Flame me if you must, but is an Iraq civil war such a bad thing?

[johnaries]

The current boundaries of Iraq were just arbitrarily decided by the French and British, or as Wikipedia says:

~Iraq was carved out of the Ottoman Empire by the French and British as agreed in the Sykes-Picot Agreement. On 11 November 1920 it became a League of Nations mandate under British control with the name "State of Iraq".

The British government laid out the political and constitutional framework for Iraq's government. As a consequence, the new political system suffered a lack of legitimacy. Britain imposed a Hāshimite monarchy on Iraq and defined the territorial limits of Iraq with little regard for natural frontiers and traditional tribal and ethnic settlements. Britain had to put down a major revolt against its policies between 1920 and 1922.~
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Iraq

Basically, the current Iraq came into being because some politicians a continent away who knew nothing about the people or the area drew some lines on a piece of paper and said "we'll call this one Iraq".

Ever since then, we've been trying to force round pegs into square holes.

Personally, I think the Kurds in the North should be allowed to re-form Kurdistan. The South may be absorbed by Iran, but there is a serious Democratic movement in Iran - but our polices in the Mid-East are undermining that movement.

The problem is the center section. Most of the oil is in the North and the South, although most of the "cultural centers" are in the center. But why not let the Iraqis work that out?

These are very proud, very strong-willed people. Frankly, when I read the book DUNE I can't help thinking that the Fremen were based on the people in this area. (seriously, read the book. Not any of the movies, not the sequels - read the original. Then read it again, it's actually better the second time! You'll be amazed at how much you missed the first time!)

I don't want to sound like a Saddam sympathizer, but once you learn more about the people and the make-up of Iraq the more you understand that the ONLY way to "hold together" so many groups of people that hate each other so violently is through strict authoritarian and violent means.

The alternative is to let the "nation" that is not a nation fall apart, and let the people actually decide their own fate, and decide their own boundaries.

To try to force stability on an instable system is folly. Better to let the instable system settle into it's own stability.

Of course, we are talking about an area that is one of the primary sources of oil here - but, if we switched our infrastructure to non-oil based energy sources (which we can do, TODAY!), it wouldn't be an issue.

OK, go ahead, flame me.

[EST]

1. No flames.

It doesn't matter much. The Iraqi civil war started some time ago and is going strong. It's just whether or not the Neo fascists can persuade America that it's in our interest to stay there while it continues.

[EST]

2. Oh, yeah.

Dune.
Although a science fiction fan for nearly fifty years, I must differ. I've jammed my head into all the Dune works, again and again, both the books and movies, from publishing onward. Like trying to read the bible, cover-to-cover or the gita, it just wouldn't take. I utterly detest the whole thing. I've spent at least a hundred hours, knowing the opinions of people I respect just couldn't be that far off the mark.
What I really know is that I will never again have to spend all that time trying to stay awake and make it all hang together--and that's it for me for Dune.

[johnaries]

5. Well, then, forget Dune.

But consider that the insurgents have been extremely effective against forces that were technolocigally superior. Consider that they have been very effective against forces with much better training.

The point I'm trying to make is that these are very innovative, resilient people. They also are very passionate about the "things" that bind them together, which are "things" that we don't understand but have pretended didn't make a difference simply because we didn't understand them.

Forget Dune, and tell me what else you don't like about my post.

[EST]

20. I love your post!

Just never had the opportunity to talk abour Dune, before. And I agree with you.
That desert was not always awash with black gold billions and those folks have had thousands of years to learn the toughest guerilla tactics and the most difficult task of living off the land when the average survivor type would die of exposure, starvation, or half a hundred things that await the unwary.
They don't particularly care for democratic ground rules and other trappings that the nuevo intelligensia think are some sort of universal human yearning.
I suspect they hope the most to be left the hell alone.

[EuroObserver]

24. Cradle of civilisation, origins of agriculture,

commerce and of cities. Land of the two rivers.

Water and fertile land always more important than oil.

Beware of the forthcoming water wars.

Also, be aware that most moslems in the world are Sunnis. But not in that region.

[AtomicKitten]

3. trying to prevent it is pointless

That is precisely why more learned leaders stayed the hell out.

[sweetheart]

4. Perhaps alaska should be returned to russia

Perhaps the borders of most all african nations
can be redrawn so as to "not" create unstable countries.

Perhaps Poland should get back its territory.
Konigsburg should be returned to germany.
Diego Garcia should be returned to its people.

If we are to accept the argument that sovereign borders are merely
arbitrary grazing fences, and not serious nation states, it is easy
to make the case for most nations on earth re-drawing their borders
more sensibly.

