Intrade- 70% Chance of Dems Retaking House-30% Chance Of Retaking Senate

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/


This is a good site because it's based on actul wagers where people put their money where their mouths are.

Also, there's a theory that as more people come to believe something will happen it will...


It also has odds on individual races:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[kurth]

1. One house is all we need to defund Iraq

and the Bush machinery.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Actually

Any president would probably withdraw from a war before it was defunded...

How many years were we in Nam without it being defunded?

[Hosnon]

2. Very cool. Given enough players, I bet this would be most accurate. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. You Can Google Iowa Future Markets...

eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Same Principle

A bit harder to decipher...

[ComerPerro]

6. If there is a place where you can wager on election results,

bet everything on Republicans.

Because if the Dems win, that's good, and you'll be happy to lose.

But if the Republicans win, you will need the winnings. Trust me.

[TahitiNut]

16. That's an effective definition of a 'hedge bet.'

:silly:

[ClintonTyree]

7. Only a 30% chance of gaining the Senate, huh?

RATS! I wanted both Houses so that Impeachment proceedings could go on unfettered. We have a lot of work to do yet!

[WI_DEM]

8. Six seats is tough to get but it's still doable despite the odds.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Have To Look At The Site Closer...

But it seems if you add all the seats where we are favored we get to 51 or 52...The thing is the odds are so narrow in TN and OH...

[Hav]

10. .

Yes, 30% sounds low considering that currently the polls favor the Dems but I'd say it's because the Dems need to win almost every close race while the Repubs only need one of the close states besides Virginia I think. And I have read that it is seen as not very likely that every close race will end up going to the Dems.
But there is still hope of course.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The Dems Need To Win Every Close Race

TN, RI, and Misssouri...


The Repugnants only need to win one....

Oh, Webb over Macaca would be an upset...

My favorite race is TN... Harold Ford would be the first African American elected senator from the former Confederacy in history...

[onenote]

11. even with a majority, not enough for conviction in the senate

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Would Rather...

I would rather begin to heal the damage to this country then going on a quixotic mission to impeach the Asshat In Chief...

[onenote]

15. I agree

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Prefer To Leave The Verdict On Bush To History...

And that verdict will read that he misled the nation into a costly occupation it could not win and where the treasure of this nation in lives money, and good will was wasted...

I do think history will be much kinder to 41 who had the wisdom not to push on to Baghdad in Gulf War One...

[tridim]

14. Why would anyone bet money on an election overseen by Diebold?

I'd be just a bit pissed if for instance I put money on Gore in 2000 and lost that bet because the election was stolen. Sucker's bet IMO.

I still think we're going to win BTW, but the voter intended Democratic gains in Congress will not be accurate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. People Bet On All Kinds Of Events-Even Those That Can Be Fixed...

I guess if someone believes the election will be DIEBLODED they can bet on the Pugs...

[tridim]

19. My point is that you're betting on..

+1 Dem gain
+5 Dem gain
+10 Dem gain
+15 Dem gain
etc.

Those numbers will not be accurate with Diebold in the mix. It's like running a horse race and letting a computer choose the winners before the race instead of using the actual results. I would never bet on that race.