What is the chance of Dem's taking both houses?

[SlipperySlope]

Could anybody point me toward an analysis of how likely it is for the Dem's to take both houses. I'm not looking for any kind of "cheer-leading" or "if we work hard we can do it" sort of stuff, but instead something more analytical. Ideally that shows all the seats that are up for grabs, and tracks recent polls.

Anyone?

[antiimperialist]

1. Slim chance

The senate is almost impossible to take over, since we would have to win all the close races, which is unlikely.

[SammyWinstonJack]

6. Really?

:eyes:

[William Seger]

10. Um....

If it's so "unlikely" and "almost impossible," why are they close?

[SammyWinstonJack]

15. !

:thumbsup:

[Xenotime]

16. Great point. I think we will come out on top.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Here

www.intrade.com

[pwb]

5. good,... blue states may do it on their own

voting out all red representatives, they do not represent the people back home when they vote with bush. blue state republicans are even pissed. red states don't miss out on this revolution.. join us vote blue...

[SlipperySlope]

8. Interesting site...

[Eric J in MN]

3. MO, TN, OH, and VA are all close.

www.electoral-vote.com

Also, a 50-50 tie in Senate seats means the Republicans are in charge (whichever party contols the White House controls the Senate when it's 50-50.)

[INdemo]

13. Ohio close? no..Repukes are pulling their funding form there

If we take MO then one out of two (TN or VA) we win control

[Eric J in MN]

19. Republicans will use Voter ID rules to steal Ohio.

From
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/16/121554/28

"If a person doesn't have a current driver's license with an address that matches their voting registration, they are in for a world of trouble come election day. In order to avoid processing thousands of provisional ballots, the BOE wants Precinct Election Officials to send people home to get their ID, or bring back a utility bill or bank statement to prove their legal address. If you don't drive, if you don't get a paycheck with an address on it or your utility bills aren't in your name, you may be out of luck. Teen voters will have trouble providing legal ID, as will poor voters, unemployed voters, people who rent their homes, etc. To add to this mess, women who have changed their name because of marriage are now required to cast a provisional ballot if there's a variance between their voting registration and their legal ID, when previously a simple Name Change Form would have been sufficient to vote a regular ballot.

The new state Voter ID law is so flawed that the BOE has determined that these documents are NOT acceptable ID to vote, typically because they don't have an address: Social Security card, Birth Certificate, Home/Car Insurance Card, Military ID, US Passport, State Employee ID, College ID, Notices from the BOE. Thanks to Ohio House Bill 3, a parting gift from the Ohio Republican Party, it is now easier for an American citizen to enter the United States from a foreign country than it is to vote in the State of Ohio."

[paulk]

4. here's one I check out occasionally

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[SlipperySlope]

7. I like this one - thanks!

[midnight]

9. This is just pathetic.

About seven republicans this year have been arrested, almost a half million innocent people killed, jobs are offshored, sex scandles, what is it going to take? Why is it so close?

[cassiepriam]

12. Yes, what does it take? Polls must be rigged. Like the elections. nt

[The Gunslinger]

20. The Dems are going to lose 1 blue state seat

in CT When Lieberman wins. It shouldn't be this close, but it is.

[Hav]

11. .

Another good site with lots of info: http://www.electionprediction.us/

It was already said, there are many close races that could go either way. And although the Dems are favored right now to get 50 or 51 seats, it would mean that every close race, especially those that were statistically tied, goes to the Dem. And some say that this is not very likely.
But one can still dream to even win Virginia. 52 is a great number ;).

[SlipperySlope]

14. Very good site - thank you.

[greeneyedboy]

17. it's Schroedinger's election - we don't know until we GOTV.

[Demeter]

18. Getting Better Every Day!

It all comes down to a matter of election fraud--one must wonder, howver, just how many elections they can fix simultaneously. And get away with it.