I do believe the United states should support only political forces
that endorse womens equality and modern civil rights. Whatever faction
this should be, we should be aligned with it, and publically drive a more
soft-regime change towards respecting civil rights across the entire region
of south and east asia. The womens repression of a billion persons living
in conditions western women would find utterly servile, japan, china, india
and the load of patriarchal anti-feminist nations needs a kick in the pants,
once we can drop this stupid terrorism farcical expensive witch hunt/grand theft.

[johnaries]

7. I'm disappointed. A better argument would have been

"perhaps the US should have let the Confederate States seceed?"

As far as the US only "supporting" political forces that support Human Rights - yes, I could not agree more. But, there is a big difference between supporting Human Rights and trying to force our World View on the rest of the world.

Sometimes, the hardest thing to do is to "step back" and allow events to take their natural course.

But, by trying to force the issue, we often make the situation worse than better. I think Iraq is a perfect example.

I think there are better ways to support Women's Rights and other Human Rights issues in Iraq than trying to force other issues down their throats.

I just read about "Honor" killings in Germany. A man killed his "adulterous" step-daughter, and slit the throats of his other daughters "just in case." This is a separate issue. Let's not confuse them. That's what the RW'ers do.

[sweetheart]

28. military force is a last resort

It has become a first resort in the hands of bush, and that itself is the crime.
As far as military force in iraq goes, only the mongols did a worse job of
nationbuilding after sacking bagdhad.

Gosh, would that the place to step back is perhaps not to give the Rumsfeld
any more trillions to lose.

[xchrom]

9. the problem is whether the borders stay or go

the borders as they were created have born problems -- violent problems.

problems of genocide.

and those problems may have been born from interrupting a peoples quest for self determination -- i.e. the kurds the former yugoslavia, etc.

there are consequences from unthinking -- uncaring unilateral decison making for a group of people who don't want it.

[Warren Stupidity]

26. If there were a sizable russian population in alaska

you would have a point. The colonial boundaries of african nations are indeed a problem, and over time more rational national boundaries will develop.

"If we are to accept the argument that sovereign borders are merely
arbitrary grazing fences, and not serious nation states, it is easy
to make the case for most nations on earth re-drawing their borders
more sensibly."

The problem with the core of your argument is that it is simplistic. First - all borders are arbitrary except when they are geological. I think you meant that nations may not be arbitrary. The key is 'may'. Some nations are indeed arbitrary. Iraq, for example, as the OP stated, is a fiction created by the British 86 years ago that has never congealed as a nation, except under the brutal reign of Saddam. In many respects Iraq is quite similar to Yugoslavia - an artificial conglomeration of fiercely ethnic regions put together by committee and held together by a strongman. When Tito, or Saddam, exits the picture the nation fails and divides into its natural sectarian constituent parts. The breakdown of Yugoslavia was inevitable, what was not inevitable was the hideous slaughter that went with it. Likewise, the breakdown of Iraq is a fact, the Kurds are already there, the sunnis want nothing to do with the shiites and the shiites do not intend to give up their control of the central government. Our occupation army holds the fictional nation together by killing the people of the region in large numbers - we do it by brute force. We have replace Saddam and his Baath party as the strongman of Iraq. When we finally bug out the collapse will follow.

"I do believe the United states should support only political forces
that endorse womens equality and modern civil rights. Whatever faction
this should be, we should be aligned with it, and publically drive a more
soft-regime change towards respecting civil rights across the entire region
of south and east asia."

But we do nothing of the sort. Our motivation is access to oil, not some Wilsonian bullshit of freedom and democracy enforced by brutality. I know you mean well in that paragraph - I understand that you are espousing what ought to be, not what is. However, I think it is time that we on the progressive side of things start to recognize that we cannot, either softly or by gunpoint, dictate how other people should live, and that more importantly our good intentions are subverted by the crass imperialist and mercantilist ambitions of our elites and transformed into a cover story for their criminal behavior.

Maybe after we put our own house in order, maybe after we retreat from imperial hegemony as national policy, maybe after we start to disband our bloated imperial military forces and worldwide bases, maybe then we can figure out how to act as an agent for positive change in the world.

[sweetheart]

27. softly or at gunpoint

We cannot retreat from the ground of women's equality.
It means we draw a world map where there are slave-states and
free states, still today, just "nation" states.

Encouraging iraq's dissolution is also encouraging the
similar dissolution of jordan, syria and turkey, heck, lets toss in pakistan
and afganistan if we're gonna sort out the nations-across-tribals problem
or what about the caucus? Several world nations are today held together by
military force from the center, strongman if you will. Russia, china, india,
pakistan, afganistan, turkey, saudi and the arab states.

