Is it already over? I suspect so: Clinton v. Guiliani

[cali]

Will you vote for her?

I didn't always think it was inevitable, but I do now. Yes, I know we're still months away from the first caucus, but I don't see this changing. Hillary keeps pulling away, and repukes, desperate to beat her will hold their noses and vote for Rudi to run against her. I don't think Thompson stands a chance.

Although, I'm not a HIllary fan, I will absolutely vote for her. What are you planning to do if it shakes out this way?

[Iris]

1. you think Rudi will win their nomination?

[lvx35]

2. I think The OP is right, that's who they will try to run against her.

Hillary has the New York cred, so they will try to out do her with 9/11 cred of Guliani. I think its a bad choice and she will win, but I think that's what they'll do.

[cali]

3. Yeah, I do.

He's consistently led the repuke pack, and the stronger HIllary gets, the greater his support will be.

[Iris]

4. I thought that religious guy was leading their pack.

I just don't see Guilliani getting a lot of Southern votes.

[cali]

5. Do you mean Romney?

Yeah, he bought, er, won, the Iowa straw poll, but he's really not much competition at this point. Seems a lot of pukes dislike Mormons even more than they dislike Rudi.

[yardwork]

7. It's amazing how fast the far-right south will decide that NY is just fine

There is no bottom to the right-wingers' hypocrisy. The same ones who talk about "damn yankees" will vote for a New Yorker in a heartbeat if he's a Republican. The family values fundamentalist Christians will suddenly go all forgivey about those three wives.

Just watch.

However, I don't think that Giuliani has a chance in the general election if the machines actually tally the votes.

[Iris]

24. or they might just stay home.

[The Vinyl Ripper]

6. I suspect Rudi will win it..

If Hillary gets the nomination, there will be an utter tidal wave of right wingers coming out to vote against her.

And more than a few liberal/progressive folks who will stay home out of apathy.

I honestly can't think of anything that would energize the right wing electorate more than Hillary as a candidate.

[cali]

8. Maybe.

But I doubt you'll see many liberals sitting home or progressives, and women will be energized. If anyone sits at home, it'll be the religious right. What's more, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see as socially conservative third party run suck up some right wing votes.

[The Vinyl Ripper]

11. The religious right will turn out in droves..

To vote against Hillary.

I'm surrounded by them here where I live, they hate Hillary with the white hot flame of a Bessemer converter.

Hillary will move to the right immediately after she gets the nomination, that will turn off progressives and liberals.

Including me, I might add.

[Katherine Brengle]

9. Um, what DUer would vote for Giuliani before Clinton?

Jesus, at least she brings the party's values with her. He's a sociopath.

[cali]

10. Um, this isn't about

Duers voting for Rudi over Clinton. It's about whether people will vote for her or sit it out or vote third party.

[0rganism]

12. I seriously doubt the repubs will nominate Giulianni

While I'm not willing to cede the Clinton factor yet, perhaps a vain hope, I freely admit she has a strong position.

But I think you're way off on Rudy getting the nom. First, he's got the multiple divorces. That's a deal-killer in the "traditional social values" crowd -- heck, I'm a bit skeptical myself. There's the ethnic Italian thing, which a lot of their dimmer bulbs will resent. Also, the ties to decadent NYC will alienate him from the red-state faithful. His main claim to prominence is 9/11,9/11,9/11, and while this is a powerful tool, it will not get him over the hump on its own. Even granting that the RNC may owe him big time for pimping New York to them in 2004, this doesn't translate into a nomination.

Right now, it looks like Huckabee and Romney as the two major players for the Sith. Both have governorships on their resume', Romney (despite his Massachusetts Mormon background) comes across as a straight-shooting family man and Huckabee is a hardcore religionist. That translates into strong candidacy, don't "misunderestimate" either of them.

[The Vinyl Ripper]

13. If you look closely at the demographics...

The more fundamentalist the church, the higher the divorce rate.

And the lowest divorce rate of all is atheists/agnostics.

Rudi's divorces won't mean squat to the fundies, they will just make him seem "one of the guys".

[0rganism]

15. it's not the divorces themselves that will kill the deal, it's the sleaze factor

Every one of those exes and every member of their various families is a potential campaign tool for the other candidates.

Hypocrites though they may be, the "values voters" will still vote for someone else in the primary because they can. In a general they won't hesitate to pull for Rudi, especially against Hillary, but in the primary? No.

[The Vinyl Ripper]

18. There is not much sleazier

Than what goes on in a lot of fundie churches..

These people screw like minks. Think the "meth and man sex" RR leader who resigned not too long ago.

The right wing goes with the winner, if they perceive Rudi as being able to beat Hillary, that's who they'll vote for.

For all his faults Rudi does project an aura of a strong leader, the right are absolute suckers for that.

[0rganism]

22. They don't like the sleaze when it's public

You said it yourself -- the "meth and man sex" guy resigned. So have many others, in the face of exposed sleaze. Sleaze is fully acceptable in a republican leader, as long as it is not made public. All it takes is one black hooker with a receipt and a grudge, and it's all over for "America's Mayor".

[cali]

16. Romney's Mormonism

is evidently a huge detriment within the party, and his record as Governor of MA works strongly against him too. Huckabee doesn't have the organization or the money. Thompson, who is the unannounced darling (and who I think will fizzle) is also divorced, and it doesn't bother social conservatives at all. Rudi is doing well in southern states.

[0rganism]

20. I agree that the Mormon thing is a hindrance, but not the MA governorship

There may be specific legislation, like the state health care law, that turn off the base, but he can play it in the context of governing from a position of moderation in a strongly Democratic state -- and heck, even some of the GOPers may be thinking regulated health care isn't a bad idea at this point. They'll weigh the fact that he was elected by blue-state voters in MA against the fact that he might get elected by blue-state voters in the USA and it'll be a wash.

Huckster had enough clout, even without the money, to pull a strong finish in the mostly-meaningless Iowa straw poll. And if he continues to show in the top 4, the money and organization will come soon enough.

Thompson is distraction at this point. The idea that he'll be the next Reagan (also divorced, IIRC) is much touted but also much overblown. Still, he might get a jumpstart bounce from his announcement that could propel him up in the polls, and like Reagan his acting career will ensure that he delivers his lines adequately most of the time.

We'll see.

Anyway, Rudi is hardly a lock on the nomination. I'd give him better than even odds at landing the VP slot if he wants it, though.

[WI_DEM]

14. I don't think it's over yet, but if it's Hillary I'll vote for her

[Virginia Dare]

17. Hillary vs. Rudy..

yes, I'll gladly vote for her.


Welcome back Cali, where've you been hiding? :hi:

[cali]

19. Hi, Virginia

Thanks for the welcome. Summer and all. Not to mention that I like to take breaks from DU.

[Junkdrawer]

26. Self Delete - posted wrong spot

[rinsd]

21. I'm a huge Hillary fan and I think its far from over.

[emilyg]

23. I want a picture of

all of you holding your nose. You'll look stupid and it will hard to vote. hehe

[mmonk]

25. I'm depressed enough without these threads.

[Junkdrawer]

27. Surrender Dorothy...

[robcon]

28. It's not inevitable, but I think Clinton will be our next president.

She would really have to screw up something to lose it now, IMO.

[rAVES]

29. God dam it...

Will America ever learn?