FUTURE SHOCK -- A Possible Future If Bush Attacks Iran (LONG)

[Leopolds Ghost]

** Junior-level military intelligence sources will leak classified info on war plans to the press in October or November making it clear that Bush plans to attack Iran.

** In a reverse of Abu Ghraib, senior generals will be blamed for the leak and a purge of generals opposed to the Iran war will proceed, with prosecutions for leaking classified information and possibly treason. This will not occur until after the war began, however.

** Before this occurs, JCS will see the writing on the wall and go to ground. Bush will spend lots of time fighting with UN and flying around the world talking about "point of no return" and "another 9-11". Meanwhile, the media, having primed the pump already in October, will stop talking about the impending attack, but "sources will say" that "the" war with Iran "may happen after all" if Bush does not get his way (which he will of course won't.)

** Escalating the conflict, Ahmadinejad will unexpectedly go before the media and announce that Iran is prepared to take "pre-emptive action" to block the Straits of Hormuz if American minesweepers (on their way to the Persian Gulf as of Oct. 1) do not stand down. US will disregard the threat and, indeed, step up preparations. MSM will ask: "Is this the start of the war we have been waiting for?"

** A sigh of relief will be breathed when "nothing happens". Columnists will write op-eds saying that Iran is clearly weak and ready to topple from within, as shown by its Soviet-style bluffing, and that no military action on US part will even be needed. Pentagon will report that Iran is making pre-emptive preparations to blockade the Straits before naval ships reach Hormuz, but will decide to keep it secret in order to avoid messing up their strike plans.

** A secret neutrality pact will go into effect between Iran, Oman, and the UAE. Part of the deal will entail no additional US troops in UAE or Oman (beyond the token presence that exists.) The assumption of the deal will be that Dubai will be the last stable financial center left in the region if Iran is attacked. US intel will know nothing about the deal beyond a hunch.

** Suddenly, "heavy" airstrikes will occur at Bushehr and Tehran. These airstrikes will have limited effect on Iranian military or civilian infrastructure, but will wipe out the nuclear facility at Bushehr and several Russian technicians along with it. The Russians will have been warned ahead of time by CIA, but will have disregarded the warning.

** Ahmadinejad will go before TV and announce that "Iran has been attacked" and "a state of war exists". Pentagon will wait to see what Iran does. Media talking heads will flood the airwaves with patriotic anthems ("Mideast War", "War with Iran", "War in the Persian Gulf", "Standoff with Iran"). The question of the hour will be strategy: Where should we bomb next? Since Iran is too weak to retaliate, should we decapitate the regime?

** Iranian diplomats, pre-positioned in Bahrain and Qatar, will promise senior emirs that they have no plans to target those countries. In any event, they promise not to target civilian infrastructure even if attacked by US troops in Bahrain & Qatar directly. To the extent that US intel learns of the conversations, which they will, neocons will portray it as evidence of weakness on Iran's part, saying they so not have the capability to hit those countries.

** Days after the initial airstrike on Bushehr, Iranian agents will complete preparations for the blockade of the Straits.

** US will announce that it is not at war with Iran. Bush will address the nation saying that the strike was successful and "Iran is no longer a nuclear threat". At Russia's prompting, he will apologize for civilian deaths and delcare he is willing to meet with Ahmadinejad to let bygones be bygones. Meanwhile, Air Force will continue top-secret plans for second wave of attacks in the event "Iran attacks the US or a terrorist attack occurs".

** 2 days later, US minesweepers and a battleship will advance into straits to demonstrate that Iran is pacified. Bush will go on the air and announce that Iran has blocked the straits "in violation of international treaty and a clear act of war against the US". He will declare "no more negotiation" and say "the Iran regime is evil".

** A US battleship in the Western Hemisphere, possibly at Guantanamo will mysteriously blow up in a COle-style attack, rallying nervous Americans to Bush's side. "Remember Guantanamo Bay" columnists and Republicans will self-consciously declare, pre-empting the expected, and inadequate, sneering from educated (but not radicalized) Dems about William Randolph Hearst, the Maine, etc., references which most Americans will not understand anyway.

** Airstrikes will immediately be launched against hundreds of Iranian targets, including nuclear sites deliberately not targeted in the initial airstrike because they were "difficult to get to".

** Bush will get on the air again and announce that America will not stop bombing until Iran deposes the mullahs and/or unconditionally surrenders. When questioned on the "all-air force" strategy, Bush will cite Clinton and Serbia as his guiding inspiration. Clinton will denounce the comparison but back up Bush's demand that the bombing continue until Iran surrenders.

** After days of sitting in the strait, several US ships busy clearing the straits of mines and chaperoning oil tankers will be unexpectedly sunk.

** Iranian Shahab missiles, having been smuggled out of attack ready position to prepare for the main wave of US bombing, will wait until we run out of initial munitions and reposition themselves in pre-prepatred bunkers not hit in the initial attack. US agents who have identified the initial location of the Shahab missiles will have called in airstrikes on those locations but not most of the empty bunkers, many of whose locations will remain secret or remote.

** On the second day of the mass air assault on Iran, southern Iraq will erupt in flames.

** Congress will pass an emergency resolution permantently diverting 200,000 troops from Asia (at the secret acquiescence of China) to Kuwait in order to "protect our forces in Iraq from Iranian invasion of the sovereign nation of Iraq".

** Bush will declare that no option is off the table if Iran "decides to widen the war by invading the sovereign nation of Iraq, whose Shi'ite and Kurdish citizens already desire peace."

** Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in Southern Iraq, led by the Badr Brigades, will be shot at.

** The Dawa party and SCIRI will abandon the Iraqi governing coalition. In a good-cop bad-cop strategy US intel will be unaware of, SCIRI will split into a rump Maliki faction, tacitly supporeted by the pro-Iranian elements as a vestigial government (maintaining Shi'ite control over the rump central government and an inside man). Maliki will be percieved as a figurehead by US forces, like Diem. He will spend most of his time hiding in the Green Zone and funneling intelligence to Iranian agents.

** Moqtada Al-Sadr will have a personal hearing with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani before TV cameras. He will emerge and announce that he is choosing to remain in the Iraqi governing coalition while simultaneously asking his followers to "take up arms against anyone who attacks on Shi-ites within the nation of Iraq." In a separate statement, Sistani will denounce the bombardment of Iran and call for peace, having inoculated himself against irrelevance by meeting with the radical Sadr. He will say that he has no position on whether the Iraqi government of Maliki is still legitimate and "that is up to Iraqis to decide." The effect of the press conference will be to make Sadr the second most powerful person in Iraq (after Sistani).

** Badr Brigades and Mahdi Army will declare war on US troops. Sadr will declare that, as a spiritual leader, he has no control over his followers actions but "if US troops attack any Shi-ite, then god willing, they will resist with armed force."

** Senior Shi'ite clerics affiliated with SCIRI will meet with Sistani and come away committed to get out in front of Sadr and the Mahdi. They will announce in sermons at Karbala and Najaf war against the US forces and say that Maliki's government (composed of rump Sunni and Shi'ite factions, and the Kurds) must also reject the US presence or lose legitimacy.

** Under heavy fire, a subastantial portion of existing troops in Iraq will retreat ("reposition") in Kurdistan at the insistence of Kurdish leaders who fear an attack by Turkey or Iran.

** The US port facility AND oil export facility in Kuwait will be bombed by Iran, temporarily severing supply lines as naval skirmishes continue around the Straits.

** Oil exports out of the straits will all but cease.

** Waves of Iranian paramilitary units will cross the Iran-Iraq border and enter into open shooting war with US forces holed up south of Baghdad. US forces will drive them back after heavy losses.

** In response to "attacks on fellow Shi'ites", Mahdi Army and Badr Brigades will enter open combat and pin down US forces in the rear, turning all of Southern Iraq into a free-fire guerrilla warfare zone.

** All US occupying troops will retreat from Anbar province "in preparation for a major assault."

** All US troops will retreat from the east bank of Baghdad, except for the fortresses on the bank itself such as Gunners Palace, creating a state of siege. Mahdi Army will declare Sadr city liberated from US troops.

** Badr Brigades will essentially take over the Marshes and the portion of desert east of Baghdad, creating a beachhead for Iran.

