Remember remember the 5th of November! (Saddam trial verdict)

[Ignacio Upton]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/16/74251/185

Even though it's practically a given that Saddam will be convicted for his war crimes (and rightfully so, because he's still a ruthless dictator, and I say that as someone opposed to the war) we should be concerned that Bush will manipulate the verdict into a political moment, trying to reproduce the bounce that he got from Saddam's capture. Unfortunately, I won't be surprised if the media gives the verdict an orgy of coverage. I can picture Bush giving a primetime address the night before the midterms to trumpet the GOP line of how the Saddam verdict vindicates the war. This, IMHO, is one of three potential October Surprises (even though this event happens in November, for classification purposes I'll call it an October Surprise.) THe other two are a New Jersey State Surpeme Court verdict on gay marriage, which I think is scheduled for October 25th, and the other is a possible provocation of Iran (this one sounds tin foily, but if true, we have World War III on our hands.)

[MidwestTransplant]

1. It will remind everybody of the cost we have paid to put a 2 bit dictator

in jail.

[MrModerate]

2. Wet firecracker . . .

And the NJ decision is too close to the election to do very much about getting disaffected 'Lican supporters to the polls. WWIII might get their attention -- but again, not get them to the polls.

I think the October surprise is already under way -- mass quantities of money for negative ads to bring 'Lican losers close enough to their challengers to make the preprogrammed vote theft more credibile.

[Ignacio Upton]

3. I hope that:

1. The Saddam verdict is postponed.

2. The NJ Supreme Court upholds the marriage ban. NJ has a Democratic legislature and Governor. They can legalize gay marriage if they have the political will to do so.

We don't need these two events preventing us from getting supeona power on November 7th.

[MrModerate]

4. Well, we're going to have to agree to disagree here . . .

I think the two events you cite will be seen as nonevents.

With regard to post-7th subpoena power, I'm not entirely convinced we want to spend the next 2 years ripping the government apart instead of spending it fixing some of the damage done over the last 6 years and preparing to take the White House in 2008.

[Phredicles]

6. The first essential bit of damage repair is to hold those who

did the damage accountable.

[MrModerate]

7. The first, essential actions will be to . . .

fix the laws they've wrecked. Personal accountability will take historians a generation or more to sort out.

I'm not even convinced we should impeach the bastard and vice-bastard, in that it would provide no room for legislating wisely, which is what we'll need to do to win both the White House and Congress in 2008. Unless we change the president's party in 2008, that will lock in place all of Bush's "unitary executive" bullshit, and we'll be several more steps down the road to selection of a President for Life (you fill in the name).

[Phredicles]

5. The way things are deteriorating in Iraq,

I wonder if it'll still be feasible to deliver a verdict to anyone by then. I think the time for frantic mobs to be scrambling desperately onto helicopters is coming; the situation is clearly not stable.