill that came up during those years that could have helped Hispanics in his district. Finally, this year the Hispanics in the district got together and booted him out.

[Clark2008]

18. Not it's not.

In fact, we're less racist here than in other parts of the countries. We just don't try to hide it like the rest.

If you REALLY believe this about the South, I have a bridge over the Sewanee River to sell you. :crazy:

I still don't think he'll flip any red states BECAUSE of racism, but I think that racism is ALL OVER and not simply confined to the South.

[Bluebear]

22. Harold Ford couldn't even win Tennessee. Things may be improving but don't let's pretend. nt

[Perky]

7. If you look at the polling numbers

Evangelocals are hacked at Republicans and the south is very splintered on Iraq. If Obama does not geneuflect towards Ebeneezer Baptist Church hwe will split the vote in the south. He simply shoild never emphasize race and dare the Republican to.

[brazos121200]

8. Evangelicals may be hacked at Republicans

now, but I guarantee you that come election day, they will vote overwhelmingly for the GOP, regardless of who the nominee is. Many evangelicals have sold their souls to the Neocon Republican party and they are lost to truth and rationality. They only say they are concerned about Iraq because it is such a disaster apparent to everyone. The next country to invade comes up, Iran for example, and they will be right on board to go get the heathens.

[More Than A Feeling]

24. Southern white evangelicals have as much a share in America as anyone.

The problem is when some of them, or anyone else, think they deserve more of a share than others based on money, race, religion, gender, sexuality etc.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

32. Excellent point.

[scarletwoman]

25. The ONLY reason I'd support Obama is if he is the only alternative to Ms. Clinton.

Frankly, I'm so damn sick of religion these days that any mention of it makes me nauseous -- and I consider myself to be a spiritual person.

I'm not all that impressed with Obama, and whatever flaunting of "religion" that he feels obliged to do is mostly irrelevent to me. I just think he's more show than substance, but I'm willing to reassess as his campaign progresses.

For now, his religious talk is mainly just an irritant to me. I'll be happy to ignore it if he comes out with good policy proposals in the meantime. If he proves himself to be a deft strategic thinker despite his religious views, I will more happily support him.

He is not my first choice -- that would be Kucinich -- but if it turns out that he is the best weapon against a Clinton nomination, I can pass on the religion stuff enough to support him.

sw

p.s. -- I should probably mention that NO way would I support Edwards over Obama. Not after his performance for AIPAC and the Likudniks.