** 100,000 of US reinforcements will enter Iraq in combat mode, while the remaining 100,000 remain in Kuwait to rebuild port facilities there. Several small ships will be lost to mines in the Gulf.

** Instead of relieving Baghdad, troops will turn right and invade Iran. They will immediately sieze almost all of Khuzestan province, further cementing the Gulf oil shutdown since remaining Iranian oil personnel will have no incentive to repair damaged Iranian oil facilities.

** Khuzestanis and Luri Shi'ites will reaffirm their commitment to drive off "the invaders", dashing US hopes that non-Persians would break with the regime.

** US Paratroops will relieve forces in Kurdestan and prompt a US invasion of the Zagros mountains where they will encounter little opposition in a Kurdish area. However, Iranian Kurds will ally themselves with Iran in response to aggression "sanctioned by rival Kurdish leaders" that would at this point, essentiallty run the US-controlled portion of Iraq. Offensive will grind to a halt in the mountains.

** US troops advancing into Iran will stop at the near-impenetrable southern Zagros and await orders.

** 2 US Battleships will be sunk by Iranian missiles in response to ground invasion.

** Anbar tribal leaders will declare themselves an independent Sunni sheikhdom. In a midnight purge, the Saudi members of Al Qaued in Iraq will be lynched and burned in the souk of Ramadi and Fallujah, along with dozens of captured "US agents" who had penetrated factions of Al Qaeda in Iraq, in a repeat of the Erbil disaster of the 1990's.

** Under intense pressure from Shi'ites and Palestinians, Syria will commit to send troops and arms to Iran by way of Kurdish smugglers in Turkey from ports in the Mediterranean, after having recieved private "assurances" from US that Syria will not be invaded at the present time. Huge shiplents of arms will be financed this way by shadowy interests connected to Pakistan and possibly China. Pakistani operatives, including senior Al Qaeda terrorists, will infiltrate Anbar province this way for the first time. A parallel terrorist shadow government, answerable to no one and having no real constituents, will be set up in the desert by "the Saudis", at war with Iraqi sheikhs and the US. US will tacitly back the sheikhs and make no move to reclaim Anbar region.

** Ayman Al-Zawahiri will send a tape from Pakistan announcing that a "new Caliphate" has been established in Anbar province.

** Bush will reinstate the draft, starting with "special skills", with near-unanimaous support from Congress.

** Having established a beachhead in Khuzestan, another 100,000 troops will enter the

** Shahab-III missiles, held in reserve in case of a US penetration deep into Iran, will launch a wave of attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, the Ghawar oil field, US bases in Bahrain and Qatar, and the Green Zone. Massive casualties will occur in the Green Zone as Iranian paramilitary forces penetrate under cover of missile fire in a Tet-style attack.

** Mass protests in the US are met by deployment of nonlethal military weapons producing dozens of casualties. Riots break out in Seattle, Chicago and New York City.

** Violence will occur in small towns in the midwest, as angry working-class youths, mostly unemployed, hostile to both urban Democrats and Republicans, and libertarian in outlook, fight it out with freepers over the consequences of the attacks.

** Troublemakers will be interviewed by reporters and declare that they have been drafted and are eager to serve in Iran/Iraq to fight the Muslims. However, "None of us are fighting for Bush, we're doing it for the American people, and when we get back, there's gonna be hell to pay." Reporters will declare that nothing is amiss and both sides are patriotic, red-blooded Americans who merely disagree about whether to kill or merely imprison anti-war protestors.

** World Can't Wait and other leftist activist groups will announce a "new boston massacre". over the consequences of the microwave attacks.

** Columnists, Democratic leaders, and Municipalities of wealthy, blue urban areas present a united front against "unpatriotic radicals" who would destroy the strategy of Congressional Democrats, which is to let Bush dig himself in deep enough in Iran that public opinion once AGAIN turns against the war, and THEN start investigations as close to the 2008 election as possible, with the assumption that Bush will be pardoned by either Hillary or McCain.

** DLC-led Municipalities such as New York, LA, Chicago, Boston and DC, led by real estate interests reeling from sudden stagflation, pass emergency crackdown laws on what is left of the urban poor, declaring the remaining ungentrified areas "havens for domestic terrorism" caused by "anarchists and Iranian sympathizers" from "outside city limits".

** To the sound of cheers from the urban elite, who control most of the neighborhoods in the aforementioned cities, ID Curfews go into effect by DLC run city councils, allowing non-city residents to be arrested on the street after 10 PM unless they can prove (by way of a theater ticket or bar tab) that they are in the city to partake of its nightlife. At the instigation of DLC-led local governments, random ID checkpoints are set up on major arteries leading into major US cities.

** The overwhelming object of curfews and ID checks, ostensibly to "protect against domestic and Iranian terrorism" is to prevent anti-war rioting from precipitating the impending real estate collapse.

** Drained of law enforcement by the war, and battered by a flood of heroin from Afghanistan by way of the Pakistan/Kurdish/Syrian connection, as well as crashing real estate ill-timed with the impending depreciation of houses built in the 1960s, inner suburbs around major US cities, including southern Prince George's and central Fairfax County in the DC area, parts of Baltimore county, East LA, southern areas of Seattle, San Jose and Richmond CA, the inner ring suburbs of Chicago and Atlanta, parts of Brooklyn beset by anti-war violence brought on by white student agitators, and towns in New Jersey such as Edison, Passaic, Bayonne, Elizabeth and Perth Amboy, plunge into a deep real estate and crime depression, with no-go zones in the outlying areas.

** In the interests of "safety", the Federal government DHS suspends service on DC Metro, Chicago's EL, and BART.

** Real estate prices crash. Police barricades are set up between fully-gentrified zones and "no longer safe" zones in urban areas, as during the 1970s. "Yuppie flight" enters the lexicon.

** Sweeping NSA wiretap bill passes under the new Congress. DLC Dems declare victory, having sponsored the bill in conjunction with McCain in opposition to an even more radical 2007 proposal by the Bush admin.

** The Federal Government nationalizes all low-lying parts of New Orleans, not including the wealthy Lakeview subdivision. Remaining residents are classified as squatters or anti-government activists. Attempts at "clearance" are beset by sabotage. Sporadic violence breaks out between African Americans and Hispanics brought into the city to clear it. Bush condemns anti-war activists for blocking the reconstruction effort of "another US city that was attacked" and gets wide applause. His popularity in the South shoots up. Freepers urge Bush to go in and "root out all the remaining ----- in the low-lying parts of new Orleans if they refuse to work to help rebuild the city" into an air-base.

** Anti-war activists in Seattle and New Orleans declare a "free city" movement and start pirate radio stations urging residents to "refuse and resist the Bush regime". Bush orders local officials to engage in crackdowns similar to the major Northeastern and Californian cities, but is met by intransigence on the part of city officials, some of whom side with the protestors and say "the war in Iran is a war for America's soul."

** One city councilman and several journalists is arrested and detained on charges of "aiding and abetting terrorists". Large parts of the anti-war movement are declared criminals or terrorist sympathizers, and a dragnet is instituted, using NSA wiretaps, to interview and "name names" from all individuals associated with the "more radical anti-war groups".

** UFPJ breaks apart into factions, split between radicals, fed-up mainstream democrats and libertarian independents, loyal oppositionists (a coalition of naive grassroots centrists, party operatives of uncertain political leanings, and affluent hardcore leftists seeking to develop connections with the DLC, like the trotskyist and stalinist neocons did in the 1970s) and agent provocateurs. The loyal oppositionists tacitly support the curfew policies on the basis that "regardless of the criminality of the Bush regime, we cannot let thugs destroy our US cities or we will have another New Orleans."

** Prompted by whistleblowers inside the system, NSA blackmailing scandal breaks wide open, eventually leading to the downfall of large parts ofthe Bush administration and the Republican party.

** The US is bogged down in Iraq and Khuzestan and has been driven back in the northern Zagros Mountains. US Paratroopers and special forces engage in guerrila warfare throughout Iran, with heavy casualties that are kept secret from the media because they are covert missions.

** Khuzestan is an armed camp with non-functioning oil pipelines, although Iran has lost the ability to attack it from without.

** Iranian troops pour across the Iran-Iraq border near Baghdad, where the Zagros is close to the border and the front lines are porous.

