Michael O'Hanlon still spinning, but Washington Monthly charts the numbers

[ProSense]

The Work Behind Our Iraq Views

By Michael O'Hanlon
Saturday, August 25, 2007; Page A15

How can one gather and assess information about Iraq -- collected on a trip or from any other source? Information from a war zone is difficult to attain and interpretation is open to many views.

Unfortunately, much of the blogosphere and other media outlets have emphasized the wrong question, challenging the integrity of anyone who dares to express politically incorrect views about Iraq. Last week, Jonathan Finer criticized on this page <" Green Zone Blinders," Aug. 18> a New York Times essay that Ken Pollack and I wrote, as well as the comments of several senators, for claiming too much insight based on short trips to Iraq. Finer suggested that we did not leave the Green Zone, although we frequently did, on this and other trips, and he ignored how critical Pollack and I have been of administration policy in the past.

Worse, Finer and critics such as Rep. Jack Murtha and Salon columnist Glenn Greenwald have suggested that our analyses are based on a few days of military "dog-and-pony shows." Our assessments are based on our observations as well as on years of study. That experience creates networks of colleagues such as military officers whose off-the-record insights can inform ours and who in the past have often told us when they did not think their strategies were working or could work. While hardly making us infallible, this also led each of us to oppose predictions of a "cakewalk" before the invasion and to join Gen. Eric Shinseki in criticizing invasion plans that had too few troops and too little thought given to the post-invasion mission.

Still, it is true that we must critically assess the quality of information from Iraq to assess and improve current policy. In addition, the U.S. government needs to improve information gathering and share more information with the public; a recurring theme on our trip last month was the classification of far too much data. Consider the evidence behind arguments Pollack and I have made:

� Iraqi civilian fatality rates are down. The U.S. military has reported throughout much of 2007 that extrajudicial killings -- largely revenge murders by Shiite militias against Sunnis -- were down substantially since January. During our trip, the Pentagon showed us data illustrating that overall death tallies from all forms of sectarian violence were down about one-third from last winter's average....

� Counterinsurgency tactics are much better. Working closely with Iraqi partners, we are trying to provide security to civilian populations. Previous tendencies were to concentrate Americans at large forward operating bases and patrol in rapid, "drive-by" fashion...

� Iraqi forces are improving. This finding admittedly must be more hedged than the first two. While U.S. forces are more satisfied than before with the collaboration they receive from Iraqis, huge problems remain...

� Economic reconstruction is improving. Militarily embedded provincial reconstruction teams now make our development specialists more effective by providing protection in the field...

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Excerpts from intel report on Iraq:

"Iraqi Security Forces involved in combined operations with Coalition forces have performed adequately, and some units have demonstrated increasing professional competence. However, we judge that the ISF have not improved enough to conduct major operations independent of the Coalition on a sustained basis in multiple locations and that the ISF remain reliant on the Coalition for important aspects of logistics and combat support."

From Washington Monthly:

Violence Metrics:

...............................................June/July 2006....June/July 2007....Change
Iraqi Military and Police Killed..............349.....................429..........Up 23%
Multiple Fatality Bombings..................110.......................82......Down 25%
# Killed in Mult. Fatality Bombings........885..................1,053.........Up 19%
Iraqi Civilians Killed.........................6,739..................5,300......Hard to say1
(All violent causes)
U.S. Troop Fatalities..........................104....................187...........Up 80%
U.S. Troops Wounded........................983..................1,423...........Up 45%
Size of Insurgency.......................20,000+...........~70,0002........Up ~250%
Attacks on Oil and Gas Pipelines..............8...................143...........Up 75%

Infrastructure Metrics:

...............................................June/July 2006....June/July 2007....Change

Diesel Fuel Available.....................26.7 Ml...............20.7 Ml..........Down 22%
Kerosene Available.......................7.08 Ml.................6.3 Ml..........Down 11%
Gasoline Available........................29.4 Ml...............22.2 Ml...........Down 24%
LPG Available..........................4,936 tons............4,932 tons........Down 0.1%
Electricity Generated................8,800 Mwatts........8,420 Mwatts....Down 4%
Hours Electricity Per Day...............11.7.................10.14..............Down ~14%

BOMBINGS IN IRAQ....Last night I was reading the report O'Hanlon and Pollack wrote after their recent trip to Iraq (not the NYT op-ed, the actual report) because I was curious to see if they provided any actual metrics indicating that the surge was working, as opposed to merely subjective judgment about things like morale and COIN effectiveness. The short answer is no, though more about that later.

As I mentioned yesterday, though, there's one piece of good news from Iraq these days: the number of bombings is down this summer compared to last summer. This is one metric that O'Hanlon and Pollack did mention, but look at how they do it:

Successful U.S. tactics have gone well beyond classic military measures. For example, coalition forces are now trying to remove nitric acid and urea from stores, since these are the ingredients for homemade explosives. As a result, when many car and truck bombs are detonated these days, they are often less powerful than before, further helping to explain the reduction in casualties....

This is crazy. The Brookings Iraq Index (author: Michael O'Hanlon) doesn't specifically track car and truck bombings anymore because "we are no longer receiving useful data on the number of car bombs in Iraq," but they do track "multiple fatality bombings" in general. Here are the numbers:

<...>

This is the absolute best case for these numbers. In fact, they're cherry picked: the Feb/Mar/April period was unusually high for bombings, so any comparison with this period will produce the rosiest possible picture. Even at that, though, the lethality of bombings is the same post-surge as pre-surge. Conversely, if you compare apples to apples, and look at bombings this summer vs. last summer, the average number of fatalities per blast has gone up from 8.04 to 12.84. That's a huge increase, and suggests that bombs are getting more effective, not less.

Want more? The chart below shows the number of fatalities per bombing on a monthly basis since the start of 2006. If there's any kind of serious decrease in the effectiveness of Iraqi bombs over that period, I sure don't see it.

GIs' morale dips as Iraq war drags on (Front-line nation building? In the middle of a civil war?)

edited typo

[Astrad]

1. Good info. Thanks!

O'Hanlon's the kind of expert who would have fit in at the Wannsee conference.

[BeyondGeography]

2. So are those nitric acid-free bombs safe for home use?

Just wondering.

:freak:

(Great post.)

[JeffR]

3. Nice work, ProSense

:kick:

[ProSense]

4. Kick!

Thanks for the recs.

[ProSense]

5. Despite escalation, Iraqi deaths double.

Despite escalation, Iraqi deaths double.The Iraqi death toll “from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.” Compared to an average daily death toll of 33 in 2006, this year’s numbers indicate approximately 62 Iraqis have died war-related deaths each day this year. The AP reports that the recent bloodshed indicates the insurgency has drifted into northern parts of Iraq as a result of the escalation in Baghdad.

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[ProSense]

6. Kick! n/t