Peak Oil: Real or not??

[MisterHowdy]

Lately, I've been reading a lot about peak oil and the doomsday scenarios that follow.
I have also read a lot of counter - peak oil arguments.

I can't, however, make up my mind on whether to believe this or not.
Some of it actually makes sense.

I know there is a lot of very smart people here on DU
what do you think about peak oil???

[Mark 2000]

1. Doesn't matter

It's dangerous now. Even if theirs tons left the time to find an alternative is now.

[dysfunctional press]

3. you still have time to edit you post-

re: ...there's tons left...

(it's like fingernails on a blackboard to some people)

[BlooInBloo]

5. Most have given up on trying to get anything like halfway decent English out of internet folks.

[BuyingThyme]

7. Welcome to DU, Mark 2000!

:hi:

[BuyingThyme]

2. Not.

[Solon]

4. Its a fact, the Earth, and all its resources are limited...

There is no free lunch. The question is WHEN the oil peaks, not IF. Most predictions fall around NOW or slightly into the future, me, I think we are at the peak itself, around the plateau, so to speak, and prices in gas and oil seem to reflect that.

[JeffR]

6. As Mad Max said in the Road Warrior.

"Find out."

We're all going to find out.

[Canuckistanian]

8. What do mean, "real"?

Do you think there's an unlimited amount of oil? Does the earth really have a "creamy center"?

Peak Oil happens when the production curve reaches it's highest point, just before supplies fail to keep up with demand.

Now, are we at that point? Is that your question?

We don't really know, because oil companies don't release reserve capacity figures on the major oil fields.

Something tells me we won't ever know - until it's too late to adequately plan for it.

[MisterHowdy]

14. good point about not knowing.

I guess my question should really be
do you believe in the apocalyptic events that some say will happen when the oil situation gets real bad.

I mean everything in western society is dependent on oil.
Especially food production.
In canada most food we eat comes from thousands of miles away.

[Canuckistanian]

22. DUer GliderGuider and I have met a few times - he's the authority on Peak Oil

Here's his website -"World Problematique"
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/

It's a series of articles on Peak Oil and the coming challenges.

It's not easy reading.

[MisterHowdy]

24. thanks for the link

I'll give it a go.

[Strelnikov_]

34. Yes, Grasshopper, that is the real question

Worldwide peaking of petroleum production is inevitable, and has probably already occurred a number of years sooner than previously expected due to geopolitical events (Iraqnam, MEND).

The question is can the rate of energy and societal transformation keep pace with the rate of petroleum and natural gas depletion. Without a doubt economic hardship will ensue before society accepts a new paradigm, but I believe we do have options if we are willing to accept a society based on more localized economic systems with much lower consumption rates of stuff.

Problem is, the future described in the previous paragraph is a pipe dream. We are a society that only seems to recognize entitlement. Leaders will probably be chosen that play on that sense of entitlement, and the final 'last man standing' resource war will result, the initial acts of which are already playing out.

In other words, our unwillingness to change will be our undoing.

As our fifth strand, we have to wonder why the kings and nobles failed to recognize and solve these seemingly obvious problems undermining their society. Their attention was evidently focused on their short-term concerns of enriching themselves, waging wars, erecting monuments, competing with each other, and extracting enough food from the human peasants to support all those activities. Like most leaders throughout human history, the Maya kings and nobles did not heed long-term problems, insofar as they perceived them.

. . .

Like Easter Island chiefs erecting ever larger statues, eventually crowned by pukao, and like Anasazi elites treating themselves to necklaces of 2000 turquoise beads, Maya kings sought to outdo each other with more and more impressive temples, covered with thicker and thicker plaster, reminiscent in turn of the extravagant conspicuous consumption by modern American CEO's. The passivity of Easter chiefs and Maya kings in the face of the real big threats to their societies completes our list of disquieting parallels.

From Chapt. 5, 'The Maya Collapses', from 'Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail Or Succeed’ by Jared Diamond

[MadHound]

9. I tend to think that peak oil is the real deal

And that if we don't change our society soon, we're screwed. One of the most convincing arguements for me is the fact that an oil man has led this nation into war in order to conquer one of the largest oil reserves left.

