Bird flu 'could take 142m lives'!!!!

[AGENDA21]

SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- As many as 142 million people around the world could die if bird flu turns into a "worst case" influenza pandemic, according to a sobering new study of its possible consequences.

And global economic losses could run to $4.4 trillion -- the equivalent of wiping out the Japanese economy's annual output.

The study, prepared for the Sydney, Australia-based Lowy Institute think tank, says there are "enormous uncertainties" about whether a flu pandemic might happen, and where and when it might happen first.

snip...

In the worst scenario, it said the death toll could reach 28.4 million in China, 24 million in India, 11.4 million in Indonesia, 4.1 million in the Philippines, 2.1 million in Japan, 2.0 million in the United States and 5.6 million in Europe. In the world's least developed countries, the toll could top 33 million.

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/02/15/birdflu.cost/

[DoYouEverWonder]

1. And who is the Lowry Institute

and since when did they become medical experts?

Sounds like more fear mongering for their American friends and I thought we had gotten past Bird Flu Fear Season.

[greekspeak]

2. Surely you jest...the American press is mongering fear?

Color me suprised. :sarcasm:

[Botany]

3. and 100%

of the people born will die

[Warpy]

4. Coulda, shoulda. Panic is premature

although chicken may be off the menu until the disease has run its course in birds.

Two species jumps generally occur before a human pandemic occurs: first, from birds to swine. Domestic pigs have gotten sick, but there is no documented transmission between swine, so that hasn't happened yet. Second, the jump from swine to humans occurs. People have gotten sick from domestic fowl and there are a couple of cases where human to human transmission probably occurred, but it's not efficient transmission so the species jump to us hasn't occurred.

The other thing that often happens with each strain of flu is that as it mutates to jump species, it often attenuates, meaning it becomes less deadly.

All this is sheer supposition at this point and certainly no cause for alarm in anyone but poultry workers, who are at risk in most of the world and will be at risk in the western hemisphere within 6 months as migrating birds carry it here. Some factory farms will likely face devastating losses if the disease is transmitted to domestic fowl being raised in crowded, factory conditions.

H5N1 is certainly a potential threat and should be watched closely. However, it's not quite time to hit that panic button and start wearing masks and gloves to go out in public.

[Swamp Rat]

5. I'm MUCH more scared if Dickhead Cheney than bird flu!

:D

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. Or the next hurricane or earthquake

God forbid another major city gets hit, especially with FEMA in a shambles right now.

[Mr.Green93]

6. With overpopulation destroying the planet

Why is this loss regrettable?

[DoYouEverWonder]

8. Maybe we should promote sensible and affordable

means of birth control instead? Massive die offs are no fun and we have the ways and means to prevent them. We just need the will.

[BushOut06]

9. It is a big concern, but this media frenzy is way out of proportion

I was reading a "respectable" medical article about the bird flu several months ago (sorry, I don't remember who or where it was). Basically they examined what would likely happen if the bird flu mutated into an easily communicable human form.

The important thing to keep in mind is that all these doomsday scenarios assume the virus would maintain its lethal potency after mutating. Historically, that just doesn't happen. Typically, when a virus undergoes such a radical mutation, it loses a lot of its lethality. It would still be a formidable virus and kill millions of people (but it's also important to remember that the "ordinary" flu kills millions of people worldwide).

[Lerkfish]

10. fallout from Bush's planned nuclear attack and resulting global thermo

nuclear war could tak 5 billion lives!! we have to stop him soon! Im series!!! this is HUGH!

[ProfessorGAC]

11. My Prediction: Breathing Will Cost 10 Billion People Their Lives

See, if you're breathing, you're alive. If you're alive, that will only lead to death. Are we scared enough now?
The Professor

[leesa]

12. Are we up to 100 lives yet?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Some of the people in this thread should do some homework....

...on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. The 1918 flu had a mortality rate of between 2.5% and 5% of all of those infected, and killed about 40-50 million people worldwide. Back then, the world population was about 1.8 billion, and most of the people lived in rural areas. Transmission of the disease around the world was by ships and trains, the primary modes of international travel in 1918.

The most recent manifestation of Avian Flu has a mortality rate of about 50%. Most of today's world population of 6.4 billion people live in urban communities.

Thankfully, Avian Flu has not yet emerged in a variant that is capable of easy human-to-human transmission. Once that happens, the spread of the disease will be explosive. The primary modes of international travel today are the airplane, automobile, ship, and train.

You don't have to be a "fear-monger" to be able to understand why scientists involved in infectious diseases are VERY concerned about Avian Flu.

[rman]

14. screw the self-appointed "experts"

that's all