** US casualties in Iraq are double or quadruple those at present.
In an attempted PR flourish, US "turns over" the Green Zone to the "newly empowered, nationalistic" Maliki government which is nominally opposed to the Iran invasion and nominally wants both US and Iranian troops out of Iraq, which has become the main battlefield. In a repeat of Lebanon (1999) and Saigon (1975), US troops depart the Green Zone under sporadic small-arms fire.

** Public opinion turns decisively against the War and Republicans throughout the country, except in Idaho, Utah, western Oklahoma, parts of Texas, and white parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, where polls show a majority of residents beginning to hold near-fascist viewpoints.

** Emboldened by revelations of blackmail, brave politicians begin holding hearings on the Bush administration, with or without the permission of senior Democrats. Major (though not all) shoes begin to drop. Major issues that sites like DU think important are put by the wayside as seemingly lesser issues become huge in the media. Media revolt within corporate newsrooms, prompted by blackmail and other revelations, results in a lack of coordinated effort to quash revelations.

** Pat Robertson and other right-wing leaders declare that "the Messiah is on earth and is ready for the final battle."

** Frightened by Robertson's and other statements, evangelical groups begin deserting the pro-war American camp in droves and ally themselves with various libertarians, leftists, and various unheard-of populists and independents. Several Huey Long-style politicians emerge who fall somewhere between Buchanan and Kucinich in their political views.

** "Anti-government" emonstrations break out in small towns in the South and Midwest. Freepers and Fundies loyal to the Bush regime engage in violence against "atheist liberals" and "apostates" (libertatians and anti-war christians).

** Newly radicalized groups of religious libertarians declare that the Anti-christ is in the Middle East and that he is in the employ of the Bush administration, in accordance with their interpretation of Revelations.

** They are given more reason to think so when the US unexpectedly invades Syria, sending a line of troops through the hostile Anbar province to quickly take Damascus. In response, Iran instigates Hezbollah to attack Israel.

** In a momentous photo-op that is on the front page of newspapers across the world, American and Israeli generals shake hands across the Litani river near the Syrian border.

** US is Diplomatically isolated in the world as Russia, Latin America, and various European countries boycott US Exports. China dumps US bills, prompting the dollar to go in the toilet. Double-digit inflation in the US. The Strategic Petroleum reserve begins to run out, forcing gas lines (exacerbated by the "temporary wartime shutdown" of mass transit systems in the US).

** Mysterious financiers begin shipping oil and gas from Russia TO Iran by way of tankers in the Caucasian Sea, in return for credits on future exports. Russia takes no credit for stopping the tanker shipments, which are leaving Uzbek and Khazak facilities. In defiance of the US, "Belarussian" engineers construct an underground pipeline between Tehran and the Caucasian Sea, passing throguh the Elburz. US ceases to recognize Belarus.

** "Anti-Regime" Iranian expats form a "free Iranian Government" in the UAE, citing security concerns in Khuzestan and a desire not to be associated with the US invasion. US lauds the expats as successors to de Gaulle and the Free French.

** "Anti-Regime" expats with extensive contacts to the Pentagon form an off-shore Oil Bourse in Abu Dhabi, fincanced by credits from future Iranian oil exports. Extensive capital flight from Saudi Arabia.

** Despite heavy pressure from US officials, the "free Iranian" expats insist on Bourse trades in Euros, double-crossing the Pentagon. One of the Emirs of Abu Dhabi agrees to grant the concession for the off-shore Bourse. He is later assassinated.

** Overnight, the UAE becomes the Hong Kong of the Middle East.

** The US enters a severe recession, coupled with Argentine-style inflation and infrastructure decay. Americans begin to lose customer confidence sufficient to keep many chain stores afloat, and a wave of consolidation occurs. Retail centers and speculative office buildings become abandoned, making it difficult for would-be terrorists to find suitable targets. Squatting becomes commonplace.

** An epidemic of assassination occurs in the UAE, with various victims turning out to have ties to the US, Pakistan, Kurdistan, Al Quaeda, the "pro-neuteality" emirs who authorized the creation of the Bourse, and the "anti-regime" Iranian elements, who turn out to have ties to the Iranian regime after all...

** US, having occupied southern portions of Syria, attempts and fails to establish a second, secure supply line into Iraq through the Bekaa Valley from the Mediterranean via Tyre.

** Hezbollah enters into direct conflict with US troops in Lebanon.

** Israel, suffering from popular and electoral revolt, withdraws from Lebanon and Syria as US troops advance into northern Israel to "protect" the Holy Land. In a side-agreement, Israel withdraws troops from the West Bank on the grounds that both Israel and Palestine are now occupied by outside forces.

** Palestine declares independence on condition with the new Israeli PM that they declare neutrality and mutual non-agression with Israel, and opposition to US presence in the region. The Israeli PM is assassinated by pro-US radical Orthodox settlers.

** The Palestinian PM, heavily funded by Russia and intimately familiar with by-now co-opted Hamas elements, declares martial law and exiles the hard-line wing of Hamas to Lebanon, Jordan and Hejaz. Faced with a population crisis and regional war, the "Right of Return" is ignored. Gaza becomes independent and declares war on Israel. On the ground, nothing changes in Gaza.

** Al Quaeda bombs go off in US shopping malls. To divert attention from the administration's failure to quash Al Quaeda in Pakistan and the irredentist "Caliphate of Al-Anbar", Hezbollah is blamed for the attack.

** US troops give Hezbollah fighters, most of whom are Lebanese citizens, no quarter, and accede to no law or convention in treatment of captives. Hezbollah does the same.

** Athough unable to infiltrate the US, Hezbollah stage bombing attacks against US facilities throughout the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf Coast of Saudi Arabia oil fields where many Shi'ites are employed.

** US troops in Kuwait drive south into Saudi Arabian Gulf coast to "defend the Saudi regime from attack by Iranian forces".

** The Saudi Monarchy splits apart. Radical Wahabi elements form a separate, hostile to the US government known as "The Kingdom of Hejaz and Mecca". The weakened Saudi central government is confined to Riyadh, with the Gulf Coast of Saudi under US protectorate and nominally part of Saudi. As in the case of Somaliland, US does not recognize the existence of "Hijaz and Mecca" and thus has no reason to attack it (which would be militarily and politically impossible.)

** Realizing the threat of Al Qaeda has actually materialized, US forces move quickly to decapitate Al Quaeda in Pakistan, previously ignored. Osama bin Laden is killed. In a gruesome episode of media curiosity, instead of a trial or resultant follow-up operations to wipe out Al Quaeda from Pakistan, bin Laden's body is brought back to Manhattan morgue to be examined by reporters and officials. US troops leave Pakistan and abandon southern Afghanistan to Taliban warlords on the basis that "we've won". Western Afghanistan allies itself with Iran.

** In response to the formation of an American Viceroyalty of, essentially, Syria and Mesopotamia extending across the Fertile Crescent:

Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, Libya and Hejaz form a mutual defense pact known as the Suez Pact, surrounding Israel and the American corridor to the sea, after clever negotiation by Jordan, a moderate goverment now surrounded by hostile forces on all sides.

** The decision by Turkey to join the coalition splits apart NATO.

** Knowing that they are too weak to besiege Israel, US counts on Turkey not to allow Hijaz to declare war on Israel.

** With US tacit approval, Turkey invades and occupies the northeastern portion of Syria, where US forces are bogged down in desert guerrilla warfare. Declaring itself in opposition to "Kurdish separatists" and its desire to "liberate" the rump northern portion of Syria as a nominal member of the Suez Pact, Turkey ignores US requests and invades Kurdistan as well, annexing the KDP held areas and confining US troops to the areas around Kirkuk and Sulaymania, now the only US-friendly territory in the Middle East.

** US troops are ordered to stand down from Turksh agression; however, Jalal Talabani, who runs Kurdistan as an independent state, allies himself with the occupied areas commanded by the Kurdistan Democratic Party's Barzani (conveniently in a Turkish jail and scheduled to be executed) and the terrorist PUK organization inside Turkey, who suddenly recieve a fresh infusion of US cash and supplies, channeled through Kurdish smugglers; and against the Iranian Kurds who are allied with the Iranian government in a stand-off on the Iran-Kurdistan border. Talabani declares a Free and Independent Republic of Kurdistan encompassing all of the Kurdish areas in surrounding states.

