Iran has just thrown a monkey-wrench into BushCo’s plans…

[Junkdrawer]

BushCo has a definite MO for preemptive wars:

Step 1: Create a Conventional Wisdom climate that country X is a danger and should never be allowed to cross line Y.

Step 2: Obtain authorization from the Senate and the UN that they have the right to use force to prevent country X from crossing line Y – not that, perish the thought, they would use force, but rather that they need the authorization so that diplomacy can work.

Step 3: Subvert all attempts at diplomacy, arbitrarily declare that country X has crossed line Y and invade.

So Iran, the new country X, today just announces that it has crossed line Y before Step 1 was very far along. Now, if BushCo wants to bomb or invade, they must either:

1.) Do it on their own authority

-- OR --

2.) Ask for permission to bomb or invade outright with no pretext of diplomacy

Seems Iran has their number.

[JuniperLea]

1. I wish you were right.

Congress is on vacation... and don't forget that lovely Patriot Act... my third and most final point is: since when does Bush play by the rules? He would pronounce himself dictator and attack before asking permission of anyone.

[leftchick]

2. exactly

he doesn't need no stinkin permission. He has unitary authority aka: He is king.

[Junkdrawer]

3. The fact that Congress is on vacation only shows that BushCo wasn't...

planning on Step 2 for a while. I really don't think they anticipated today's move by Iran.

[napi21]

4. I'm not so sure even Shrub would nuke Iran without the support

of most of the American people. I also think it's impossible for him to get this time!

HE was the one who quoted the "fool me once" addage, and the people knew that already!

[Junkdrawer]

5. That my point. The only way he would have got Congress's permission...

was either in retaliation for an Iranian attack on the US or as a diplomatic tool to force Iran to comply.

So Iran just says "Hey, we're refining uranium now".

[90-percent]

6. Monkey Wrench?

I don't want the monkey wrench to come in the form of a mushroom cloud?

What is this Iranian Monkey Wrench of which you post, I might ask?

-85% jimmy

[Junkdrawer]

8. "Iran Has Enriched Uranium for First Time"

On US national TV, Iran announces that they have begun uranium enrichment - days after Bush declares that he will never let them do that.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2220850&mesg_id=2220850

[hobbit709]

7. Assigning rational motives

to an irrational mind never works. I have never been this scared both for my country and for the world as I am now. Not even nixon worried me this much.

[HereSince1628]

9. The only potential problem is that bombardment is probablistic

You gain certainty with more bombs but you approach certainty asymptotically.

The decision to bomb Iran really depends on how willing Bush is to gamble he can prevent a meaningful counter attack by Iran. But then Bush knows that any counter attack will just serve as justification for the first strike.

I think an attack on Iran is too possible to ignore. If I was an Iranian government official I'd surely be taking it very seriously.

[Junkdrawer]

10. I think Iran is gambling that the fig-leaf of Senate/UN approval...

is more important to BushCo than many seem to think.

[HereSince1628]

12. I hope and pray Iran is not so naive.

Bush doesn't give a shit about the UN. And less about senate approval.

Gonzales will spin the IWR to cover an enlargement of the theatre of war to include Iran and even Venezuala if it serves the Dark Lord's ambitions.

[Junkdrawer]

13. Not saying I agree with Iran, but that's what they seem to be doing...

Clearly, they're not going to play Saddam's "If I obey the UN resolutions at the last minute, they won't invade" game.

They're going to openly defy Bush and Israel and say it's their sovereign right to do what they feel is in their national interest.

[Junkdrawer]

14. PS: Perhaps you're thinking about US public opinion....

You're right. Bush doesn't give a shit about the UN and Senate approval in regards to US public opinion.

But he DOES care that other nations do not see the US as such a threat that they need to form a military alliance to stop us.

[HereSince1628]

15. The point you make is why Bush is so dangerous

He knows that Russia, China, and India are not particularly supportive, but he believes that none of them can stand alone against the US. Moreover, he knows that currently there is not a coalition against the US.

If Bush is to act, he must do so before the opportunity is lost as the world coalesces against his imperialism.

[Junkdrawer]

11. BTW: We all tend to focus on the Step 1.) Iraq lies...

But BushCo lied at all three steps:

1.) They of course lied when then were hyping the danger of Saddam's WMDs

2.) They lied when they said that they wanted a diplomatic solution

3.) They lied when they said that Saddam made inspection impossible.

[notadmblnd]

16. I just heard Tweety say a few minutes ago...

during a conversation with Jim Mickelzuski(sp?) of NBC news; They were showing a map of the range Iran missles can reach, Jim said that of course, Israel is very interested in nipping Irans nuclear capabilities in the bud. And I swear to god my brain bounced off the side of my head and back when Tweety replied, that eliminating Irans program might be a job Israel has to do itself.