Looks like it's up to Montana:

[Phredicles]

http://sos.mt.gov/ELB/archives/2006/elections/general/ussenate/index.asp

With 209,000 votes counted,

Tester 108,000
Burns 96,000

This is a narrowing of about 5,000 from what the margin had been for the past hour or so. C'mon Tester!

[montana500]

1. "As Montana goes, so goes the nation" - Keith Olbermann

We will see...right?

[Phredicles]

2. And now with just under 220,000 in, Tester's up 113,000-100,000

I'm embarrassed to have to ask this, but how many people live in Montana? And how many registered voters are there?

[keithjx]

4. I was just posting....

Average votes cast over the last 5 non-presidential elections was about 338K....

http://sos.mt.gov/ELB/Voter_Turnout.asp

KJ

[codjh9]

7. Somewhere between 900,000 - 1,000,000 or so live there, I believe

[kenny blankenship]

3. When can we expect a projected winner?

[darkism]

5. 638,474 registered voters, 456,096 votes cast in 2004

http://www.sos.mt.gov/ELB/archives/2004/2004-GenState.pdf

[Scooter24]

6. Magical number is 240,000...

that's the number of total votes expected to be cast according to most analysts.

[Bucky]

8. doing some quick algebra... Out of the 31,000 votes left to count, Tester needs 3000+ to win

IOW, Burns needs to win about 90% of the still uncounted votes to pull this one out.

[originalpckelly]

9. I went through and I have done a short analysis...

In the counties which went for Bush, and have yet to report in at all, they were only 71% or lower for Bush in 2004. So that means that it is lower than your number.

In most places around Montana it looks like Tester is leading. Tester even has a slight 51% lead in Yellowstone county a super-Republican district which went for Bush with 61.71% of the vote.

That is an 11% point difference between 2004 and now.

So this looks very good for Tester.

[darkism]

10. 279,257 have already been counted... n/t

[Barrett808]

11. TPM has Tester leading Burns, 50% to 45% with 74% of precincts in

http://www.tpmcafe.com/race/overview