It's worth putting the full transcript to see the stats that were discussed just before this encounter (I'll add it if I can find it because the graphs told the picture better than the text does)...
---- --- ----
COOPER: Yes, a lot of money being spent.
I know Ari Fleischer and James Carville are champing at the bit to get in on this.
Before we go to them, let's look at the "Raw Data" on the economy.
Chief business correspondent Ali Velshi joins me.
So, Ali, is it good news or bad news? What's the picture?
ALI VELSHI, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, listen, let's look at this.
This is a consumer economy. And while the consumer feels besieged, the bottom line is, there are three things that are going to make this consumer feel better and reengage and get this economy on track. The first one is the stock market.
Take a look at this. The -- the stimulus package that we had was passed on February 17. Shortly after that, the market -- major markets -- we're looking at the Dow right now, but it's the same thing on the S&P 500.
Let's go back. Oh, we can't go back to that.
Bottom line is, that bottomed on March 9 and charged up until -- here we go. We're back -- bottomed on March 9. And see where this market has gone. It's up more than 43 percent since then.
So, if you are looking at markets, the value of your investments going up, as one leg of economic prosperity, you're doing well. Let's take a look at housing, the second leg of this.Back in February, the average -- the median price of a single- family home was $164,000. Look at how that's gone up. It was down a little bit in August. But the bottom line is, home prices have gone up. Why? Because we have got very low mortgage rates, right now, 4.94 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage, $8,000 if you're a first- time homebuyer. Second leg of the economy doing well. Let's look at the final leg. And this one is the most important. It is jobs. Take a look at job losses since the stimulus package was passed. Back in January, 741,000 jobs were lost. That was tremendous.
It's been lessening generally since then. June, we had a bit of an anomaly. Then we started to lose fewer jobs. Now, in September, we have just had reports that there were more jobs lost than expected. This is where the administration has a problem. This is a consumer economy. The way you feel strong is if you have a job and an income. This is the challenge that the administration still has to meet -- Anderson.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) COOPER: Let's talk about the "Raw Politics" with CNN contributor and Democratic strategist James Carville, and Ari Fleischer, a former press secretary for President George W. Bush.
James, what about this? The administration is characterizing these as safety measures. They're not saying it's a second stimulus. But isn't this really a second stimulus?
CARVILLE: Well, look it, if unemployment stay this high, they're going to have to do something. They are going to have to extend unemployment compensation benefits. They're going to have to do something for these state governments.
I mean, you can call -- I don't know what you call it -- what you're going to call it. Maybe you don't want to call it stimulus. Maybe want ought to call it something else. But you're not going to have a million people run out of unemployment benefits. I don't think that you are. And I don't think it would be a very smart thing to do.
COOPER: Ari, they're not calling it a second stimulus, but, I mean, isn't that what it is?
ARI FLEISCHER, FORMER GEORGE W. BUSH WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Well, they're not even going to be able to call the first one a stimulus, if it doesn't stimulate anything, which it hasn't.
The second one is just more spending. And that's what it ought to be called. But the one thing that ought to be done, though, Anderson, it is -- it is the right move. It is the compassionate move, with unemployment at 9.8 percent, to extend unemployment benefits for additional time.
The jobs are not there to be had. And, so, you cannot ask people just to cut off from unemployment. But the real issue is, how do you generate jobs? And what we're finding out is, President Obama's spending programs did not generate jobs.
CARVILLE: Well...
FLEISCHER: So, why do more of what didn't work in the first place?
CARVILLE: Well, if I might jump in here and remind Ari that, under the last month of the Bush presidency, we were losing about 632,000 jobs a month.
We're down now to about 200-and-something-thousand a month. And, you know, I think that anybody would -- anybody that does math would say that that's pretty good. I think, under the administration of George W. Bush, we lost more jobs than probably any president in modern American history. So, we don't really need lectures on jobs from Republicans.
What we need is to continue with a policy that at least is slowing this down and is compassionate. And we have got to -- we have got to get this stimulus -- and we have got to -- we have got to get this stimulus money -- we have got to get the money out there to these people that are unemployed. And we have got to do something about these state governments.
COOPER: Ari, I want you to respond in a second, but I have got to take a quick break. We will be right back.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: Also tonight, after that discussion, another young victim of Chicago violence, a 6-year-old boy, now partially paralyzed, plenty of people seem to know who shot this young man. So, how come no one is talking?
And, later, Mel Gibson gets his record clear. Remember the DUI with the anti-Semitic rant? Well, now his conviction has been erased. Is that fair? Is that normal? Well, we will find out tonight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: We're talking about what measures may be on the table to stimulate the economy, as job losses mount. President Obama and his economic team are being careful to not call it a second stimulus package, but whatever measures they eventually take will most certainly be attacked by critics as proof that the $787 billion stimulus plan was a bust.
Joining me again is CNN political contributor and Democratic strategist James Carville, and Ari Fleischer, former press secretary for -- former press secretary for President George W. Bush.
Ari, James, before the break, was saying, look, Democrats don't need lectures from Republicans because of the record of the last administration.