Another ominous signal is that Ghawar, the largest known field in the world, opened in 1951, is having to pump in twice as much seawater in order to retrieve the oil, ie for every gallon of oil retrieved from Ghawar, two gallons of seawater is pumped in. This is the sign of a failing well. Another ominous sign is the debate over opening up the Artic Wildlife Refuge to drilling. This is a comparitively miniscule amount of oil, something that we wouldn't have bothered with twenty years ago. But now the oil companies are going whole hog after it like it is the next great strike, even though in reality it contains only enough oil to supply the US for three years tops.

These and other signs lead me to believe that we're at Peak Oil, and perhaps just a bit beyond, going downhill quick.

[elocs]

10. If you want to get caught up with the peak oil doomsday scenarios, it will rule your life.

Unlike Y2K, the peak oil doomsday is just around the corner. Indefinitely always just around the corner. You can never do enough, you can never prepare enough, you can never have enough weapons and ammo to fight off all the people who want what you have.
If you get caught up in the peak oil doomsday scenarios you will not worry much about politics, but your every thought will be to prepare more and more for the doom and it will consume your life. While waiting and preparing (and sometimes hoping for) the dark days you will miss out on many sunny and beautiful days. In the end, you will die, just like we all do now except you will have survived and not lived. That is sad.

[MisterHowdy]

17. all ready starting to rule my life.

I've become paranoid.
Usually I can dismiss doomsday scenarios for the nonsense that they are because most scenarios
completely lack scientific or historical proof.
But this "peak oil" scenario seems very plausible, it actually makes sense.

Think I am starting to miss out on those sunny days.

[Deja Q]

20. That too.

:)

[rockymountaindem]

23. Sounds great!

Wanna watch "The Postman" with me?

:)

[Dogmudgeon]

11. We are at peak NOW

World oil production hasn't been able to break 85 million barrels per day in about two years. The "peak" has been described as a plateau. And even this "plateau" is slanting downward. I think the current production is around 83 million bbl/d.

The only argument against Peak Oil is that we could discover more oil. But oil discoveries have become infrequent and of poor quality. We would need to find a huge amount of oil (like >500 billion barrels) in a short time to stave off a peak-and-fall commodity situation.

I don't look at peak oil as doomsday. But it will be unpleasant. It will compel us to make radical changes in the way we live. Simply lowering the speed limit won't cut it. Car culture has become counterproductive. Suburbanization will have to end. But the economics are indisputable -- even given major new discoveries.

--p!

[BuyingThyme]

18. Couldn't OPEC simply decide to produce more oil?

[Solon]

33. Nope, next question! n/t

[BuyingThyme]

35. Wrong! Next nonsensical response.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article1779899.ece

[Solon]

36. First, that article is a "call" for OPEC to increase oil production...

Oil production is dependent on many different things, and they cut production for low consumption months, and increase it for high consumption. However, there is a limit on both, due to the fact that they have to pump the oil out of the ground, there are absolute limits as to how fast they can get the stuff out of the ground. OPEC cannot decide, tomorrow, to double oil production, that's physically impossible. I thought that was the type of question you asked, hence my "nope" response.

[BuyingThyme]

37. I don't think you really believed that I thought they could double production.

So I'm going to ignore the additional nonsense.

[Solon]

39. Considering the post you were responding to, yes that is exactly what I thought...

Pigwidgeon was talking about absolute production limits, and so am I, OPEC cannot decide to produce oil at a completely arbitrary rate.

[uppityperson]

49. Produce more oil how?

[BuyingThyme]

50. By no longer deciding to produce less oil in order to manipulate the price.

[uppityperson]

51. I believe resources are limited. Do you?

I don't know how they can get more if there is no more to get. That is the problem I see. You seem to be saying that there is much more to get, just that they are limiting what they get from what is there to get? (sorry for nonclarity)

[BuyingThyme]

52. I just don't believe they've yet reached a peak.

[pscot]

12. It's real

The question to be answered is, "When?" For the answer to that, keep an eye on Saudi Arabia's oil production numbers. The amount of oil the Saudis are pumping is actually less than their highest lvel of production. They say they can increase production whenever they want. The fact is they haven't done it. If Saudi Arabia has peaked, then global production has peaked. The oil markets are telling u something.

