|
Edited on Mon Oct-09-06 03:22 PM by Ignacio Upton
I know that this scenario might seem too rosy to comprehend, but I don't see how North Korea can survive politically when Kim Jong Il dies. Does he have a son or daughter to take over when he dies, like his father, Kim Il-Sung, had in him? In the former USSR and China unlike North Korea, there was a Communist Party independent of Stalin and Mao, so their institutions were able to survive long after the deaths of their "glorified leaders," and eventually Communism collapsed in both countries (while the party still runs everything in China, the country is capitalistic/authoritarian in practice, and friendly to exploitive corporations.) The only other Communist country I can think of that may have this personality problem is Cuba, but Castro has a clear plan of sucession in his brother Raul (although he's only a few years younger than Fidel, so his reign would only last a few years.)
Assuming that Kim dies and North Korea implodes, would it be prudent for South Korea to absorb NK, like West Germany did with East Germany? Personally, I support reunification, BUT only in gradual steps, because the economic problems that reunification would bring on would cause major economic damage to South Korea. Today, the former East Germany is the country's poorest region, and the Communists still hold political sway in the area (although I think it's beginning to change, as Merkel is from East Germany and grew up there under Soviet oppression.) Also, I'm wondering if China and Japan are willing to put up with a reunified Korea? They might see a unified Korea as a threat in military terms (I'm assuming that South Korea would inherit Kim Jong Il's nukes and what's left of his military) and in all honesty, I could see China invading an annexing the north to prevent South Korea from moving in. Japan would be incapable of doing that, as they're not geographically contigous, and even if they rebuild their military, I still see China as the regional hegemon in military terms.
|