Breaking Point: Virginia GOP just joined OH, NY, IN and FL on the implosion meter

[Grebrook]

The last FOUR polls taken out in Virginia now show Jim Webb leading in the race for the Senate.

Rasmussen: 51%-46%
CNN: 50%-46%
Garin Hart Yang (D): 47%-43%
Zogby: 51%-47%

I consider Zogby to be a completely unreliable pollster, and I'm naturally skeptical of internal polling, but clearly CNN and Rasmussen backing both up seem to indicate a trend.

Now, what is important to consider about this race is clearly that Virginia politics turn in the last two weeks of the campaign, as was evident last year when Kilgore's ads backfired and gave Kaine the governorship. What it is also important to consider is that it is very unlikely that Democrats will be cross-voting for Republican House members down-ballot if they're going to vote out a popular former governor. Because of the demographic changes occuring in Virginia and the continual growth of Northern Virginia, GOP house incumbents are in serious trouble, largely because newcomers do not have the respect for incumbents in their new places of residence as they did for their old one. Virginia's rapid growth is endangering the old GOP infrastructure.

Virginia has 11 House Seats, 8 are held by Republicans, and while Virginia is gerrymandered to a small degree like many states, it is no way measurable to places like Florida, Ohio, Texas or Massachusetts, it's simply that voters have traditionally cross-voted for Republicans down-ballot. Now, it appears, no more. If George Allen, a former governor, goes down, make no mistake, as many as 2-3 house incumbents may go with him. The latest polling shows (R) Thelma Drake losing to her Democratic challenger by 5 points.

So let's be clear about this. If Virginia goes, the Republicans may still hold the Senate 50-50, but there is no chance they will hold the House of Representatives, because Thelma Drake is not a Republican Dems were really counting on defeating until this point. Republicans have scrambled to fight off Dems in Ohio, New York, Connecticut, Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Indiana. If they take losses in Virginia, there's no real chance they'll hold the House. They simply can't afford it. The bad news is already spreading. George Allen is a character that is truly deserving of being knocked off. So far we've been knocking off people they don't care about. Lincoln Chaffee (who they hate), Conrad Burns (unfamiliar), Mike DeWine (unfamiliar and unfavorable to many Reps). But knocking off Rick Santorum and George Allen is a big fat slap in the face. Two of their heroes. Rush Limbaugh personally said Allen was his initial pick for president in 08.

Let's kick some dirt in the GOP's face, shall we?

[and-justice-for-all]

1. Voting DEM across the board...nt

[Parisle]

2. Bravo from a Virginian

---- We are always hearing about how advance polling and actual voting might not match up in cases where race is a factor, since voters can say one thing in a poll, and do something different once in the privacy of the voting booth. Fair enough. Might not that same reasoning apply to the military vote, as well? Virginia is a huge military state, and servicemen are nominally expected to support the warlike administration, right? And while they might poll accordingly, it is hard to believe that there would not be many servicemen who would likewise vote anti-Bush once they got in the private voting booth. That old "saluting the uniform" business is getting old.

[Clark2008]

3. Any news on Tennessee?

I can't believe all the race-baiting is working. That bites.

[Gin]

4. we are voting with touch screens this time......I am hesitant to

be excited.

[Hav]

5. .

from http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Senate Polls
Of the four Senate polls today, two are significant. Yesterday we had a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey showing incumenbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) ahead of Tom Kean, Jr. (R) by 6%. Today we have one from Rasmussen showing him 5% ahead. Maybe the RNC knew something when they decided to put $5 million into this race. So far, no results, though.


The other key Senate poll today is Virginia, where Jim Webb (D) has taken a tiny lead over incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA). Nevertheless it is still a statistical tie.



He has Webb leading 48-46!
Even if it's a tie, it's still great as I can't remember Webb ever leading. Wow, could he really win it? It would be too sweet to see Macaca-boy getting kicked out.

[Grebrook]

6. Another Connecticut poll has Nancy Johnson losing! This is great! I think the Dems may be picking

up more steam in different races. That's the third poll in a week showing Johnson behind. Connecticut could be a blowout for the Democrats.

[ContraBass Black]

7. Save that statement for when the House of Delegates and the State Senate

Go majority Democratic.

[kstewart33]

8. Beg to differ.

Zogby is one of the best pollsters out there making the Webb results and the Lamont results GREAT news.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. All The Other Pollsters Have Sherrod Brown Up By Double Digits

Zogby has the race a pickem and up by two...


All the other pollsters have Bob Casey from ten to sixteen points...

Zogby has him up by nine...


He still does some telephone polls but his internet polls are beyond stupid... Once you poll a self selected group you're throwing random sampling out the window...

[Grebrook]

11. I agree, Zogby is just a really bad pollster, he always shows races tighter than they really are

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Zogby Will Break Your Heart

His polls are all over the place...

And his internet polling he does for thw WSJ is beyond stupid...


People sign up to be polled at the beginning of the election season and then he polls the same people during the course of the campaign...

I can't believe a credible organiztion would pay for that...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. "I consider Zogby to be a completely unreliable pollster, "

That's because he:

-builds too many assumptions in his polls

-relies too much on internet polls