Earthquake possibly caused by "Coronal Hole" on the Sun and was possibly predicted the day before.

[Renew Deal]

Run time: 07:32 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rb80na8AQGA   Posted on YouTube: August 22, 2011 By YouTube Member: thebarcaroller Views on YouTube: 44898   Posted on DU: August 24, 2011 By DU Member: Renew Deal Views on DU: 3340

 
This video was posted the day before the Great Virgina Earthquake of 2011. More quakes are possibly on the way the next few days.

[sudopod]

1. No nt

[Renew Deal]

2. Please describe your qualifications.

Thanks

[MineralMan]

5. Describe the video maker's qualifications first.

Uff da! I went to the site linked to at YouTube. There's absolutely no information on that site as to who this person is or on what basis these predictions are made. IN fact, other than the videos, there's almost no information at all there.

[laconicsax]

7. They made a video. What more qualification could you want?

:rofl:

[MineralMan]

9. Bunch of videos. They even have a web site:

http://www.solarwatcher.net/

You can find more videos there, but no information on who this person or these persons might be. No background. Nothing. The site looks brand new, and the linked pages on the site are empty.

But, hey, the guy can copy solar video imagery from Nasa or somewhere and make predictions. And we're supposed to blindly accept them for some reason I do not understand.

Very rigorous science, indeed, this is. Woo-woo...

:rofl:

[AtheistCrusader]

14. It's ignorant bullshit.

The author is implying that there is a strength correlation between an earthquake, and it's trigger. Whether it be fault lubrication from water table changes, nuclear detonation, gravitational strain, or even hypotheical solar wind/particle streams.

The trigger has fuck-all to do with the magnitude of the resulting quake. None of these possible triggers load the ground with elastic strain. All the energy to produce a quake is locked, right there, in the ground, before the quake, awaiting a tipping point of strain where the 'hang up' on the fault is released, and the fault moves.

So, his "7.7m" bullshit is exactly that. Bullshit.

Then there's the straight-out-of-his-ass notion that the position of a sunspot on the sun can correspond to the position of strain upon the earth's surface (he's trying to match up latitudes), which is utter nonsense. Particles tend to be released in a straight line from the sun's surface straight out (in 360 degrees, in 3 dimensions), but certain features can angle particle streams. Even if we assume perfectly straight emissions, obviously, a sunspot that nadir on the sun's surface would release a stream of particles that would never come within tens of millions of miles of the earth's orbit.


Also, keeping score, he was wrong on the HEMISPHERE, let alone, the magnitude and either individually latitude or longitude of the quakes of note.

Predicting powerful quakes near vanauatu is a bit like predicting whether the sun will shine tomorrow.

[sudopod]

18. Qualifications aside

By what mechanism does a slightly gustier solar wind, which is essentially vacuum with a light sprinkling of magnetized hydrogen plasma in it, affect the motion of continents that are made of several miles thickness of compressed rock and which have masses of billions of tons? For the sake of this exercise, pretend that the magnetosphere and atmosphere do not exist.

Sorry if this is gruff, but geeze, stop and think it through for a second.

[FSogol]

3. Haw-haw!

:eyes:

[MineralMan]

4. OK, so this guy is predicting earthquakes by looking at activity

on the sun, right? From what I can tell, he's mapping his predictions based on the location of coronal holes on the sun in similar relative positions. That just makes no sense at all. There's no particular physical mechanism that would cause such a correlation. But, it keeps the guy busy, I guess.

[laconicsax]

8. He also makes predictions based on planetary alignment and comets

It seems that if you make as many predictions as possible, people will forget the wrong ones.

[MineralMan]

10. Yah. Either that or you delete the wrong ones from your website.

Wackadoo Science, Incorporated. Find more at Woo.com

[trotsky]

20. And more importantly, the chance that you guess correctly once in a while goes way up.

And then you've got followers who will diligently pos links to your nonsense all over the Internet. You're in like Flynn! Welcome to Crankdom!

[yurbud]

6. I thought it might be all the fracking back east

[MineralMan]

13. No fracking anywhere near the epicenter in VA.

More speculation on no basis at all.

