Ireland's predictably historic electionFianna Fáil collapses. Labour slips up. Fine Gael triumphs. Meanwhile, it's not just Gerry Adams who's fuzzy on economics
The word "unprecedented" has lost all force in Ireland. The general election this Friday is teeming with so many unparalleled moments that even "historic" now seems like a hackneyed term.
A fundamental realignment of Irish politics is under way. Before next weekend is out, Ireland will witness the largest turnover in seats and personnel since independence was achieved in 1922.
Fianna Fáil, the party of government for 61 of the last 79 years, has seen an absolute collapse in its support. At the last election in 2007, the party, then led by Bertie Ahern, almost secured an overall majority under the proportional system Ireland uses, with 41% of the vote. The latest Irish Times poll shows just 16% support for Fianna Fáil, now led by Micheál Martin following Brian Cowen's resignation in January. This would translate to its lowest vote share ever.
The momentum has been firmly behind the main opposition party, Fine Gael, since the IMF came to Dublin last November. Support for it stands at 38% and the party may have the option, for the first time in its history, of leading a minority government with the support of like-minded independents. Enda Kenny, now certain to be the next prime minister, has, however, repeatedly insisted that a "strong and stable government" is imperative given the current economic conditions. That can perhaps be taken as code that there's a preference for a coalition with Labour.
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Smithwick’s or Guinness?Most observers of Irish politics, as well as most rational Irish voters, have always puzzled over the real extent of the differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. They have their origins on opposite sides of the 1922 civil war, but these days both are centre-right parties with a populist touch and privileged access to the Catholic hierarchy, and it’s difficult to distinguish their policies. Their cultures are far apart, however – or used to be. Fine Gael has tended to be favoured by old money, Fianna Fáil by new. Fine Gael was traditionally supported by professionals – doctors, lawyers and anybody else who could put a brass plate outside their offices – while Fianna Fáil has been favoured by the property developers and the men in mohair suits. Fine Gael notables used to go to fee-paying schools, Fianna Fáilers to the Christian Brothers. Fine Gael supporters are more likely to drink Smithwick’s; Fianna Fáilers, Guinness. Fine Gael was the party of Garret FitzGerald – or Garret the Good, as he was known. Fianna Fáil was the party of the late Charles Haughey, or Charlie the Corrupt. Fine Gael has gone into the present election with a pledge to scrap the requirement to take Irish as an exam in the school Leaving Certificate. Fianna Fáil, one of whose stated aims is to restore Irish as the vernacular, disagrees.
Fine Gael’s great strength has always been that it was not Fianna Fáil, and that it was better at not being Fianna Fáil than any other party. Now that Fianna Fáil, in coalition with the Greens, has led Ireland into economic disaster, this is a great advantage. If Fianna Fáil goes into electoral meltdown on Friday, however, and if it then disappears from the Irish political landscape, there will be nothing left against which Fine Gael can define itself. Unless, that is, it can take advantage of the newly created gap on the Irish electoral market and become Fianna Fáil.
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