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1. early voters 2. absentee voters 3. election day voters 4. non-voters
I am having scond thoughts about 2 of those categories.
If you remove the "non"s from the mix, we have 3/4 of the people, possibly having their "votes" known well in advance of the actual election day..
Of course people who register "I" could "pre-vote" too, but my guess is that they are the voters who are less than willing to tell their party, and they may be less inclined to rush out to vote in early voting.
If "election day" is so sacred, why are more and more states turning the whole thing into voting "season" or voting "month"..
Remember how detail-oriented republicans are, and how thorough their databases are.
If 1/2 of the categories vote early, 1/4 are registered, but do not vote, that only leaves 1/4 of the rest to quibble over.
Remember Florida? The early voting was supposed to skew 3-1 for Kerry, and it was all over the media, so of course it was a gigantic heads-up to the repubes.
My guess too, is that people who vote early are only too eager to tell WHO they voted for, so naturally the people who AREN'T getting early votes know just whom to target..and they have ample time to do it.
It kind of reminds me of poker where all the cards are dealt face-up..and all at once.. No bluffs and probably not much betting would go on.
of course no one knows for "sure' that those early voting republicans voted for "their guy", but I think it's responsible for all the reversing polls we are seeing.
In 2 weeks we have gone from "landslide, blowout, rout, massacre, takeover" to "too close to call, closing, neck and neck, tied, dead heat,etc).."
Add in the buggy machines,voter intimidation on election day, purge lists, and all the other contingencies, and we have a wild roller coaster ride ahead of us, when we all thought we might be on the Sky-gondola...
Nails bitten, fingers crossed, but re-thinking early voting, here in CA.
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