** Al Quaeda's senior terrorist cells in Pakistan, mostly Saudi, Yemeni and Egyptian, decimated by a (finally) serious US response unencumbered by the Pakistani secret service, pack up and leave for Saudi Arabia, chiefly the mountainous interior between the pro-US Saudi kingdom based in Riyadh and Hijaz. Unfortuneyrly, this places Al Qaeda in a black hole impenetrable to US special serivces.

** Pakistan's military government is overthrown. US forces guard nuclear facilities in and around Islamabad and elsewhere. Fears of an Al Qaeda bomb and nuclear annihilation of SE Asia are neutralized when anti-US Sikh leaders sieze power and establish a national unity government. US siezes and destroys Pakistani nuclear infrastructure.
The President of India, a Sikh, pledges not to engage in offensive or defensive operations against Pakistan south of the Kashmir border.

** The Republican successor to Bush, having defeated McCain and Giuliani (in the Primary) and Hillary Clinton to become president, declares martial law.

** From their base in the ostensible and unpopulated "Caliphate of Baghdad and Mecca", which includes desert areas of Al Anbar province and Hijaz, Al Quaeda stages another massive attack on the US, destroying the reputation of Homeland Security and the martial law proponents.

** The 44th president, having pardoned Bush 43, is impeached. The Republican party dissolves, amidst factionalism and popular rejection.

** The Democratic party, having absorbed a massive influx of secular, conservative professionals in favor of martial-law, curfews and domestic spying, splits apart into the New Democrats (based in Eastern Seaboard, Illinois, newly-Democratic Texas and the Southwest, and California), the Democratic Populist Party (in northern New England, the northern tier, of the Plains/Northwest, and Pacific Northwest) and the Constitutionalist/Dixiecrats (based in the Deep South, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Utah and Idaho, as well as Florida where Hispanic voters and Midwestern transplants have been radicalized in favor of "law and order" national security and against the still-surviving Raul Castro regime.)

** The Dixiecxrats are considered the successors to the fundamentalist wing of the GOP. Big Business flees to the New Democrats, who already control most of the nation's richest cities, which are now islands of extreme wealth in a sea of decaying sprawl.

** Development and Social Service regulations go out the window in city centers as the New Democrats, backed by the DLC, pledge to "restore America's entrepreneurial spirit in the new economic war with China", which mostly consists of trying to replicate the booming economy of Dubai.

** America enters a prolonged Cold War with China...

*** ...which we lose when the Dominionists, having siezed control of the Dixiecrat party, wins the Presidency as the Populist faction, backed by anti-government and civil-rights activists in the northern tier, gains ground against the New Democrats, splitting the vote.

** Taking advantage of the split, Dominionists sieze the presidency in a reverse of Lincoln's first election and attempt to institute a theocracy, causing the US to split apart, Soviet Union-style.

** The US reaches an armistice with Iran.

** Texas and California become independent (and formidable) states. Asian, European, and Middle Eastern countries rush to curry favor with Austin and Sacramento.

** The Pacific Northwest, now known as Cascadia, collapses into libertarianism when the State of Jefferson declares independence from California and Oregon. Anti-PRC Chinese financiers purchase and keep Seattle afloat.

** Pennsylvania and the Midwest, in response to tanks in the streets sent from the new Dominionist "national capital" of Springfield, Missouri, declare themselves the Federated States of America (headquartered in Philadelphia, but with most of its political support in Chicago and Minneapolis).

** North Carolina, finding itself suddenly on the front lines between a DLC-controlled urban East Coast USA and the Dominion of the US, requests and is granted independence and neutrality to serve as a buffer between the two.

** The (internationally recognized) United States of America consists of Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York State, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut, as well as (nominally) Arizona and New Mexico.

** US troops, still controlled from Washington, finally leave Iraq in 2035.

** Remaining Al Qaeda elements in Anbar and Hejaz are promptly rounded up and executed in mass graves by frightened Arab successor regimes.

** Dominionist elements sieze control of the overseas military and invade Israel and Palestine from the American base in Damascus.

Note: I am writing this out because, in talking about it, it does not have to happen. Predictions, when publicized, generally are either self-fulfilling or self-negating. Let us hope that predictions of these sorts of consequences can be self-negating by preparing ourselves for these sorts of consequences by understanding the implications. We know that the Bush admin cannot plan its way out of a paper bag, so let us "arm ourselves with foreknowledge".

[villager]

1. whew! What a read!

Good stuff in there -- how long were you working on it?

[RebelOne]

2. Let's hope none of this ever comes to pass. n/t

[Leopolds Ghost]

3. I've been thinking about the possible consequences of the Bush Doctrine

since we first started hearing about Iran in 2005.

Official "worst case scenarios" are both more, and less, outlandish
than what might actually happen if we remove the underpinnings that
delicately balance the world order at the present time.

So... whaddaya think? (It's so long, I figured it wouldn't get any
replies yet... perhaps it would make a good book, but I don't wanna
have anyone knocking on my door saying "where did you get this information?" :hide:

It's all extrapolation based on what we know about the current
political climate. I'd say it's a worst case scenario, except...

I can't really bring myself to even contemplate what would happen
if someone decided to use nukes in the next 50 years.

[villager]

4. make it a book! If you can write it fast enough...!

The future, alas, gets here all too fast...

[Leopolds Ghost]

12. I'm assuming/hoping that most of this stuff will not happen, but

any one element of it is plausible, if we do not carefully consider
where we are headed.

As someone else on this thread mentioned, this is not the worst case
scenario. It's just the second-to-worst.

How will Americans react if Charles Krauthammer (a PROPONENT) is right? If Iran would be an economy-destroying war that would take decades to get out of?

That's why I included possible ramifications at home, such as party realignment, 70's style unrest (and worse -- if the real estate market crashes) and repeated attempts to set aside civil liberties.

[villager]

34. on the other hand, the separate republics could be read

as a "happy ending" of sorts, ending at last the tyranny of the southern, far-right minority over the rest of us....

[enigma000]

5. Good read.

Today's worst case scenario is tomorrow's new normal

I wonder how Europe would make out in this scenario?

[Leopolds Ghost]

8. Thanks!

On Europe, I have no idea. If UAE (which includes the emirate of Dubai and the emirate of Abu Dhabi) inherited Iran's Oil Bourse plans, they would become the wealthiest state between China and Western Europe.

In such a scenario I imagine that Western Europe would mostly be propped up by petro Euros imported via Russia via the Caucasian Sea, making the euro more of an international marker rather than a symbol of a strong regional currency.

Russia would probably take the opportunity to encourage economic independence in Eastern Europe, since they're totally isolated economically without Eastern Europe and the Caucasian oil and gas fields.

They would definitely (Russia) continue on their path to an old-fashioned authoritarian regime, probably stabilized only by the FSB/KGB -- if we remove ourselves from the playing field as a deterrent by bogging ourselves down in the Middle East, then other ideological factions have no base of support, and any internal conflict would send Russia into the Dark Ages -- the FSB/KGB cannot allow that to happen, presumably.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. I think you're just about my favorite DUer.

I was reading along thinking "but what about violence back in the States," and sure enough there it was.

I've a slightly different prediction, though. As soon as US forces launch air strikes on Iranian nuke sites, Iran and Syria quickly strike Israel with WMDs. And there goes everything.

[noonwitch]

7. I think you are overestimating Iran's conventional military capabilities

Remember the Iraqi Republican Guard, and how they were supposed to be so tough?

Iran has a few big modern cities, but is otherwise as much of a 3rd world country as most of their neighbors. On top of that, there is a great deal of dissension within the country.

I don't think we are going to war with Iran, at least not before November and probably not after that. There is another option, that doesn't involve sanctions or large-scale military options, and that is to covertly sponsor a revolution within Iran by the more moderate factions that want to depose the fundamentalist muslim state. If that is Bush's planned tactic, don't expect him to fill us in until it's over, as it would be highly covert.

As far as rumors of activation at bases and such-I know a bunch of soldiers were shipped out this week to Iraq. I don't know if it is to relieve troops who are there now, or to back them up.

[Leopolds Ghost]

9. "Evacuate? In our moment of triumph?"

I think you overestimate their chances.

Oops -- sorry for the Star Wars reference there...

though Grand Moff Tarkin DID have a certain resemblance to Rumsfeld!

The issue is not whether we are capable of overruning Iran easily -- in a stand-up fight we would win every battle, as you may notice in the possible-future scenario I outlined in my OP.

