Fear and Loathing In the GOP
By Byron York
Sunday, October 8, 2006; B01
Even in the grand tradition of scapegoating in American politics, J. Dennis Hastert's current plight stands out... As fear and loathing spread through panicky preelection Republicans, Hastert looked like a goner, then a survivor, then a goner again and then, well, who knows... The Foley affair has exposed deep fissures within the GOP a few weeks before midterm elections; when the story broke, everyone seemed to be in a different place. Some are in what one top House aide calls the "knee-jerk" camp -- those who called for Hastert's resignation right away. Others are in a camp awaiting more evidence. Still others are in the smell-a-rat camp, suspecting that Democrats were behind the whole thing. And finally, some are in the this-is-proof-of-America's-moral- decline camp, condemning Republican and Democratic leaders alike. No one camp was able to take control, thus allowing Hastert to continue as the longest-serving Republican speaker in history...
One might assume that Hastert's supporters were most worried about the knee-jerk camp. And they were, early last week, when the conservative Washington Times published its editorial "Resign, Mr. Speaker." But a few days later, the pro-Hastert forces came to believe that the knee-jerkers had done the speaker a favor. In the normal course of a Washington scandal, as they explained this scenario to me, many days and many revelations would have to pass before a Republican would become so bold as to float the idea of dumping Hastert. By coming out so quickly against him, the Washington Times and its allies forced conservatives to take sides right away. Most of them, uncertain about the evidence, cautiously sided with Hastert. "What the Washington Times did, in my mind, is they advanced it," the top House aide told me. "The question was, 'Do you think the Washington Times is right, or are they overreacting?' " As it turned out, few chose to support resignation, and Hastert survived the initial challenge.
But the good news for the speaker may be temporary, because his support among conservatives is infinitely complicated by his political baggage. It's no secret that conservatives are unhappy with the performance of many GOP officeholders in Washington, from President Bush on down. In particular, they don't like the party's abandonment of fiscal discipline and its failure to restrain the growth of government. They've been complaining for quite a while now, but the Foley scandal has given them a new reason to take shots at the Republican leadership... Many conservatives would probably support a change in leadership should Republicans maintain control of the House in November. But they just don't want to rock the boat now, a few weeks before the elections. If we win, they say, then we'll get a new speaker. And if we lose, it's not our problem...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/06/AR2006100601414.html