WP: A 2006 DoD study concluded that the current Al-Anbar strategy may result in short-term success

[sabra]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/26/AR2007082601143.html

A Potentially Winning Tactic, With a Warning

By Walter Pincus
Monday, August 27, 2007; Page A11


Fourteen months ago, a 300-page Defense Department-sponsored research paper titled "Iraq Tribal Study: Al-Anbar Governorate" was completed and delivered to the Pentagon. That report -- put together by a distinguished group of retired military counterinsurgency specialists and academics, each with Iraq experience -- was circulated in the Army's Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., at the time led by then-Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus, now the top U.S. commander in Iraq. The study proposed changing how the United States interacts with Sunni tribal leaders, eventually contributing to winning their support in fighting al-Qaeda in Iraq forces.

...

It also cautioned that the main themes of the U.S. message in Iraq -- "freedom and democracy" -- do not resonate well with the population "because freedom is associated with chaos in Iraq." In addition, the Sunnis "are deathly afraid of being ruled by a Shia government, which they believe will be little more than a puppet of the Shia religious extremists in Iran."

...

However, the study warned that with two of the tribes, such cooperation "should not be considered as support for, or even acceptance of, coalition activities." Instead, it occurs "for no other purpose but to rid the area of a common enemy, al-Qaeda and its allies." With the third, it cautioned, "the recognized leadership plays both ends of the insurgency, coalition versus the insurgents, against the middle while maintaining a single motive, to force the coalition to leave Iraq."

In short, the study's experts pointed toward what has become a short-term U.S. success, while warning more than a year ago -- as the intelligence community did last week -- that it is all temporary.

[panader0]

1. The more one learns about the tribal differences,

the better Saddam looks as a leader.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. Lebanon's Civil War Might Be A Good Indicator Of What Will Unfold In Iraq

In Lebanon, the landscape shifted continuously. Coalitions were made and broken on an almost-daily basis as each tribe/sect jockeyed for power.

Nothing in Iraq will be long term, until a clever psychopath like Saddam comes to power.

[MidwestTransplant]

3. Of course it's all temporary. When they come back at us it will be with weapons we gave them

this time.