[yurbud]

26. that's what ''I thought it might be'' means. But I'm sorry if I offended any frackers here

[MineralMan]

11. This video has no political content whatsoever.

Wrong forum.

[russspeakeasy]

12. Not true.. I read on another post that it was caused by gays..

:evilgrin:

[David Sky]

27. "It's all because the gays are getting married"....

Little music to go along with that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rixkck8QnjY

And, if you like that..... this guy will give you some smiles about the KKK, too!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgwnkNDT4Yg

[russspeakeasy]

29. Excellent...

:evilgrin:

[tclambert]

15. What? Is it based on sympathetic magic?

The sun vibrates a certain way so the Earth vibrates in a similar way, just out of sympathy. Sort of a voodoo thing.

This reminds me of the way economists like to make their field resemble science by using a lot of scientific sounding terms and mathematical models. Unfortunately, they often base their line of reasoning on ludicrous assumptions, which invalidates the whole thing.

[sudopod]

19. YES! Excellent analogy. nt

[laconicsax]

16. It was also possibly caused by tectonic gnomes under orders from Space Ghost.

[AlbertCat]

17. Most likely baloney

As Wikipedia says:

Despite considerable research efforts by seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day or month.<1> However, for well-understood faults the probability that a segment may rupture during the next few decades can be estimated.<2>

[xocet]

21. Just look at the other videos on his YouTube account; ...

for example, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzKZf_-vnGk .

Appended to many of them he states: "This is my own analysis using Heliocentric Imagery, geocentric portrait and harmonic translations to predict possible effects here on earth, i do not use astrology in my methods and research."

Who knows what he is describing? In a way, it is too bad that he is not using astrology, the astrologers might have actually adopted more careful methods than what he is using. For an example of this lack of care, one may observe at time index 1:14 of the video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzKZf_-vnGk) that the so-called alignments are shown with planetary orbits that are wildly out of scale with respect to one another. If one goes back to the program that he is using and sets it to scale the orbits correctly, the non-two-body alignments disappear.

Of course, this presumes as a fundamental principle that planetary alignments actually have some significant effect that is worth noting. It is not clear that they do have any significant meaning. It should also be noted that any two planets' centers are aligned by the definition of a line. At any rate, I'll leave the theory of planetary alignments to him.

Another doubtful thing is whether the program which he is using accurately portrays and/or calculates anything at all. I cannot say and am unwilling to waste the time necessary to check it.

At any rate, with the level of sloppiness that is portrayed in his earlier work, with the lack of any citations to or references to any known and accepted results, and with the lack of any attempt to explain anything, it appears that he has merely produced some videos that are all appearance and no substance.

In advance, if anyone believes that I am being too dismissive of his "work", one should recall that the burden of proof lies with the person who makes the initial claim. I know that this statement sometimes does not go over well here on DU, but that is the way it is: i.e., if one makes a claim either rational or empirical - one must back it up. It is no one else's responsibility; i.e., if one claims that petunias inhabit the L1 point, one better adduce the evidence for this claim in conjunction with the claim.

[Confusious]

22. As someone else said

Ignorant bullshit.

[IronicNews]

23. Common, peeps! He has a smarty foreign English/Australian accent...it must be true.

[nilram]

24. Most of his concern was for the southern hemisphere, when he looked world-wide,

NONE of his green shadings (indicating areas of potentially higher earthquake activity) were over Virginia. (Unless someone named 'Virginia' was in Hokkaido, Japan, Northern China, or northern Africa at the time.)

Bookmarked, so I can go look at his web site for a revision to this prediction that tells us how he's looked at the data again and now sees how Mineral, Virginia was in the cards -- I mean, sun spots.
 

[DeSwiss]

25. K&R n/t

[David Sky]

28. Is this comedy? Did it get played on the Fox Comedy channel?

Frequency of Earthquakes..... worldwide DAILY !!!!!!!!!

Source: USGS

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php


Earthquake Facts and Statistics
Frequency of Occurrence of Earthquakes

Magnitude Average Annually
8 and higher 1 ¹
7 - 7.9 15 ¹
6 - 6.9 134 ²
5 - 5.9 1319 ²
4 - 4.9 13,000
(estimated)
3 - 3.9 130,000
(estimated)
2 - 2.9 1,300,000
(estimated)