[MisterHowdy]

13. so far...chilling responses

I have to admit, I am leaning towards believing in the nasty effects of peak oil.
Peak oil, seems to really explain the behavior of the oil corporation and oil politics in general.

But alas, I am naive and young.
I could be wrong.
I hope i'm wrong.
I think maybe I should start stashing some food and buy a handgun : (

[Deja Q]

16. See #15 for why I'm no so sure it is real. A fabricated reality is just as profitable,

and what's the point of profit in a society where money is useless?

[Deja Q]

15. Psychological manipulation.

Okay, chances are it's real.

On the other hand, anything to justify insane prices after promoting vehicles that use more of the stuff makes no sense. Especially with our need for it for the war movements. Even with larger quarterly profits, they're going to want to spend that money long afterward.

A destroyed currency means it's worthless to the oil brokers too. Hastening global destruction is illogical; financially, corporeally, viably.


As you can see, both sides make sense. And others we've yet to fathom. The truth is in the middle, perhaps. On the other hand, look at all the 'get rich quick' schemes based on psychological manipulation. Why should this be. any. different. ?


One thing is real - burning generates heat. Automobiles run fast but waste a lot of energy as heat. So do incandescent light bulbs. I believe 'climate change'/'global warming' is far closer an actual reality than 'peak oil'.

[MisterHowdy]

21. hopefully, as you say, the truth is in the middle.

Some say a peak oil event will spark chaos and even cannibalism
but some say, a miracle alternative energy source will spring up in the nick of time to save us.

your right, in that, reality always seems to hover between two extremes

[Solon]

31. Yeah, so the oil companies, 50 years ago, told Hubbard to make up this Peak Oil shit...

and they have been denying it ever since, uhm, yeah right. :eyes:

[in_cog_ni_to]

19. Here's over 110 investigative articles by Mike Ruppert about PEAK OIL and ENERGY Look what happened

to his offices (first link). He exposed the truth and paid dearly for it. He's decided not to continue his work. The articles are at the second link. Peak Oil is real.


http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/070506_offices_burglarized.shtml


http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/index.shtml#oil

[Ilsa]

26. Holy crap! And his residence was burglarized also!

I'll read the articles. Thanks for posting both links.

The big thugs who run everything scare me with all the political power they command.

[BootinUp]

25. Its not the theory that I question

its the attempt to calculate when it occurs which seems to be fraught with error. As we approach it there will be a throttle back on the demand growth. And as market prices increase there will be more investment in recovery, locating new oil fields, alternate sources of oil and other energy etc. Its probably quite some time still (on the order of 100 years) before there is a real threat of insufficient oil for the richest countries. And also as it approaches alternative means of transportation will be utilized to lessen dependence. The developing nations will have it much tougher though.

[Solon]

28. Seems rather difficult to find "new oil fields" when all of them are practically tapped...

You seem to have no idea what it takes to actually extract oil out of the ground, now the fact that there have been absolutely NO major discoveries in almost 30 years, and this is with huge leaps and bounds in technology. 100 years? Try ten, and that is if we are lucky.

[BootinUp]

29. Your analysis avoids

any understanding of the economics and how it affects how hard they try to increase the output. But all the sniping back and forth doesn't really interest me. Enjoy.

[Solon]

32. What does economics have to do with it, I'm talking science, not voodoo...

sorry you can't see the difference.

[BootinUp]

40. Couple things

You might go back and read my first post. No where will you find my estimate for the date of "peak oil".

Try this google search "oil field discoveries"

My position is that there will continue to be affordable oil/fossil fuels for sometime into the future. Affordable is a relative term, I do not mean to suggest there won't be increases in cost.

As far as arguing about peak oil and when it will or has occurred, and whether the science you speak of is grounded in solid facts or grossly inaccurate I am not really going to go there tonight.

[Solon]

45. I find the definition of "giant oil field" interesting...

at one site its any field with 500 million barrels or greater. At current consumption, in the United States alone, that field would be run dry in 2 weeks. I find that not so reassuring. Of course, that's assuming that the oil can be extracted all at once, and immediately put to use, which isn't possible, of course.

