New New Hampshire poll: Obama has caught Clinton, dead heat.

[Bluebear]

Sen. Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani are on a roll in New Hampshire while Arizona Sen. John McCain continues to fall, a new poll shows.

The American Research Group’s July poll numbers released today show:

-- Obama has doubled his support in the first-primary state in the past two months and is now in a dead heat with Sen. Hillary Clinton at the top of the Democratic pack, with John Edwards third at 14 percent.

-- Giuliani has picked up support since late June, while Mitt Romney has leveled off, and the two are in a virtual dead heat. McCain has lost half of his support in the past month, according to the poll.

Among Democrats, Obama moved from 25 percent in June to 31 percent, while Clinton dropped 3 percentage points and is also at 31 percent support. Edward picked up 3 percentage points, moving form 11 percent in June to 14 percent.

Bill Richardson picked up a percentage point, to 7 percent. Sen. Joe Biden received 2 percent, with Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Dennis Kucinich at 1 percent each.The poll showed 13 percent of likely Democratic voters undecided.

Among Republicans, Giuliani moved from 19 percent in June to 27 percent, while Romney moved from 27 percent in June to 26 percent.

McCain, who received support of 30 percent of likely GOP voters in the ARG poll in May, dropped to 21 percent in June and to 10 percent in the latest poll.

http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=New+poll%3A+GOP+and+Democratic+races+in+NH+are+dead+heats&articleId=7a73d4f5-5aaf-43c7-8532-8eabb8f01d23

[Raven]

1. I'm not surprised at all. Obama has run a real grassroots effort up here

and NH folks like that. Obama's campaign has been all over me and my political group but not one word from Clinton.

[sandnsea]

4. What's your group

I'm fascinated in how each of the campaigns are approaching this election, who they are appealing to, the ground game in place, etc.

[B Calm]

2. I got a feeling that Edwards is going to surprise a lot of people....

[TwilightGardener]

3. Goody. Glad to hear it. Now he needs to move to Iowa, like Edwards did.

[earthlover]

5. Gees....seems like yesterday when all the pundits were saying Hillary would not have competition

in New Hamphire. All sewed up. Heck, if Obama ties Hillary in NH that is a victory for him!

Edwards seems to be doing well in Iowa. Obama is doing well in SC.

When will Ms Enevitable win? Edwards could get such a jump, like Kerry did, to jump 10-20 points going into NH. If he wins NH....well, he might go all the way. If Edwards wins NH, and Obama wins NH and SC goes to Obama....well, Hillary would stand to lose the most by this chain of events because she has based MUCH of her campaign on "enevitability". Any time you base it on enevitability, your support is weak, will jump ship if someone else is strong.

OK...got my armor on for all the Hillary Defenders to flame me.

[earthlover]

6. INevitability....hangs head in shame

[saltpoint]

7. Wow. McCain is just tanking in a state whose primary he won big in 2000.

I think on both sides, New Hampshire is going to be a real barnburner.

[book_worm]

8. I think whoever wins Iowa will come into NH with real momentum

Edwards potentially can catch up if he does well in Iowa.