I mentioned we would overrun Khuzestan easily. However we would not be able to prevent Iranian paramilitaries from infiltrating the densely urban, desert and marsh-land, decidedly 2nd-world landscape of Iraq.

Iraq would be the main battleground as our offensive ground to an impasse at the gates of the Zagros.

Think 500,000 Shi'ite insurgents, most Iranian, living in Iraq amidst a friendly population, instead of 30,000 Sunni insurgents living in isolated Sunni majority areas.

The trouble is that Iranians will be fighting from behind the screen of the Zagros, an unassailable, 2000-mile long frontier of impassible mountain ranges. Even if we could punch through the Khuzestan passes, we would have no way of guarding our rear or maintaining supply lines.

Meanwhile, the Iranians would be able to penetrate the border with ease because they could emplace their fighters paramilitary style amidst a friendly population.

We could do the same of course, from the air no less, but with no friendly population to melt into -- unless we can get the Azeris to ally with us -- which Russia will presumably not allow to happen. We could send 50,000 special forces paratroop deep into Persia and it will not depose the regime. Just like bombing Hanoi did not decapitate North Vietnam -- expecially since Tehran, as you say, has so few tangible assets to defend besides sheer civilian population -- and the mullahs have a priveliged sanctuary in Qom. Expect moderate clerics like Khatami to retreat there, preventing Amerticans from targeting it -- it is the Vatican City of Shi'ism and hard-line anti-American.

Of course, you may argue we do what Cheney suggested, according to leaked reports, and ride tanks and troops on rails all the way thru Afghanistan to Tehran thru 2,000 miles of hostile desert terrain -- or convince Azerbaijan to let us base our invasion there, the only place with facilities within striking distance of Tehran.

If you want to know what the Luri Shi'ites are like who dwell in the mountains of Khuzestan near the Iraq border, rent the movie "Grass".

It is a silent film from the 1920s. First documentary filmed by a woman. I can tell you more if you are interested.

[shadowknows69]

21. Never apologise for a quote

from the Holy Trilogy

[louis-t]

10. Jeez, and I thought it was bad when Biff took over Hill Valley....

in 'Back to the Future Part II".

[Leopolds Ghost]

11. Too bad we don't have the DeLorean or we could go back to 2002 n/t

[LA lady]

13. One problem

The US Navy doesn't have any active battleships.

[Leopolds Ghost]

16. What are we using to defend our carriers then? n/t

[Selatius]

23. Missile cruisers, and aircraft equipped with radar operating on carriers

The last battleships were retired after the Persian Gulf War.

We defend the fleet now with missile cruisers and a bunch of escorting destroyers and frigates and supply ships. The aircraft carriers themselves launch warplanes to monitor the airspace above the fleet.

The absolute last line of defense for US carriers are Phalanx chain guns mounted on the carriers themselves. Their job is to throw up a wall of lead to halt incoming missiles by flooding the missile's path with incoming shells. The more one fires, the better the chances of destroying the incoming missile. They are not perfect though, and they would be easily overrun if there are too many incoming missiles.

[Leopolds Ghost]

25. I don't think anything's gonna hppen to our carriers, but the ships nearby

Are a different matter.

Why would a carrier be needed inside the Persian Gulf? To bomb sites in Iraq? They could attack Iran from the Indian Ocean. Most of our bombers are land-based long-distance planes, are they not?

[Selatius]

28. You probably don't need carriers in the Gulf if we bomb Iran

In fact, I'm pretty sure naval commanders would want US carriers outside the Persian Gulf when a bombing campaign against Iran is launched.

Land-based aircraft in Iraq and other countries that host the US should do the trick. Airbases offer far more room for far more aircraft and munitions than the deck of a carrier or several. This is the reason why the Russians never developed a significant carrier force; they did it through land-based aircraft and long-range bombers and cruise missiles. They felt the liability associated with them outweighed any potential benefit.

We also have the stolen island of Diego Garcia to station our big-ass bombers like B-52s, B-1s, and B-2 stealth bombers in case airbases in the Arabian Peninsula are too unstable for such sensitive equipment.

[Leopolds Ghost]

46. So what are we so worried about w/respect to Sunburn Missiles?

I mean, they aren't going to waste them (supersonic ground-to-ship
missiles with evasive action capability) on unarmed tankers, right?

Hmm, maybe that's why the military isn't worried.

How much of their resupply capability in Iraq is ship based?

[Jcrowley]

14. Thanks

K&R

[hunter]

15. Shorter story...

U.S. economy collapses, and troops have to come home to keep a lid on things.

A hundred bucks won't by you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. If they had coffee. But it might buy you a cup of milk if the electricity is working.

"Care for a warm yogurt, mister?"

Rest of world responds with a big fat "Nice knowing you, but I've got my own problems. Stay out of the street and don't get hit by a bus."

[Leopolds Ghost]

18. Even the SUPPORTERS of War with Iran say it will destroy the economy

Charles Krauthammer said this in a WaPo editorial, quoted on DU, which I sadly missed (when was it published?) (He said we had to weigh a decade-long economic collapse against nuclear armageddon, basically.)

[LeftHander]

17. Bunker Busting Nukes in there somewhere?

Becasue any long protracted war with Bush at the helm he will want to use nukes. And if they are used North Korea will have a long range missile by then and China...is not going to stand around and let the US run rough shod over the world for the remaining oil.

I think the EU, China, Russia, Pakistan, India and N. Korea will join together and oppose U.S. aggression...

[Leopolds Ghost]

19. No...if * or Cheney asks for nukes, the JCS will pull a Nixon on *

Word will go out that Bush is mentally unstable and that all military commands must be filtered thru Condoleezza Rice and the State Department.

If they give the command to nuke, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Bush would be isolated and ignored by the generals on the ground and mechanism put in place (meaning: use their own dirt against them) to force them to resign in order to avoid global thermonuclear war. That's what they did to Nixon. They would refuse the order and tell Bush to take it public if he didn't like it.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

20. If you could write this up as a novel...

I'm absolutely serious.

It's an appalling set of scenarios, and I hope none of it ever happens, but the sad thing is that it IS plausible. :scared:

[mdmc]

22. That was pretty long

Will the Simpson still be on FOX?

[Leopolds Ghost]

26. No. The Simpsons will be neutralized in the first wave of attack.

:Montgomery Burns smiley:

Excellent...

[mdmc]

30. k/r

peace and low stress

[Sammy Pepys]

24. You've got quite a screenplay there....n/t

....

[Disturbed]

27. The Iraq Green Zone.

If I were a military planner in Iran I would aim a whole lot of missles at the Green Zone and send in bombers after the missle strikes.

I still don't feel that the Busholini Regime is insane enough to attack Iran. Yeah, it is wishful thinking, for sure.

[robertpaulsen]

29. One additional scenario

I'm not sure if you included this, I know you mentioned oil exports in the Middle East all but ceasing, but I don't think you mentioned the effect this would have on the United States. I think it's safe to predict in this event that the price of gasoline per gallon would exceed the hourly minimum wage in the United States. I don't think this significantly changes any of the scenarios you so brilliantly described, but I think it's important enough to note not only the economic toll this would have on the American pocketbook, but also the sociological aspects of having gas shortages that would make 1973 look like a picnic. I think it's safe to say Chavez will win his re-election this winter, so in the event of war with Iran, not only will we lose our Middle East imports, but I believe Venezuela would place an oil embargo on the US in solidarity with their new friend Iran. I think its important to take this possibility into account.

[Jeroen]

31. Thanks, that was an fascinating read.

[FoxOnTheRun]

32. hm..

http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_16543.shtml

Iran oil bourse at the end of September
Jul 6, 2006

Iran will start the initial phase of its planned Iranian oil bourse at the end of September. An oil ministry official told that his ministry had already presented the relevant documents to the economic and finance ministry and the bourse organisation.

The building that will house the oil bourse has reportedly already been purchased in the southern Iranian island of Kish in Persian Gulf.

Have you read this ?
http://www.fas.org/ssp/docs/GlobalStrikeReport.pdf

[jpak]

33. You forgot Poland

:evilgrin:

[Leopolds Ghost]

37. 2060: "How POLAND Saved Civilization" is published n/t

[ShaneGR]

35. Aliens will return to earth after a million years at space...

They will travel through our atmosphere via electric lightning bolts. These bolts will penetrate into the ground and deposit their occupents into gigantic warmachines buried hundreds of feet beneath the ground. The machines will emerge and procede to destroy or kill everything they see.