The problem with iraq is that all around in those nearby states, the central
military authority cringes at the precedent of an iraqi-kurdistan. I'm all for
the self determination of a poeple... and that wilsonian bullshit.. but this
kurd thing is read as the caucus by the russians, the north by the afganis,
the northwest in pakistan, tibet and x... western china. India sees nagaland
and kashmir, turkey sees the PKK east... all of them are using inappropriate
force to create a non-consensual nation, and if we are to allow the concept to
iraq, then lets get printing with the other cases.

When i said "softly", i mean economically and socially, not militarily. I agree
with your statements on telling other people how to live and all. Just our values
do include freedom and liberty, the real-deal and would we deny ANY peoples the
right to have likewise.

[rman]

6. I'm all in favor of the Kurds getting Kurdistan,

but preferably not by means of civil war.

[johnaries]

10. Well, me either. And it looks like they are trying to avoid it,

probably for the first time in the history of Iraq!

But, it looks to me like the choices are rather limited. Unless we install another ruthless dictator that uses force and fear to bring all the various combative factions to heel.

I would love it if they could unite Iraq under compromise - but I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

[xchrom]

8. a civil war can be part of the growing pains of a culture.

i'm not trying to sound benign about -- but america would not have appreciated wholesale interference from britain in our civil war -- the little they were involved was bad enough.

the consequent loss of life is deplorable -- but perhaps best for a lasting peace.

at any rate -- what we have to understand is that people have right to find their path to self determination.
we can try to moderate the worst of peoples behavior -- but we are not the universal fix it pill.

[johnaries]

12. Sadly, I agree with you.

Although I wish America had a magical wand that we could wave, I think you summed it up perfectly:

"people have right to find their path to self determination.
we can try to moderate the worst of peoples behavior -- but we are not the universal fix it pill."

Sad, but SO true. I may make that my new signature! Do you mind?

[xchrom]

13. i'm soo flattered!

you may indeed.

:blush:

[johnaries]

14. Thanks! It's just such a perfect punch in the eye to PNAC!

:toast:

[xchrom]

16. lol -- mostly i'm just a catankerous big mouth --

now i'm a quoted cantakerous big mouth.

you set my 06 off just right.

[Lexingtonian]

11. yes and no

Iraq is not condemned to be a totalitarian-run, violence-filled entity or set of entities forever.

The presently brewing civil war is the retribution/exhaustion phase of the history of oppression and violence between the groups involved. The Sunni/Shia problem dates back to when the desert Arab peoples conquered Mesopotamia, the Kurd problem is as old or older. I refuse to call the present condition and war yet to break out fully good or right, yet neither does it seem possible to prevent it.

At some point much or most of the Middle East will, like Europe and the Americas, begin to diminish national borders. If you look any historical atlas, borders have always been in some fashion arbitrarily and abusively placed, dissimilar peoples clustered and related peoples broken apart, to enable empires. The solution in the long term is the vanishing of borders of the kind entirely as relics of feudalism and the Agrarian/Industrial Age.

I thought Dune was modelled on the inland southern and western coast cultures of Arabia, from Petra (with all the cisterns and underground rock dwellings and such) to Mecca to Aden to Oman. The faux Arabic/Hebrew really marred the book for me, though, and the water story line was hard for me to take seriously- though the tale overall was rather good.

[johnaries]

17. Some excellent points, Although I'd like to point out

(to everyone, not just you) that I didn't necessarily say that Iraqi Civil War was a "good" thing, just wondering if it was really that "bad".

You make an excellent point in that borders change a great deal over time. You also make a great point here: "I refuse to call the present condition and war yet to break out fully good or right, yet neither does it seem possible to prevent it."

In any event, it seems to me that our best course of action is to allow events to happen to their most logical conclusion and stop meddling and redeploy our troops as Murtha suggested.

[Mutley]

15. I think things have to get worse in Iraq before they'll get better.

A lot of people are waking up to what a mess this war is, but not enough. Unfortunately, things have to get a lot uglier before the rest of America will wake up. A civil war would probably accomplish that; show people that we're hardly doing a damn bit of good over there. Getting life-saving surgery for a dying baby -- a wonderful thing -- but not worth thousands and thousands of lives.

[johnaries]

18. OK! I'm sorry I brought up DUNE!

The parallel I was trying to make was that in the book, The Emperor's elite military force who were the best trained, best equiped, and most feared mercenaries in the known universe (PNAC's wet dream)were easily defeated by an indigenous people who had been hardened from birth as a matter of survival, knew how to use the local environmental resources to their advantage, and were driven by religious fervor (is it starting to sound familiar now?).

