Why anti-immigration conservatives fell flat in 2006

[NNN0LHI]

http://reason.com/news/show/118323.html

<snip>In other words, the hard-liners have a bucket of red herrings. Epochal issues can change an electorate's mood or historical patterns; eight years ago, anger over the drawn-out impeachment of Bill Clinton inspired voters to add more Democrats to Congress, despite the "rule" of the sixth-year slump. If a serious border crackdown and a Mexican Wall were really burning up American passions, they would have moved voters to action.

Some hard-liners argue they were moved. "The same voters who opposed Graf and Hayworth overwhelmingly approved four get-tough ballot measures," says Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies and a border hawk.

But those referenda didn't comport with the hard-line approach. One made English the official language of Arizona, a measure beloved not just by the anti-immigration crowd but by many pro-immigration pundits who think it will encourage assimilation. The other three initiatives cut off free social services for noncitizens, more in line with the harshness hard-liners expected from voters but a far cry from the "kick 'em out, build a wall" attitude they claimed to be riding to victory.

The idea that Americans might be more compassionate about immigrants than they let on is a tough one for hard-liners to comprehend. Most Americans, though eager to exercise some control over the border, don't see their would-be fellow citizens as a menace. Immigration hawks who look at those huddled masses and choose to see an ugly threat will keep getting the same results they got this year. They'll lose.

[FormerDittoHead]

1. Bit of a spin, isn't it?

Sorry, this article is SPIN.

Let me see:

Voters didn't elect ultra-right wing shoot-em-at-the-border candidates....

Instead of Graf, they vote for (1)Giffords who said (on her own website, but now suppressed):

"the Republican Congress to try to distract people from the truth that Washington has accomplished absolutely nothing to solve the crisis on our border over the last six years,” said Giffords. “It’s time to act and stop playing politics. Arizonans have been raising this issue for years, and Congress has not gotten the job done. Arizonans should not be left bearing the brunt of the Federal government’s failures on our border.”

cached copy:
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:Y908lUTPDiUJ:www.giffordsforcongress.com/2006/08/17/giffords-denounces-congressional-road-hearing-as-political-charade/+site:www.giffordsforcongress.com+immigration&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us&client=firefox-a

Not exactly a soft-liner on immigration, IMO.

And they didn't vote for J.D. Hayworth who was in the middle of SEVERAL Delay-style scandals:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J.D._Hayworth#Controversies

They elected, instead Harry Mitchell, who said (from his own website):

Secure Our Border and Stop Illegal Immigration

Every sovereign nation has a responsibility to secure its border. In Congress, I'll make it a top priority to secure the U.S.-Mexico border and stop illegal immigration. (it goes on).

HOW these two elections translates into voters not caring about illegal immigration with their votes is beyond me.

Let's look at the referendums passed:

Passed: Official English language bill.

Please explain how if it failed it would have been a victory for those against illegal immigration?

Passed: three initiatives cutting off free social services for non-citizens.

Again, if it had failed how would have been a victory for those wanting to clamp down on illegal immigration?

The FACT is that both Graf and Hayworth opponents promised to tighten up the borders, both characterized illegal immigration as a grave problem that has to be seriously dealt with.

IN EVERY CASE voters voted for TOUGHER ACTION ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.

I'm not advocating doing one thing or another, but I read this article and it's 100% SPIN.

[happyslug]

2. First, let me say I suspect Illegal Migration is DOWN the last year or so.

Remember to have migration you need two things
1. A area where work is available, even if that means taking jobs from people already living in that area AND

2. An Area where people are having a hard time making ends meet and thus must move to survive.

The first is often called a "Pull" on immigrants, the Second is often called the "Push" on Immigration.

The Right wing has concentrated on attacking the "Pull" by making it harder to cross the border, the effectiveness of this policy is questionable but that tis the Right Wing's attack point on Immigration.

The problem is immigration since the 1980s has changed, through the 1980s most immigration into the US was from Northern Mexico in the Southwest. At times this was seasonal, but stopped with the widespread adoption of those production Plants just south of the US Border.

Since the 1990s Migration has come from SOUTHERN MEXICO and CENTRAL AMERICA. The main push for these people has been the drop in the price of Corn do to the Adoption of NAFTA in the early 1980s. The price of Corn dropped, small farmers could NOT make enough money to survive as the price of corn drop in Mexico (Do to US dumping of US Corn overproduction), and thus these subsided farmers left their small plots of land and headed North.

Over the last year I have read reports of farmers in the US unable to get harvesters for their crops. Various reasons were given, but no one mentioned that maybe that less people were crossing the border for the first time (You have people coming back year after year, but many of these had switch from agricultural labor to construction and other types labor that paid more money). On the other hand do to ethanol production US Corn Prices have reach levels last seen in the early 1990s (And Mexicans are complaining about the high price of Corn for their tortillas). Could it be the reason for the Shortages of Agricultural Workers is the price of Corn is UP and Mexicans and Central Americans are staying home?

It has been said the best way to solve the immigration mess is to stop the "Push" as opposed to make the "Pull" harder. The coming Oil Shortage may have already lead to its first change, migration into the US may be falling for the first time since WWII.