Was waiting for that part.

[Leopolds Ghost]

38. Sounds like A.I. or Total Recall.

I tried to stick to a more prosaic Blade Runner scenario.

After all, fans of those movies (and Minority Report) now maintain that they "aren't really dystopias. Most people seem to be doing pretty well for themselves, and the world isn't TOO busted up". Defining deviancy down, maybe?

[OldSiouxWarrior]

45. No. Post #35 was refering to the recent "War of the Worlds" remake.

It was a real stinker. Not worth watching. The 1950's version was much better.

[Leopolds Ghost]

47. What? They musta cribbed the "giant machines underground"

from Total Recall or Stargate or something.

Let me guess, the pyramids take off into space fleeing the onset of deadly anthrax. No, wait -- the alien machines are terraforming Earth to match their native climate. Global Warming was the only warning we would ever get!

Anyhow, hope to generate more discussion on fallout of a war with Iran.

Charles Krauthammer seems to agree with me, in part. And he's still in favor of it.

[focusfan]

36. I think Bush should be stop before all of this happens

surely America wouldn't stand by and let this happen I just
wish Congress would grow testicles instead of having a
P&ssy

[Leopolds Ghost]

44. But then there would be no story.

Seriously, how is it kooky pessimism to contemplate the consequences of our society's currently outlandish actions, yet it is considered optimism when pro-war and anti-war advocates both predict bad things and furthermore wish them upon us in hopes that it will "heighten the contradictions"? I cite as exemples, Charles Krauthammer (in favor) and certain folks who predicted that the sight of body bags would lead to a new era of political activism (against). Can anyone explain this to me? Just look at the posts downthread. Apparently Nothing. Can. Go Wrong.

[Generator]

39. And that's best case

[tomreedtoon]

40. And a Conference of Flying Saucers will take place in Las Vegas!

** Flying saucers will land from Mars, Venus, Mercury and Zoltan. It will be a major media event and will result in the elevation of Dolly Parton to Goddess. Criswell Predicts!!!

Seriously, this is as bad as those right-wing paranoia novels like "The Turner Diaries." Prediction is a fool's game. And the assumption that the right wing will completely control everything in America, without opposition and without interruption, is the most foolish part of the game. Ever hear of random accident suddenly changing history? Did you know Huey Long was making a strong run at the Presidency, ready to turn America into a facist dictatorship in 1932, only he was assassinated?

[Leopolds Ghost]

41. From where I sit, The Right-wing CURRENTLY controls everything in America.

How is it unrealistic to predict that pattern will continue? It has
done so for hundreds of years in other countries and eras.

My scenario is actually a HOPEFUL one, assuming the Republicans (and
their enablers in the metropolitan upper-class) eventually accomplish
their stated goals in terms of DOMESTIC SECURITY and Middle-East
Policy, it could destroy America.

51 Dems in the senate is necessary but not sufficient to stop them.

BTW, does anyone knoe if the NSA wiretap bill was attached to the
Torture bill like people were saying? Nobody has mentioned this.

[tomreedtoon]

42. NOBODY controls America, especially not the Right Wing.

If they had, you and I would not be having this conversation. In addition, if they did control everything, the story of New Orleans would never have gotten out, or the pictures of soldier's coffins. Hell, if they really controlled everything, the New Orleans disaster wouldn't have happened.

The most recognized totalitarian state in the 20th Century, Nazi Germany, wasn't completely under the control of Hitler. The people knew what was going on, even though they didn't complain too much about the official lies about it. There were supremely effective resistance organizations that the Nazis didn't have time, intelligence or energy to quash.

Listen to this and listen well: you are giving your enemy power over you by IMAGINING that they have power over you. That is why Democrats have put up slates of passive, frightened losers ever since 2000. That is why no Democrat has had the courage to speak up. (Aside from people who are outright traitors to the cause like Lieberman.)

Only until a Democratic Presidential candidate remembers the ancient phrase, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," and believes it, will that candidate win. You, on the other hand, believe in nothing but "fear itself." And that is why you fail, young Paduwan.

[Leopolds Ghost]

43. "Even Nazi Germany wasn't COMPLETELY under control..."

Nothing you said here rebuts anything I mentioned in the OP. Do I predict anywhere in the OP that we will end up like Nazi Germany? No. Ergo, it follows that I am not being irrational in assuming a mediocre, less-than-earthshaking outcome to current patterns of American cultural decline.

Insofar as you are correct that even Nazi Germany was not COMPLETELY under the sway of evil RW forces, it proves my contention that it is not unreasonable to assume events of the sort described in the OP without assuming that the right wing will become omnipotent.

Do you assume omnipotence on the part of RW forces who controlled various Latin American and European countries for centuries at a time?

Do you ascribe to them absolute evil?

If so, you missed my part about the Democratic party itself absorbing the seeds of the neocon and fundie agendas, in the unlikely event that the truth were to come out about the Republican party -- and indeed don't you think I am being Pollyanna-ish for suggesting that it will?

My OP suggests that the truth will out and the Repubs will be completely discredited and rejected. In the event that happened, the Dems would probably split into factions, as has happened about three times in American history. Does that fit in with your contention that I am being ridiculous?

Or do you feel it is needlessly pessimistic to imagine that the Republican Party is capable of such things, and thus being discredited for it? If so, you'd probably prefer to join the New Democrats in the event the truth came out and Republicans disbanded.

Keep in mind that, as I said upthread, there are plenty of Americans who are enthralled and excited by Hollywood entertainment that you and I would consider dystopic. They look FORWARD to the sort of future depicted in Minority Report or Blade Runner. As an architecture student, forced to study the works of techno-modern fascists and deconstructionists like Gehry, I have studied their ilk. They are the people -- Democratic leaners for the most part -- who attend conferences and lecture people on how poor must not be allowed to return to the gulf coast "south of the RR tracks". For them, it is all about the material wealth of our society. That is all that matters. That's why the DLC dems don't get up in arms about stuff like the consequences of welfare reform, or eminent domain slum clearance, or ID checks.

[OldSiouxWarrior]

48. Get your crystal ball re-calibrated. It's waaaaaay out of whack.

First, you military stuff is obviously not based on analysis of capabilities. To do that kind of analysis, you have to first know the capabilities, and you can't do that with out knowing the terminology. If you knew the terminology, you would not have made that "battleships" blooper. So your military stuff is next to worthless. Further, you make other military errors that show that you haven't the foggiest idea what you are talking about. You seem to think that U.S. Navy ships are easy to sink.

Let's look at some specifics:

** Iranian Shahab missiles, having been smuggled out of attack ready position to prepare for the main wave of US bombing, will wait until we run out of initial munitions...

You don't know how the military supply system works. ..."run out of initial munitions"...is a laugh, especially as it refers to aircraft bombs. The bases that the planes operate out of have lots and lots of those.

The Federal Government nationalizes all low-lying parts of New Orleans, not including the wealthy Lakeview subdivision. Why in the world would the USAF want to make an airbase out of a place that is BELOW sea level? Contrary to your dreams, the military isn't stupid. They already have Barksdale AFB, in LA. They would not WANT New Orleans as an airbase, nor would any of the other services want it for anything.

** Pat Robertson and other right-wing leaders declare that "the Messiah is on earth and is ready for the final battle."

** Frightened by Robertson's and other statements, evangelical groups begin...

You know absolutely nothing, and I mean NOTHING, about evangelical Christians beliefs. You only know what you have read that has been written by others who know nothing about their beliefs. Anybody who declares that "Messiah is on earth" would not be believed. The Bible is very clear that the second coming will not be secret. Evangelicals are looking for a rapture, not a secret return of Jesus.

I could keep on. The US and the Chinese economies are too much interdependent to go to cold war with each other. On country goes down, the other gets badly hurt too.

You spent a lot of time writing garbage.

[Leopolds Ghost]

49. Point-By-Point Rebuttal of your vaguely insulting remarks.

First, you military stuff is obviously not based on analysis of capabilities. To do that kind of analysis, you have to first know the capabilities, and you can't do that with out knowing the terminology.

