CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE!!!

[Subdivisions]

World Oil Forecast Update

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2716#more

Executive Summary

1. World total liquids supply production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.



2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012.



3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).



4. World C&C year on year production changes to March 2007 and April 2007 (Figs 7,8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia; significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia has probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.



5. Key producer Saudi Arabia recently released an updated project schedule which does not show originally scheduled expansions of Shaybah phase 2, 0.25 mbd and Al Khafji Neutral Zone, 0.30 mbd. Consequently, it is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9,10).



6. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due to new OPEC projects (Fig 11). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to double by 2012 (Fig 12). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 13).

Here are a couple of graphs of the research results:



Here is the production forecast:



Some bad news (Oil production stagnant and headed for 5%/yr decline rates vs. 2.5%/yr increase in demand )
+
Some bad news (ethanol production, therefore the cost of food, is up)
=
What George Carlin said, re: Global Warming, can also be said for the fuel of civilization: "The planet is fine. The people are fucked."

Amen to that, George. Amen.

[Subdivisions]

1. WE MUST ACT NOW!!!

ADDENDUM TO OP:

Not a SINGLE response to this post. NOT ONE!?!

I caught this as it had sunk to Page 2. It was titled "World Oil Forecast Update". I changed the title in order to get your attention.

When I was composing this post, I suspected it was probably an excercise in futility. You see, I've been viewing this community as rather enlightened with regard to the current state of our energy resources. However, as time goes on, I've begun to realize that the psychological impact of realizing that our way of life is non-sustainable is just too much for most to take, including DUers. Nobody wants to even think about it, much less see it laid out right in front of them and then have a meaningful discussion.

And, that's why energy depletion is going to KILL EVERY GODDAMNED ONE OF US! WE MUST ACT NOW!!!

[profgoose]

2. pretty amazing isn't it?

TexEx,

You see the problem. This is difficult information. It's what we run into all of the time at The Oil Drum...

But thanks for your efforts to spread around our work. Much appreciated.

PG

[depakid]

6. Sleepwalking into the future

That's as apt a description as I've heard for level of denial among policy makers and the general public alike. People believe (like children) that things are going to keep going on the way "they always have."

A lot of folks are going to be in for a very rude awakening in the coming decade....

[BeHereNow]

15. Welcome to DU profgoose.

Hope you spread more of this information to our community.
Unfortunately, the people who really need to know
are all shopping for more stuff...:sarcasm:

:hi: :yourock:

BHN

[NickB79]

11. Oh, some of us are acting

I've known about this for about 3 years now, and I have my fall-back plans pretty well worked out for when (not if) we enter then next Great Depression. I've tried telling my friends and family about what's coming, but they mostly ignore me and keep driving their SUV's. There's not much left that I can do to help others prepare, so all I can do is make a plan to help myself, my girlfriend and my closest family members.

[Jemmons]

12. It might also be because even people with no insight to the oil

business can se that we are not going to fall off a cliff on this one. When prices on oil goes up, not only will you have more alternative energy sources becoming economically feasible, but you will also se more oil being produces from places otherwise not interesting. The kind of oil production that we were used to the for many years might not be around the corner, but there is not really a lack of energy. Just not an abundance of the cheap energy that lead to the wasteful consumption that we have seen for decades now.

And something else: If prices on food goes up because of farmers producing ethanol, it might just be a great thing for the farmers of this world - they will have a better market for their products.

[Yupster]

22. To me it comes down to population

If world population keeps growing at its current rate, everything else is just rearranging chairs on the Titanic. We'll eventually run out of everything.

[chaska]

3. Not news to me...

see my sig line. read and learn, naysayers.

[MadHound]

4. So what are you doing about this?

We're not going to get any help on this from our government or corporate America. They'll go for some short term, feel good measure, but they're not going to make the real hard changes that need to be made until it is too late. Thus it is up to us, each and every single one, to do as much as we can to change this situation. If you own your own home, put up solar or wind to power your house. Drive either high mpg vehicles or diesel vehicles, running on biodiesel. Conserve in a myriad of different ways around your house. Buy food from local, organic producers or grow your own. These are things that we can all do, in fact we all need to do in this era of ever scarcer oil.

[Odin2005]

5. no, just the source of energy is.

I get annoyed by the "Doomers," that is, the folks you think that PO will result in us going back to a pre-industrial society. We can have an advanced society without using fossil fuels.

[Subdivisions]

7. A supply/demand differential of only 5% caused what

we experienced in the oil embargoes of the '70s. People asked: "So what if the Ay-rabs won't send us oil. Why can't we just use our own oil?"

It was because the US could no longer PRODUCE ENOUGH OIL TO SUSTAIN OUR WAY OF LIFE. And our way of life is based on continuing economic GROWTH. The embargoes exposed the fact that production of oil in the US had PEAKED and was on the decline...and it still is declining.

If we lose 5% of today's production, it would have a profoundly deveastating impact on our daily existance. And we're on course to lose that 5% in just a couple of years. Meanwhile demand will continue it's merciless climb up the consumption graphs.

It's very simple. The energy and capital invested in extracting oil will soon overtake the energy and profit contained in that oil once it's extracted. That means that despite what may still be in the ground, obtaining it would represent a net loss.

Which means NO MORE OIL! And without oil, our way of life in unsustainable.

PERIOD!

[htuttle]

10. Sure, we 'could' have an advanced society without petroleum, but we won't

Just like we 'could' feed all the hungry people in the world, but we don't.

[mainegreen]

8. Soon I suspect Antartica will open to exploration.

And the artic? Well, global warming is a boom for norther oil exploration!

[DS1]

9. *golf clap for you just finding out*

Good job

[Capn Sunshine]

13. and the answer to everyone's problem

HEMP.



And I will raise up for them a plant of renown, and they shall be no more consumed with hunger in the land.

-- Ezekiel 34/29

[Subdivisions]

14. Hence your nick, I presume? n/t

[tkmorris]

16. I note that the oil ppb is already off significantly

A barrel of oil already costs substantially more than the chart predicts it should at this date. I expect that trend will continue well into the future.

[greyl]

17. The evidence agrees. nt

[progressoid]

18. Good - civilization is a little FU'd anyway.

[AntiFascist]

19. That's why part of the strategy behind the war effort may be to....

significantly reduce portions of the world population.

[Extend a Hand]

20. K&R

so more folks will see this article.

[MLFerrell]

21. The sky is falling! Be Afraid! BE AFRAID!

:)

[greyl]

23. No, just be aware. nt