Do you think PNAC factored in Peek oil?

[Javaman]

It appears to me that the grand plans of PNAC have been upset by Peak oil arriving earlier than they had planned.

Any thoughts?

[MadHound]

1. No, not at all

The very reason that PNAC and the Bush administration pursued the invasion and occupation of Iraq is directly because of peak oil. They saw this coming long ago, and planned accordingly. Trouble is, their plans for dealing with peak oil didn't involve the transitioning from an oil economy to other energy resources. No, instead PNAC folks decided that the best way to deal with peak oil would be to seize as much of the remaining oil resources as possible. Iraq is the big kahuna when it comes to the large remaining oil pools, and thus it is why we're over there.

No, their plans weren't upset at all. Peak oil was indeed why they decided to invade Iraq six years ago or more.

[Bushwick Bill]

2. Bingo.

George W. Bush and Peak Oil: Beyond Incompetence
by Richard Heinberg

But what if Bush wasn’t able to understand what Bartlett was telling him? After all, Bartlett has a Ph.D. in physics; perhaps he was using words that were too big, or concepts too abstruse for our president to grasp.

Even if that were the case, we have evidence that Bush’s second-in-command, vice president Cheney, understands Peak Oil; given time, Cheney could surely make the concept comprehensible to his superior. In a speech in 1999 (while he was still CEO of Halliburton Corporation, the giant oil services company) to the Petroleum Institute in London, Cheney pointed out that

By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day.17

This is a fair statement of the depletion dilemma: 50 million barrels per day is almost five times the current output of Saudi Arabia.
http://www.energybulletin.net/14102.html

[BlueEyedSon]

3. There is a lot of Peak Oil denial on that side, so I will suggest this:

Regardless of whether you believe the evidence for peak oil, oil is what our economy (and our military) runs on. It is not free and it is not ubiquitous. And it is primarily in the Middle East.

You can understand the importance of oil and formulate policy based on that understanding, without having the foresight to grasp peak oil.

[MadHound]

5. There is a lot of "public" peak oil denial

However the powerbrokers, in their innermost thoughts, know that peak oil is a reality, and are proceeding accordingly. If you go to the PNAC site, www.newamericancentury.org, and read the document "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century " you can see that the concept of Peak Oil is written in large letters between each and every line. In addition, I'm currently reading Kevin Phillip's new book, American Theocracy, which among other things deals with the oil policy of this administration. He has some very telling facts that also show how Bushco's entire foreign policy is based on Peak Oil scenarios.

Sure, sure, the RW echo chamber and MSM poo-poos Peak Oil as another crazy conspiracy theory. They are trying to insure two things, one, that there isn't wide spread panic, and two, that people keep on buying that precious oil right up to the end. God forbid that the public finds out that there isn't much cheap oil left and start demanding alternatives, especially alternatives like solar or wind, which wouldn't rake in the profits for the oil companies that back Bush.

So yeah, there isn't much public recognition or discussion of Peak Oil, and unless something radical happens, there won't be. But you can bet your bottom dollar that each and every foreign policy move is predicated on the singular concept of Peak Oil.

And it is that sort of singular thinking that is going to be the ruin of this country.

[BlueEyedSon]

6. im just puttin it out there, i am a PO believer... devils advocate:

if they REALLY REALLY get it about peak oil, why aren't they scrambling for the commercial opportunities presented by alt energy, conservation, etc...?

[MadHound]

7. Who, the government?

Hell, the government is under complete control of the oil companies, and has been to a greater or lesser extent for the past thirty years. One reason that Carter got such bad press is that he dared to do the unthinkable, ask people to conserve energy.

As to why they don't change, hell, same reason why the British didn't get out of their coal economy until it was too late, it's still easy money, and they are short sighted. Oil companies don't pay for our armed forces, the men and machines that go to war, you and I do. But big oil certainly does benefit from them, and the scarcer the resource becomes, the higher the price they can charge, and thus set even more record profit numbers.

It is all about the money. Switching to wind and solar wouldn't make them as much money. Both forms of energy have pretty long life spans, twenty years or more. That does not put money into the pockets of oil companies. Neither does biodiesel or ethanol, that puts money into the pockets of farmers. Sure, they could rethink, retool, and remake themselves as alternative energy companies, but that costs a lot of money, which they are unwilling to spend, especially when they can get their pet government to go take over a sovereign country and pump oil from there.

And sadly, they're going to keep herding most of the American public down this path to destruction, and by the time the American public realizes what's going on, it will be too late. The only hope we have is in doing for ourselves. Each and every one of us start putting up solar panels, wind turbines, biodiesel, etc. Start using the market forces against the oil companies, then they'll change. But that will take a huge grassroots movement, and given the current climate it probably won't happen. But hey, when gas hits five or six bucks a gallon, people might be more willing to listen:shrug:

[BlueEyedSon]

8. 8^(

[MadHound]

9. And if you want even more of a bummer

Or just to read a great analysis of what is happening in this country, I do highly recommend Kevin Phillip's new book, American Theocracy. Talk about an unholy alliance, the Republican party, Big Oil, and the RW fundies:scared: Very good, very enlightening read.

And like I said, it is going to be up to the American people ourselves to get this country out of this mess. If you can afford it, I would suggest you either put up solar panels or a wind turbine or both. Neither technology is terribly cost prohibitive(2Kw of solar panels retails for around $15,000, a 3Kw wind turbine retails for around $12,000) and with lifespans of twenty to forty years, they will pay for themselves in the long run. And such add ons to your house will increase the resale value of it considerably.

[endarkenment]

4. Yuppers.

What continues to amaze me is that the whoremedia acts as if the PNAC project is some tinfoil hat conspiracy nonsense, when in fact it is the published pre-Bush administration plans for exactly what the Bush administration has set out to do, written in large part by the people populating key leadership positions in the Bush administration. I take it back. I am not amazed. I am infuriated. The media is complicit in the crimes that have been committed in our name.

[Cleita]

10. There's a lot they haven't factored in. If you read their

website, you become aware of the fact that they aren't shaping their ideology with facts, but making the facts fit their ideology. Anything that doesn't fit is discarded and ignored. That's why everything they have done so far has failed miserably because they weren't factoring in everything they should have.