Nonsense, that is a sophistic reasoning on your part. Sophistry = attacking your opponent by resorting to fallacious reasoning and semantic arguments. The capabilities involved are quite clear.

Or perhaps you think Iran will be a cakewalk hmm?

Where in the OP do I predict Iran would win a SINGLE BATTLE?

If you knew the terminology, you would not have made that "battleships" blooper. So your military stuff is next to worthless.

I used "battleships" colloquially, as any American would, to refer to the lesser vessels guarding a carrier. Your intense reverence for military terminology leads me to understand that you are a veteran. If so, I'm sorry for insulting your intelligence.

Further, you make other military errors that show that you haven't the foggiest idea what you are talking about. You seem to think that U.S. Navy ships are easy to sink.

They are no more easy to disable than Israeli ships. You seem to think that the Navy will leave its vessels floating in the bathtub known as Dubai harbor, AKA the Persian Gulf.

** Iranian Shahab missiles, having been smuggled out of attack ready position to prepare for the main wave of US bombing, will wait until we run out of initial munitions...

You don't know how the military supply system works. ..."run out of initial munitions"...is a laugh, especially as it refers to aircraft bombs. The bases that the planes operate out of have lots and lots of those.

Funny you should mention that, because that's exactly what happened
with "Shock and Awe". We temporarily ran out. We do not have a limitless supply of on-deck munitions.

The Federal Government nationalizes all low-lying parts of New Orleans, not including the wealthy Lakeview subdivision.
Why in the world would the USAF want to make an airbase out of a place that is BELOW sea level? Contrary to your dreams, the military isn't stupid.

Sure they are. Why didn't they open up the EXISTING base, BELOW sea level in Algiers, to your fellow citizens who were being shot at trying to cross the river to get to Algiers? A good friend of mine is in the Reserve and happens to know all about that base.

Can't answer that? How about this one -- why did senior officials speculate that the low-lying parts of New Orleans -- which you, and they, seem toconsider uninhabitable -- be nationalized by the military in order to fund the reconstruction of the high-ground areas?

They already have Barksdale AFB, in LA. They would not WANT New Orleans as an airbase, nor would any of the other services want it for anything.

I guess you consider New Orleans a poor investment.

** Pat Robertson and other right-wing leaders declare that "the Messiah is on earth and is ready for the final battle."

** Frightened by Robertson's and other statements, evangelical groups begin...

You know absolutely nothing, and I mean NOTHING, about evangelical Christians beliefs.

<my initial two-word reply snipped> I happen to BE a devout Christian.

You only know what you have read that has been written by others who know nothing about their beliefs. Anybody who declares that "Messiah is on earth" would not be believed.

Pat Robertson has already made such remarks.

And Evangelicals SHOULD fear the apostasy of such flag-worshippers.

The Bible is very clear the the second coming will not be secret. Evangelicals are looking for a rapture, not a secret return of Jesus.

Your interpretation of the Bible is incorrect, IMHO.

There is no rapture mentioned in the Bible. Nor will Jesus come down from on high, waving a fiery sword, just because you want him to. See, the problem with this sort of "Evangelicalism" is not only does pre-millenialism distort the Bible in favor of a Fundamentalist (meaning fundamentally relativist and incorrect) interpretation of the text, and not only is it a product of the 19th century, but it discounts the clear admonition to treat people as you would treat Jesus if he returned to earth. I have heard so many admonitions from ignorant hypocrites, to the effect that this is a figure of speech, Jesus will return with a fiery sword to separate the wheat from the chaff, etc. What they don't understand is that the wheat and the chaff have already been separated.

I could keep on. The US and the Chinese economies are too much interdependent to go to cold war with each other. On country goes down, the other gets badly hurt too.

Not if the US economy goes in the tank. Our current ability (in the absence of double-digit inflation) to consume 75% of the world's resources will be outweighed by China's ability to create the same market for THEIR (read: OUR, victims of accelerating capital flight) products by elevating only a fraction of their domestic population into the middle class. Our insatiable demand driving up the price of their goods will no longer be an obstacle to their desire to wean themselves from an unstable dollar. "We don't need you anymore."

You spent a lot of time writing garbage.

Hey, thanks.

[OldSiouxWarrior]

51. Counter Rebuttal

In no specific order.

Evangelical beliefs.

Regarding Rapture. I guess you never read: 1 Thessalonians 4:17
"After that, we who are still alive and are left will be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord in the air. And so we will be with the Lord forever." - NIV

You claim that premillenialism is a recent 19th century interpretation. Guess you never heard of St. Ireanus, Bishop of Lyons, (c.130CE - c.200CE). He was a very firm premillenialist. St. Jerome called him "the apostolic man". St. Theodoret called him "the light of the West." He argues very strongly against allegorizing Scripture.

My point was that modern evangelicals are looking for one, so will NOT believe anyone who says Christ is already on earth. So YOUR prediction of what they will do won't wash. What Roberston may or may not have said is irrelevant. Evangelicals won't follow that kind of message.


Iran:

I never said that Iran would be a cakewalk. In fact, invading Iran would be a mistake. Our ground troops are already spread thin.

Algiers base. It so happens, I have been there. It is a tiny reservist base. There are many, many of those type bases all over the US. Most of them are for political, not military purposes. Keep Congressperson X happy by having something in their district. It has absolutely nothing to do with "real" bases. What they may or may not have done in Katrina has no bearing on my point. The military will not want to turn a below sea level place into a serious major base. They will want to spend the money on existing bases.

Yes, New Orleans should be abandoned. Helping those people find new lives in safer locations is much cheaper and smarter than rebuilding in a location that will get hit again sometime by the same thing.

Military supply. We ran short of Tomahawk cruise missiles, not bombs. Land bases have lots of room and have lots and lots of bombs. Even aircraft carriers have resupply ships traveling with the fleet. Waiting until we run short of bombs will be a loooooong wait.

Further:

Iranian Shahab missiles. Not a big deal, unless WMD are put on the missile. It has a CEP of about 200 yards, and carries a on ton warhead. So half of them are going to miss by over two football fields. They will be useless against point targets and fairly expensive to use against area targets.

Sunburn missiles. Those were put out by the Soviets in 1980. So the Navy has had 26 years to work on countering them. They are a serious threat, but nowhere near an absolute threat. I won't take the time to go into a point by point discussion of the SS-N-22.

I strongly suspect that you are actually hoping for the desolution of the US. You will find this country is much more resiliant than you want it to be.

[Leopolds Ghost]

52. Further Debate on the Issues.

In no specific order.

Evangelical beliefs.

Regarding Rapture. I guess you never read: 1 Thessalonians 4:17
"After that, we who are still alive and are left will be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord in the air. And so we will be with the Lord forever." - NIV

That is afterwards, however -- not suddenly. Aside from the fact that I am not a Biblical literalist and do not believe Paul was inerrant, I do put SOME stock in the idea of the End Time :scared:

You claim that premillenialism is a recent 19th century interpretation. Guess you never heard of St. Ireanus, Bishop of Lyons, (c.130CE - c.200CE). He was a very firm premillenialist. St. Jerome called him "the apostolic man". St. Theodoret called him "the light of the West." He argues very strongly against allegorizing Scripture.

Well, he and I disagree then. Revelations is one big mash-up of symbols and was very narrowly voted in the Bible on those grounds.

My point was that modern evangelicals are looking for one, so will NOT believe anyone who says Christ is already on earth. So YOUR prediction of what they will do won't wash. What Roberston may or may not have said is irrelevant. Evangelicals won't follow that kind of message.

Which is why they will one day wake up and realize how disturbing Robertson's message is.

In any case, as I said, I can't put much stock in any belief that involves Jesus coming down to earth in a flaming chariot, Vishnu-style.

I never said that Iran would be a cakewalk. In fact, invading Iran would be a mistake. Our ground troops are already spread thin.

Well then take it for granted, my scenario in the OP does not involve Iran defeating us in a stand up battle... It involves Iran sitting pretty behind the Zagros Mountains while we get chewed up in Iraq by THEIR allies and paramilitary units, already embedded in that country, using Iraqi militiamen (who needs Basijis?) and twiddle our thumbs in a desolate, non-functional, non-oil-producing Khuzestan guarded by 10,000 foot peaks and a couple easily guarded passes. We can bomb the hell out of Tehran, like we did Hanoi.