FLEISCHER: Well, you notice that somebody is in trouble facing the future when all they want to do is throw stones at the past, and especially a past that is now increasingly long gone.
Look, the job of people who are in office is to solve problems. And I think the biggest problem we have is, President Obama's economic policies have made things worse and left us with such a huge, massive debt, a huge growing deficit, that we're creating even deeper problems down the road. We're not solving problems.
The other factor I have to remind you about is, all the president's estimates when he came into office said the stimulus would lead to a situation where unemployment would not cross 8.0 percent. We're at 9.8 percent. And we're probably going to cross 10 percent.
The very things they bragged that the stimulus would do didn't work. And it shouldn't be a stimulus. The very things they bragged that all the spending would do are just contributing to the public saying, stop it, Washington. Stop bankrupting our country.
COOPER:
James, has the stimulus worked? CARVILLE:
Well, certainly it has. I mean, again, if you look at 630,000 jobs we were losing when he took office, we're down to like, what, 253,000, which is -- which is high, but it's a lot better than that -- you look at every measure from economic growth to stock market performance to everything else, things are starting to get better.
As we know, jobs are sort of a lagging indicator. No one is satisfied with this. But it's a far better record than the last administration had. And, by the way, when you are making progress, we don't go back to the exact same policies of not regulating these banks, of -- of giving tax cuts to wealthy, of having unfunded entitlements, like Medicare Part D, that's not funded, or starting wars that are not funded, for tax cuts that are not funded.
I'm glad to see people are on this deficit bandwagon and remembering that the last -- when we had a $4.5 trillion surplus under the last Democratic president. So, yes, we -- we -- we can do some things.
And -- but we have got to -- and I agree with Ari. We have definitely got to do something about these unemployment compensation benefits.
FLEISCHER: If James wants to call progress 9.8 percent unemployment, $1.2 trillion deficits, and no end to them in sight, then I don't think any Democratic candidate is going to ask James to do their race in 2010.
CARVILLE: Well...
(CROSSTALK)
FLEISCHER: That is the exact opposite of progress. And that's the problem.
We're not -- what was advertising that would work, Joe Biden said just two weeks ago that it has worked beyond his wildest dreams. These dreams are turning into a nightmare for this country.
COOPER: If the first stimulus worked, why not call this, all these new things, a second stimulus?
CARVILLE: Well, you can call it whatever you want.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: Well, it's not being...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: Well, it's not me. I don't get to determine this kind of stuff.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: But they have to do something.
The name of it is not -- I think they call it the American Recovery Act or some -- or some euphemism like that. But they can -- it might be the Unemployment Compensation Act. I don't care what they call it, but they're going to have to do something to humanely deal with these people who -- you know, whose jobs have been lost and been lost for a long period of time.
And
most of the jobs that are lost were lost -- were not lost under this president's administration. COOPER: Ari, politically, are the Republicans salivating at the possibility of what might be a de facto stimulus package? I mean, wouldn't that energize the base even further?
FLEISCHER: Well, first of all, I would call the previous one the let's go broke and get there quickly act.
The issue still is salivating over a second stimulus. One day, the economy will recover, and probably it's going to be because the business cycle has finally, at long last turned, after an excessively long recession. This has been a much longer recession than the historical average. So, it will -- inevitably, it will end and jobs will get created.
But I don't think anybody will be able to attribute that to Barack Obama's stimulus policies, which are increasingly becoming old news and unsuccessful news. So, if jobs do start getting created some time in the second half of next year, what makes anybody think that an act of law that, at that point, will be one-and-a-half years old had anything to do with it?
There's a business cycle in this country. And thank goodness the private sector is still a little bit bigger than the government. And the private sector...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: So, wait.
So, Ari, you're blaming him for -- for a loss of jobs, but any recovery, you won't give him credit for? (LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE:
Right. FLEISCHER:
No, I think the loss of jobs started under George Bush's watch and it continued and accelerated under President Obama's watch. And I think that's partially because of the business cycle, partially because of government policies. CARVILLE:
How did the loss of jobs accelerate, if it went from 632,000 to 253,000? Maybe my math is off.(CROSSTALK) CARVILLE:
But I don't think it's accelerated.(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE:
I think my math is off. (CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE:
Where I come from, going from 632,000 to 253,000 is less. But let me go further. Let me go further.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: I let you...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: Let James finish.
FLEISCHER: Where I come from, going from 7 percent unemployment to 9.8 percent unemployment is worse.
CARVILLE: All right. You know what?
Let me -- let me put it to you bluntly. The chief economist of Goldman Sachs said the stimulus is probably worth about 3 percent of GDP. And, as more and more of this kicks in, and as people receive unemployment compensation benefits, I'm sure there is nothing that would stimulate the Republican base like seeing people who are out of work as for no fault of their own not have this.
COOPER: We are going to have to leave it there.
James Carville, Ari Fleischer, thanks.
CARVILLE: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: Well, if you're curious where all the stimulus money has gone, we're keeping track of it
Go to www.AC360.com for the breakdown.
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