Two posts on the Washinton Monthly's "Showdown 06" blog are splashing a little cold water on the victory talk I'm seeing around DU. Sobering thoughts for us pessimists to grouse about until Tuesday night. While no one is saying "landslide", much less "realignment", the fact is that we're psyching ourselves up for a big win and two poster at Showdown '06 are offering a reality check.
WM editor in chief
Paul Glastris spoke with an anonymous pollster who's says there's
"real doubts that a big Democratic 'wave' is about to hit. He’s '95 percent sure,' he says, that Democrats will take the House, probably by a five to ten seat margin. But he just 'doesn’t see a pattern' to those expected pickups that would suggest the kind of broad change in the public’s mood that would lead to the 30-to-50 seat pickup that some are talking about... A real anti-incumbent, anti-GOP wave, he says, would sweep out some otherwise strong officeholders and sweep in some weaker challengers. But he doesn’t see signs of that..."
Writer
Nick Penniman is saying we as a party haven't been radical enough, given the anticorruption mood the country seems to be in.
"Ever since Jack Abramoff became a household name, there’s been an ongoing debate in Washington about whether or not the Democrats could make corruption a useful electoral issue...
(C)lubbing the GOP with corruption is incredibly effective. Jeffery Birnbaum and Jonathan Weisman at the Washington Post assert that the scandals are cutting hard against the Republicans in 15 races. How many more could be in play? Why haven’t the Democrats been on more of a rampage?...
So, somewhere in the fog of DC consensus building, the decision was made to “message” against corruption but not run hard against as true reformers. The way Gingrich did against the Democrats in 1994. Or, more appropriately, the way progressives did 100 years ago, during the last Gilded Age. "
Both are good reads, but the Penniman is something to bookmark and think about when time comes to start nagging our new crop of committee chairpersons for real reform in the spring.