We'll have to expend ten times the munitions we did on North Vietnam, since they are 10 times as large and it won't do anything to topple the government. So yes, we will run into supply problems when it comes to bombs. The only direct route to Tehran that does not involve sending a column of troops thru 6,000 foot passes involves Azerbaijan, and apparently, that's not gonna happen. (since it would involve a massive 6-month build-up, via air transport, into a former Soviet Republic).

I'd be willing to bet they'll do the same thing to our captured troops that the North Vietnamese did, now that we've opened the door for it. Persians are... farther along than we are... in their views on acceptable torture.

Algiers base. It so happens, I have been there. It is a tiny reservist base. There are many, many of those type bases all over the US. Most of them are for political, not military purposes. Keep Congressperson X happy by having something in their district. It has absolutely nothing to do with "real" bases. What they may or may not have done in Katrina has no bearing on my point. The military will not want to turn a below sea level place into a serious major base. They will want to spend the money on existing bases.

Yes, New Orleans should be abandoned. Helping those people find new lives in safer locations is much cheaper and smarter than rebuilding in a location that will get hit again sometime by the same thing.

Well, thanks for sharing. I know lots of "liberal enviros" who agree with you. Although I suppose that if you are expecting the rapture then it doesn't much matter if we preserve a world historical site like New Orleans or Venice. I prefer to point to the examples of cities that have survived for millenia thanks to careful flood control measures. Many cities in the middle east sit on "tells" consisting of thousands of years of sedimentation caused by human activity.

Military supply. We ran short of Tomahawk cruise missiles, not bombs. Land bases have lots of room and have lots and lots of bombs. Even aircraft carriers have resupply ships traveling with the fleet. Waiting until we run short of bombs will be a loooooong wait.

Cruise missiles are more accurate and easier to use taking out a
hardened target such as a hole in the side of a 10,000 foot peak.

We can assume that the Iranians are as stupid as the Bush Administration and have not dug such holes, although the Persians are notoriously proud of their reputation as conspiracy theorists who are prone to paranoia and imagining every possible eventuality, whereas Southern rednecks of the sort Bush employs are (according to a recent book by the Heritage Foundation!) historically prone to laziness and suicidal disregard for person and property.

Iranian Shahab missiles. Not a big deal, unless WMD are put on the missile. It has a CEP of about 200 yards, and carries a on ton warhead. So half of them are going to miss by over two football fields. They will be useless against point targets and fairly expensive to use against area targets.

Yes, I understood that.

However, here are the points I factored into my assumptions in the scenario described in the OP:

** the Green Zone is more than 200 yards wide. It is a vast, campus-like setting with enormous buildings and palaces. It is possible to stage a Tet-style attack against such a target under cover of missile attack.

** A one-ton warhead can do a fair amount of damage to the American Embassy which is also more than 200 yards wide.

** It only takes one or two Shahab missiles to take one of the oil terminals offline, which are even larger and more difficult to protect than the Green Zone. Again, it's possible they may stage a combination of attacks, since Iran's best agents are already embedded in Iraq.

** The Green Zone would not actually be abandoned (read: "turned over to the Maliki administration") until or unless we lose the "Battle of Baghdad" which is currently underway. Again, imagine 5 times the current level of resistance and the Green Zone becomes a besieged outpost similar to the Muslim portion of Sarajevo, or the Russian sector of Groznyy.

Sunburn missiles. Those were put out by the Soviets in 1980. So the Navy has had 26 years to work on countering them. They are a serious threat, but nowhere near an absolute threat. I won't take the time to go into a point by point discussion of the SS-N-22.

I didn't say they would take out a carrier. I only said they were capable of doing as much damage as Hezbollah did using a non-supersonic missile.

I strongly suspect that you are actually hoping for the desolution of the US. You will find this country is much more resiliant than you want it to be.

No, I am hoping that none of this comes to pass. Because if it does, America will not be the country your friends and neighbors fought and died for.

What will YOU do if the US decides to use microwave weapons on civilians, or RE-implement area curfews and checkpoints once the current ID laws are finally implemented (no doubt by conservative democrats, Nixon-goes-to-China style? They wanted to in the 1990s.)

I say to you now, if anything happens to our great nation, it will be a product of radical right-wing conservatives making war on the rest of us (by which I mean they will kill people) the moment it begins to appear that genuine American populists have a ghost of a chance of rooting out the entrenched corporatocracy in Washington.

In any event, the Bible teaches those of us who are religious (like you and me) not to submit to principalities and powers who would make war on the values contained in the New Testament, such as pacifism. NOT depose, that is Thomas Jefferson. Refute and reject.

Before you bring up Paul's admonition that "the powers that be are ordained by God", bear in mind that that statement is vague, contradictory (applies and WAS APPLIED TO Hitler), and refuted elsewhere in the Bible, including by Jesus himself. Referring to money, Jesus said: "Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's; render unto God what is God's." When the Catholic Church seized control of the Roman Empire and burned the Library at Alexandria and massacred the heretics, it was fated but NOT ordained by God to do so. Similarly, it was fated that the Hebrews would take unto themselves a king, in the fashion of other nations, even though God counseled them not to do it.

[Mika]

50. Good read. I just love the "still-surviving Raul Castro regime" part.

:thumbsup:


A new version of "The Pelican Brief"? :shrug:

[Leopolds Ghost]

53. self-delete n/t

[Joanne98]

54. My God. That's practically a novel! Did you write all that yourself?

[Leopolds Ghost]

55. It is all just thinking through consequences of a series of actions.

** WHAT IF Bush invades Iran, precipitating the consequences Charles Krauthammer and military experts who SUPPORT the war predict? (global recession; oil stagflation; dissolution of the petrodollar; capital flight to the United Arab Emirates in their emerging financial center of Dubai; military stalemate caused by inaccessible terrain, poor supply lines and an American unwillingness to engage in WWII-style "total war" that would require rebuilding our industries that are moving to China; inevitable invasion of Syria, whose easy conquest would create more problems than it would slove; 200,000 troops trapped in a war fought almost entirely in Southern Iraq)

** WHAT IF the National Security State (ID requirements for exercise of most rights, as in 1930s Europe; extensive use of curfews and limitations on freedom of assembly and movement like those we have seen in the wake of Katrina and various anti-war demonstrations; NSA spying; retinal scans, like a poster here on DU who supported ID requirements recently mentioned) go into effect, under Democrats or Republicans?

** WHAT IF the Republican's scandals become a major media issue, discrediting the Republican party and forcing a major party realignment? How would the radicalized Dominionists and "secret government" advocates, who are far more numerous and influential than any "left wing radical", respond?

You do the math.

[Joanne98]

56. You should make a flash game...

like this one but better!
http://www.idleworm.com/nws/2002/11/iraq2.shtml

[Leopolds Ghost]

57. Interesting.

I dare you to say that my scenario (the war in Iran part, assuming we did go to war) isn't far more credible than this guy's preductions were for Iraq.

(I remember seeing it at the time and thought it was a bit alarmist.)

The consequences at home depend on what happens to the Republican party. Methinks the Dem leaders want them to remain in existence and retain the current respectability of "the office" held by Reagan and Bush I and II; the actual destruction of the Republican party (which is what would happen if folks understood what they were up to) could cause massive instability and force Democratic leaders to make a choice.

Hence the rest of my original post.

[Leopolds Ghost]

58. News: on Schultz today, a Marine call-in says we RAN OUT OF BULLETS

Had to buy more from the Russians.

Female Marine, her son is in Ramadi.

Ed Schultz and caller agreed: The number of our troops in Iraq is LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF MUNITIONS & WAR MATERIEL we have to arm them with.

Hope this addresses one of the points OldSioux mentioned.

[eridani]

59. Looks like you are channelling Harry Turtledove

All very plausible.

[Leopolds Ghost]

60. Republican Congressmen trying to gut Habeas Corpus Restrictions

...For domestic crimes.

Lost the link, but it was a thread from today (9/27).

Meanwhile you have security professionals telling Bush that
"domestic leftists" and anti-war activists are "potential threats"
to be lumped in with terrorists, Nixon style.

Anyone who thinks it unpatriotic to speculate on where all this is leading us should be out on the streets, shouting about what's going on right now. Oh I forgot -- nobody would listen, and in most states, you would be pulled over and arrested for disturbing the peace.