Here, I'll give some simple math, first, total world reserves, the optimistic amount is about 1,650.7 billion barrels of oil, that's over one TRILLION. Thats a shitload, until you do the math, total world oil consumption, per day, as of 2004 is 82.59 million barrels a day. So, lets do some simple math, divide 1,650,700/82.59, and you end up with about 19986.681196271 days worth of oil left. So divide that by 365 and you end up with 54.758030675 years worth of oil left for us to use, at current consumption rates. I don't believe that equals a century, do you?

Of course, the numbers are worse if you consider that oil consumption is increasing by about 3 percent a year, and the oil itself becomes increasingly expensive as it is extracted from the ground, so the total economically recoverable reserves could last anywhere from a decade to 20 years, if that. This time table can also be further cut down if the reserve estimates are overly optimistic.

[jtrockville]

27. "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones."

As the Saudi oil minister Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani said, "the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones". We need to find alternatives, regardless of whether or not we'll run out of oil really soon.

[BuyingThyme]

30. I like that.

[Flatulo]

38. I think that the *easy* oil has peaked...

There is lots of dino goo locked up in the tar sands of Canada and the US midwest. But you have to boil water to make steam to separate it from the sand that it is imbedded in. To boil the water, they use ... fossil fuels.

I've read that extraction of oil from tar sands will not reach an economic break-even point until oil is well over $100 per barrel. And even then, it would only make sense to use nuclear-genrerated electricity to run the process.

I believe that soon we will have to reserve petroleum based fuels for mobile energy uses (cars) because it has such a high energy density (15,000 BTUs per gallon) and is so transportable.

For stationary structures (homes, buildings and factories) we really need to consider building more nuclear generating stations. It makes no sense to waste precious petrol on things that do not move.

Either that or we get ready to go back to the pre-industrial age.

[Extend a Hand]

41. oil is a finite resource

but I think an economic crash is a more eminent threat.

This is a great paper on the topic (which you may have seen...but just in case)
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html (I don't recommend the forums, however)

For up to the minute very technical details
http://www.theoildrum.com/ oil industry insiders, scientists, geologists posting

best peak oil daily related news collection site:
http://www.energybulletin.net/

My favorite peakoil/sustainable living blogger:
http://casaubonsbook.blogspot.com/

Other sites I check:
http://www.kunstler.com/
http://deconsumption.typepad.com/
http://www.aspo-usa.com/ (favorite author here is Tom Whipple)

[lonestarnot]

43. enough said.

[zippy890]

55. thanks for those links

I believe in the peak oil theories, it is based on common sense that oil is a finite resource. The oil that is left is too hard to refine or too far under the ocean to make it practical to our economy.

Reading The Long Emergency by Kunstler made a big impression on me
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency

I've been looking for a list of good sites and resources on the subject, so thanks again.
:hi:

[Extend a Hand]

57. I'm glad you found them useful

and I'm glad there were no grammar nazis in this thread... I mean imminent not eminent :blush:

I was so glad to see that rolling stone did an article on Kunstler and peak oil. I have a friend I've been trying to convince to prepare that is a subscriber :)

[Strelnikov_]

42. Peak Oil Is Primarily An Economic Event

Demand for a price inelastic commodity chasing too little, and eventually declining, supply. Price transients will wreak economic havoc similar to the 70' shocks. A persistent recession will ensue.

But it is the thermodynamic aspect of peak oil that will lead to the 2nd Great Depression. As the decline in conventional oil accelerates, EROEI (thermodynamics) will at a minimum severely depress, and possibly destroy, capitalist economies.

All of the post-peak supply mitigation options have net energy returns well below those of even today’s conventional oil. This means we will have to work hard just to replace the Quads of conventional oil energy lost. Growth in energy supply will not be possible, therefore economic growth will also not be possible.


And throwing more money at the problem will not make it go away. We are talking an energy source, after all. At some point, the energy obtained is less than the energy invested, making continuation pointless from a societal standpoint.

[TransitJohn]

44. As an abstract phenomenon...it's real.

As to the effects it will cause globally, and when....well, we'll see, eh?

[Solon]

46. The when is easy to figure out...

At least as an optimistic figure, I did the math in post 45, and came up with about 54 years worth of oil left in the world. Of course, this figure isn't accurate, it makes a few assumptions, the first is that oil consumption stays flat for those 54 years(it won't), second that all that oil is economically recoverable(it isn't), and third that the reserve estimates, which are optimistic, are actually accurate(doubt they are).