Just pretend I never mentioned DUNE and consider the rest of the post.

But, if you really hated DUNE before, perhaps you should try it again. Just remember that it has multiple layers, and think about it as it applies GLOBALLY, not locally. Compare the Merchants Guild to the WTO. Think of the various "families" as multi-national corporations. Think of the Bene Gessirit as Fundies gone wild.

Seriously, try reading it again. I'll bet after experiencing the past 6 years it will have a whole new meaning to you.

[EST]

21. teehee

[Jose Diablo]

19. The problem is not the Iraqi people

The problem is external forces to Iraq.

Within Iraq, what you say in right on. If they have little 'common interest' as a people, then it would be better if it wasn't a single nation.

The real problem is here in the USA. It is the oil. What you say about alternative sources of energy is not exactly true. There are alternatives, but it would take time to build the infrastructure. However, thats not really the issue.

The real issue is the oil power center within the USA that controls our government.If you need an example of how power centers control the government, just look at Fruit/Sugar interests and how they have effectively forced their own views on how our government handles relations with Central/South American nations. Look how the CIA ran and continues to run profit centers moving dope to get money to fight wars in Central/South America. Implement policies that are little more than what we would view protection rackets in any of our larger cities. Protecting American corporate interests over the interests of the people of democratically elected governments in Central/South American nations.

Our country is not even a democratic nation anymore with the vote fraud. Our country is effectively a plutocracy with an in placed propaganda machine to keep people ignorant of the real nature of our nation.

When our supposedly elected officials had JFK assassinated, and then smothered justice for that murder, that should have been a tip-off that all is not well in Gotham. But the media even then went along with the game plan and kept people in the dark.

I agree with what you say. Let the Iraqi people themselves decide the fate of their country. I personally think they would be better off as a single nation, but thats not my call or Washington's. As for the 'oil interests'? Let's nationalize the oil companies and give the power centers the boot. Screw them.

I can remember way back into the 60's how these companies held production levels to a lower level on natural gas to keep home heating profits high, even back then. Plus, these same interests received 'oil depletion' tax right-offs that effectively transfered wealth from the people to their own bank accounts, all the while capping productive gas wells just to keep supplies down and profit up. These are the real criminals in our world. They steal the worlds resources them use the propaganda machine to keep us in the dark about what they are doing. Manipulating us into sacrificing our sons and daughters to fight and die to protect the selfish motives of the wealthy and powerful. There needs to be civil war right here, in the USA, if we truly want peace in this world.

The problem is here, not over there.

[B Calm]

22. The problem is here, not over there... WELL SAID!!

[zippy890]

29. NOW we're talking - 'As for the oil interests? Lets nationalize

the oil companies and give the power centers the boot'

Now we are getting somewhere in this discussion!
:thumbsup:

[rfkrfk]

23. only stupid Americans, believe the 'Iraqis are a people' fairy tale

C'mon folks, grow up.
Iraq was named for a line of mountains, in the 1920s.

[PATRICK]

25. War is always a destructive option

The Czechs allowed a peaceful 'split" of their two ethnic regions, which civilized result the US debacle makes nearly impossible to dream of in Iraq. In the end night be the same without all the killing and the threat of the vulture multinationals and US Empire sifting the ashes for oil. Kurds take their region, under wary disapproval from Turkey and Iran. The Shiites have plenty(for now) to ally themselves with Iran. That leaves out the Sunni Arabs we attacked specifically and cannot pacify. They have gone from top dogs in the phony oil state to the new Palestinians, but unlike the Palestinians shepherds cannot be easily cowed into becoming a new oppressed minority or exiles.

Even the modest, corrupted puppet Iraqi government with its tangled strings realizes and tries to deal with this without the idiot jingoism of the US occupiers. What was needed was a serious and accepted representation that would hammer out the problem. We are so far from trying to avoid this tragedy as to have people now arguing about the inevitability and playing out of another eruption of evil, which the majority of all Iraqis and the world does not want.

Our arguing about solutions has no effect on the situation than vetting the Super Bowl. One real change would be to take down and apart(peacefully, legally) the current renegade US regime and take more steps thus to get global help for the ethnic trap in which the West placed the region's oil-cursed inhabitants. As usual the best way to make peace is to "make it begin with me" notably in our own surveiled back yard.

[Lefty48197]

30. It's inevitable.

We can't put an end to ancient rivalries.