It's Worth Repeating: Ds Will Take 27 House Seats; 8 Senate

[stopbush]

That was my prediction last week. The Ds are now pulling away from the Rs across the board.

BTW - I've heard pundits go even higher on the House number.

What do you think?

[durrrty libby]

1. I'll take it

[0rganism]

2. I like it, I like it a lot

Of course, I'd like 50 house seats and 15 senate seats even more. Dare we hope?

[aquart]

3. I can live with this.

I may be greedy, but never as greedy as a Republican.

[mconvente]

4. I like the house number, I'm not sure about Senate

Social desirability bias does lead voters to claim they will vote for a black candidate but then not do it (ie - Ford in Tennessee). I think we think the stem cell issue can get us the win in Missouri, and VA. is looking better, but you never know. I'm thinking more like 6 (which includes RINO Lieberman, but the latest numbers are a bit more encouraging, so Lamont could pull it off). I'm thinking we take more in the house though.

That said, I'd love 8 (or even more) Senate seats!

[Jack Rabbit]

5. That sounds about right

!!

[napi21]

6. OH MY, I can only hope and pray you're right!

O
ve read a few things on Du that haven't come to pass yet. If they do, you could be underestimating the numbers!

My fingers, legs and toes are crossed until next Wed!!!!!

[LaPera]

7. I'm cautiously waiting...Rove, republican voting machines and all...We must

get Dems out to vote...much work to be done... Can't let up!

[opihimoimoi]

8. Yup, keep up the INTENSITY....never let victory slip from our grasp

[wake.up.america]

11. Full court Press!!! Afterwards, a huge broom to sweep out corruption!

[opihimoimoi]

17. Might need them Vacums you see on TV. LOL :o)

[C_U_L8R]

9. Rove is Over

kaput

[wake.up.america]

12. Rove is already planning for 2008 believe me.

[longship]

13. What? From jail?

I don't think so. I think Rove is dead meat along with Chimp, Crashcart, Rummy, and the rest of these clowns. If what looks like is going to happen next week happens next week, the GOP is going to be in *serious* trouble as a political party. We're talking trouble which will take them a decade or more to regroup.

They are going to be literally thrown out of office next Tuesday.

[wake.up.america]

16. I hope you are correct. Are you saying the US has a new mind set, that...

the US electorate for the most part, has become more thoughtful?

[GreenTea]

23. Paraguay!

[kestrel91316]

26. Paraguay is still on Planet Earth. They won't be out of reach of anyone

who is truly determined to get them.

And Paraguay could be willing to hand them over if the correct, ahem, pressure were applied, lol.

[kestrel91316]

24. When his employers and money sources all wind up in PRISON,

Rove can plot and scheme all he wants. Nothing will happen. He will be left to dream his life away, if he's not in prison himself.

[longship]

10. My take

I've posted a lot about this in My Journal including my reasons for my predictions.

Here's a summary:

1. House by 35, but it could be fifty or more. Senate by seven or eight, depending only on AZ.

2. We're going to get it all because the electorate is *ultra* pissed off at this regime, and their party. The voters *know* what's been happening the past six years. None of ChimpCo's tricks are working any more. The voters *know* that they've been lied to for six years. The voters might not be fast, but they aren't stupid.

3. Electoral shenanigans are not going to be an issue because there are 70-80 seats in play. This is just too damned much risk for widespread rigging. With races all over the country in play the voting problems will be sporadic, isolated, and ineffective.

4. Individual candidate polls are not to be trusted. There are too damned many outliers. The pollsters are using faulty models and assumptions from previous elections which are not going to hold this time. Poll trends and poll accumulations across multiple candidates are telling the real story this time. The GOP is in huge trouble and they know it. Pollsters may get around to changing things this week. Look for the number of outliers to decrease.

5. ChimpCo is going to lie, lie, lie about the election and their chances. They know the truth but they will *never* say it. Ignore them.

6. I didnt' think that the pundits were going to predict how big this is going to be. With all the numbers so far out of wack, I thought that they'd stick with safe predictions. I may have been wrong. A couple of them are already saying that this could be *very* big (Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg).

Watch as the undecideds start committing to a candidate this next week. I think that's what happened in the Webb/Allen race in today's poll releases. They are all showing Webb in a majority. I think that this may be real. If so, Macaca is *NOT* going to recover. Then, we need only one more Senate seat in TN and MO to get the majority. I think we'll get both of those as well.

[KharmaTrain]

19. Turn Out In Mid-Terms Is Fickle

While I hope your predictions are true, I don't like to count chickens in such a volitile year and one where we're not dealing with a national election, but individual elections where there's a national theme but lots of over-riding local ones that can affect the outcome.

In Illinois, there's a stinko of a governor's race that could keep a lot of people away from the polls...especially Democrats. All the sliming and negative advertising has some saying "A pox on both your houses" and could supress enough votes in some districts that could make the difference in two house races. Democrats are having to work extra hard to keep people interested in the election and then hope they get to the polls. This last month seems like a year, surely the last week will feel like a month...and there's no race assured. Repugnicans are going through similar problems...and this bodes well in many races, but one can't things for granted.

People here were ready to do the happy dance for Francine Busby last spring and couldn't figure out how Billbray beat her. It was Busbee didn't get her vote out...people in the district weren't contacted and the GOTV effort was poorly run. All the Repugnican scandal...and this was Duke Cunningham's seat right after he pleaded guilty...wasn't enough to give the seat to Busbee and the GOOP machine wanted that election more and won it.

And that's what it boils down to...who really wants this election. In many areas, Democrats have that chip on their shoulder...but there are still plenty of pockets where the GOOP ground game and church buses will crank up one more time and tip balances in close races. I sure hope I'm wrong on this, but the efforts to whip up the base and all but wheel them into a polling place has been the GOOP focus for the past month. The thought is that while they may only represent 30% of the people, if those are 50% or more of those who show up and vote, they win.

[oasis]

21. Your "math" is way out ahead of Rove's "math". Well done.

:thumbsup:

[spag68]

14. Obviously

I hope you are right, but I'll take anything over 15. The senate is a much tougher nut to crack. I hope for it anyway.

[arcos]

15. AZ as number 8? nt

[Initech]

18. How many are needed to take back both the house and the senate?

I dont remember the exact numbers.

[saltpoint]

20. Eight Senate seats? Sounds pretty good to me. I'm in.

[upi402]

22. Carville on Larry King said 3 in the Senate

maybe 4.

Mama sans purple sweater was depresseing, btw.

[BlooInBloo]

25. I like it, but Kos says differently - much differently....

... and while I *like* your numbers, I am forced to recall that DUers *liked* what Truthout/Leopold had to say.

*Liking* the thought of it isn't enough.


EDIT: Not to kill the enthusiasm. Fucking MAKE me wrong everyone and the OP right - that'd be the best Nov 7th EVER for me!