My math basically is for a situation where all oil is extracted, put in a big assed tank, in let's say Texas, and is refined as needed for consumption, which stays flat at about 82.59 million barrels per day. I'm going to guess and say it won't last that long in real life.

[TransitJohn]

47. :o)

Not to nitpick at all man....but the biggest thing I run up against when doing my own estimates is that as it becomes scarcer, prices go up, and more reserves are economically recoverable. I just can't find the proper fudge factor. :dunce:

[some guy]

54. To a degree that is true.

There is a different factor to consider as well. Energy invested to recover. At some point, it takes a barrel of oil worth of energy to recover a barrel worth of oil, and at that point, economics no longer matters.

[Solon]

56. That is true, and in some cases it is already happening, Oil Shale and Oil Sands...

Like in Canada are already being extracted, using a hell of a lot of natural gas, so much so that's its actually costs more in BTUs to get the oil out than how many BTUs the oil is worth.

That's the absolute, physical limitation, of course. However, I think that well before that happens worldwide, in conventional wells, it will still be possible from an absolute economical standpoint to extract the oil. But then you won't have any customers, because it would be too expensive for customers to pay 10+ dollars a gallon of gasoline. At that point, there is a real danger of the economy collapsing completely.

[RedCappedBandit]

48. ...is this a serious question?

it seems to me that the fact that we will eventually run out of oil is blatantly obvious..

[On the Road]

53. It Will Happen

but I doubt it's happened yet. The depressed price of oil for the last 25 years had a huge effect on exploration and drilling. There will probably be a rebound before we really hit the peak.

[gravity]

58. Well oil can't last forever, but we have enough to continue on for a while

There isn't going to be a doomsday scenario when we ever do reach the peak, which we could have right now, but it's going to raise the price of oil and the world economy would probably suffer a recession, but not a complete collapse.

The good news is that increased oil prices will encourage investment in alternative energies though, so in the long long term, it might be a good thing.

[ThomWV]

59. Sort of real, but more as a catalyst for action than a catastrophe in the waiting

Like the man said, the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones, nor the iron age because we ran out of iron. The oil age will end not because we ran out of oil but because less expensive (in an expansive sense of the word) and more sustainable sources of energy come into use.

By the way, do you know that the largest single user of oil in our country is the Air Force?

If this nation had a rational military policy we would not be having this conversation and many of our other problems would be gone as well.

[MisterHowdy]

61. hope your right about finding better sources of energy

A lot of peak-oil believers, however, consider this to be "wishful thinking"
i hope they're wrong.

[SubjectiveHistory]

60. Peak Oil Not The Problem

From what I understand peak oil is very much a concern within
the next 5-10 yrs.  For more information find archived c-span
video of Representative Roscoe Bartlett ( R - MD), he has
given many presentations in the house.

MORE IMPORTANTLY
Producing energy has never been a problem.  Since the time of
Tesla it has been possible to tap into far more powerful
energy sources.  Example, Stan Meyer whose buggy could cross
the country on approximately 22 gallons of water. (PS his
brother just posted all of his research on the WEB
http://waterpoweredcar.com/stan.html)

EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY
Ignoring the fact that doomsday exists today (911 was an
inside job) our real crisis is not harvesting energy, ITS
REMOVING IT.  In time all energy transforms into heat
(Conservation of Energy).  All of the energy from cars, light
bulbs, and the work you use to lift a penny above your head,
is eventually converted to heat.  So, should we start using a
new energy source, especially a cheap abundant energy source,
how long do we last before we cook ourselves.

Good news .. the so called laws of thermodynamics aren't
really correct.  Once we change the text books and have our
young engineers thinking outside these constraints we will be
able to except ideas like cold fusion (not a farce), excess
heat from electrolysis, and more importantly how to convert
energy into something more hospitable than heat.

Remember, when the energy companies start selling you those
cool cars that run hydrogen know that its all BS.
You may now start responding about how "crazy" I
must be.
-Bill

[LSK]

62. yes, eventually, Oil is not a renewable resource

The only question is how much is left?