Watch out when Bush is "confident" about having an election go his way

[BurtWorm]

The first time I noticed something odd about Bush's uncanny confidence was 2000, when, after three networks had declared Florida for Gore, the Bushes got them to come to their hotel room and broadcast their opinion that they were sure they were going to win Florida. I rolled my eyes then, but as the night wore on, I could only watch in horror as the gap between Bush and Gore shrunk, as if on command.

I would love to see the smirk wiped off Bush's face, but I don't trust Republicans for anything in the world. I fear they have some technical tricks waiting to be unveiled. I hope I'm wrong.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/14/AR2006101401051_pf.html


White House Upbeat About GOP Prospects
Self-Assurance of Bush, Rove and Others Is Not Shared by Many in the Party

By Michael Abramowitz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 15, 2006; A04

Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats -- shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush's second term.

In the Senate, Rove and associates believe, a Democratic victory would require the opposition to "run the table," as one official put it, to pick up the necessary six seats -- a prospect the White House seems to regard as nearly inconceivable.

The Mark Foley page scandal and its fallout have many Republicans panicked, but Rove professes to be taking it in stride. "The data we are seeing from individual races and the national polls would tend to indicate that people can divorce Foley's personal action from the party," he said in a brief interview Thursday.

The official White House line of supreme self-assurance comes from the top down. Bush has publicly and privately banished any talk of losing the GOP majorities, in part to squelch any loss of nerve among his legions. Come January, he said last week, "We'll have a Republican speaker and a Republican leader of the Senate."

[hsher]

1. I'm distrustful as well

Fascists will stop at nothing. Personally I think they're going to pull some trick and keep all their crooked kind in the House. Not only that, I feel in my gut something is going to happen to keep Bush in office for a third term. People scoff when I say that, but what's to stop a group of people who actually dismantled Habeas Corpus from repealing the twenty-second Amendment? Piece of cake; just watch.

I think a civil war will erupt when it happens, though.

[Hailtothechimp]

2. There's not gonna be an election this year.

Remember, NYC was hit on election day in 2001. Could very well happen again this year.

They must know something we don't.

[LuckyTheDog]

6. Maybe

Remember the trial balloon they floated about "extending" Giuliani's term?

[LuckyTheDog]

3. They are up to something

Keep an eye on the Eisenhower carrier group -- not to mention the voting machines.

[BurtWorm]

4. I don't believe an attack on Iran will have the effect they would want.

It's the voting machines, late-arriving absentee ballots and police road blocks I worry about.

[LuckyTheDog]

7. Or an "emergency" of some kind

Bush is not acting like a president who intends to leave office in January of 2009.

[TomInTib]

5. I don't even want to discuss it. Just the thought makes me ill.

If what I think is gonna happen really happens, I will see you in Dominical, Costa Rica.

[magellan]

8. We'll have to wait and see what "party" tricks they pull

...as election time draws nearer. Without a really fearsome terra alert/attack, a false flag attack leading to war with Iran or NK, or a way of scaring the religious right to the polls, they'll have a hell of a time explaining how they won. I expect any or all of the above between now and Nov 7th, a Rovian Special.

[BurtWorm]

9. You're forgetting the effect of the media's denial of anything wrong

The number of times we'll hear about the undying strength of the Republican get-out-the-vote machine, the capacity of the voters to surprise the pundits and prove wrong the polls.

As I say, I hope I'm wrong.

[fooj]

10. That was a moment that I will NEVER forget.

He knew because he rigged it. :grr:

[Bluebear]

11. He is "upbeat" about Iraq, too. Don't sweat it.

Just work hard, my brothers and sisters, get out the vote. With the way these polls are going, they can't cook this election without it being painfully obvious what is going on.

[BurtWorm]

12. Good point.

:toast:

[maine_raptor]

13. Remember history,

right up until the end Hitler was issuing orders to German Army divisions that didn't exist.

I read nothing more into this than he is swimming in De-Nial.

[bdamomma]

14. We have to get out there and vote, and if they plan to steal again

we should make a trip to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Not again are they going to screw us again.:mad:

[Taxloss]

15. Politicians always demonstrate confidence that they'll win.

They need to keep their base mobilised. You have to appear confident in the face of overwhelming defeat, so the base still turns out and votes and doesn't stay home because all is lost, and you have to warn of possible defeat if victory looks almost totally certain, because otherwise people won't bother voting for you because they think it's in the bag. It's a balancing act, but a good rule of thumb is that their private demeanour is almost always the opposite of how they feel inside. Bush is losing, and knows it.

[BurtWorm]

16. As I say, I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

I really, really, really hope they lose as badly as it looks like they're going to lose. So bad it hurts. I hope they have to crawl on their bellies and knees through broken glass (metaphorically speaking, of course) to 2009.

[undeterred]

17. Bush's chief personality trait is denial

and its always worked for him because he has been bailed out by somebody else every step of the way for his whole life long. Naturally he believes that somebody will pull off a miracle this time. He doesn't have to have the plan or the smarts, he just sits back and somebody else takes care of it. They always have.

He's in denial now.

[Flying Dream Blues]

18. And in '04, I remember Karen Hughes on election night

when all the exit polls were showing * (hadn't "earned" the second * yet) WAY behind, she said that * had been informed that things were looking bad for him and that he "took it calmly." What? No cursing tantrum? Well then, he must have known SOMETHING we didn't.

What I believe is that they KNEW they couldn't leave it up to chance and/or the Supreme Court to give * his "political capital" this time. So * had been warned that the exit polls were going to be bad, but not to worry, the "VOTES" would go his way. Just thinking about this makes me ill all over again.