Will there be a war with Iran?

[sabra]

The drums are beating.. What do you think the percentage is right now, that there will be a war?

[htuttle]

1. I think the Bush administration is very likely to do something very stupid

[IChing]

7. HA,ha, likely to do something very stupid??

They are pimping for the fall elections

[acmejack]

8. I think I injured myself laughing!

An explosive snort of hilarity, I may have dislocated something! It is "Likely" there will be periods of darkness this evening as well...

[htuttle]

14. I would normally say, "no sane person would suggest invading Iran"...

...but then remembered we were talking about the Bush administration.

[Skarbrowe]

11. If they can "miraculously" hold on to the House and Senate in

November, I think they might try something soon after. I picked 25% to 50 % because I know Bush wants this more than a new bike for Christmas. Air Assault!!

It doesn't matter to him one sniddley bit that we don't have enough troops. DRAFT! After all people, we are at war with every Muslim on the planet! :sarcasm:

[BurtWorm]

2. As hot as the Bushists are to have it, I think the odds are low.

Not 0, but low. They're having a difficult enough time keeping the services stocked for Iraq and Afghanistan, and they're losing support even for sanctions in the Security Council. They're going to have to be even hotter for it than they are now.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

3. There is a war going on right now.

A goodly portion of the entire region is aflame at this moment. The United States and Iran are both throwing Kerosene on the fire through surrogates.

It isn't so much "will there be a war with Iran" as "will the war with Iran escalate to direct confrontation"?

[meldroc]

4. Not especially likely.

First, the Repubs would have to retain both the House and Senate this fall, otherwise the Democratically controlled house of Congress would rebel, refuse to approve funding for such a war, otherwise create legislative obstacles.

Second, assuming Bush and the Republicans controlled Congress, they have to work with a military that's already fighting on two fronts, that's undermanned, underequipped, and flat out not ready to mount a full scale invasion. The military would be able to do airstrikes easily enough, but while that will cause damage to Iran, it won't break them. You need boots on the ground, and they're in short supply. On top of that, Iran's geography is tough - lots of mountains, which will make an invasion even more insanely difficult.

I predict lots of saber rattling, and even some airstrikes, probably of the scale of the raid on Libya in 1986, though maybe Bush will be able to muster more aircraft and more bombs. But a full scale war is out of the question.

[htuttle]

12. "even some airstrikes, like the Libya raid in '86"

If there is even one airstrike on Iran, the genie will be out of the bottle -- you watch. Libya in 1986 was isolated and relatively poor. Iran is about the complete opposite of that, plus they are already very pissed off.

Full scale war with Iran might be 'out of the question' for us, but if anyone thinks we can start a limited scale engagement with Iran and get away clean, they're not being realistic. One shot at Iran, and all hell will break loose, whether we planned on that or not.

[RaleighNCDUer]

16. And these guys in office are so good about being realistic --

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/08/23/us.iran/index.html

They create their own reality.

I could have told you weeks ago that whatever the iranians come up with it would not be enough to satisfy this government. They could offer to let 10,000 inspectors in, each with his own geiger counter, with full authority to carry off every bit of radioactive material they found in the country, and * would say that was insufficient.

Just like every offer Saddam made was insufficient. They want their war. And they are going to have it.

[Lasher]

5. I'm afraid Junior will attack Iran right before the November elections

Bush's job approval rating gained 33% and 14% from declaring war on “terror” and war on Iraq. Capturing Saddam gave him another 6%. Killing Al-Zaqarwi seems to be helping. He needs another approval-rating boost now more than ever, and he is talking of war with Iran. From past experience, it appears that two weeks before the November elections would be the most effective time for such an adventure.


http://zfacts.com/p/307.html

[RaleighNCDUer]

9. I, myself, have no doubt.

Not sure of the timing of it, and you may be right, but we will not just attack. They will attack, and we will respond, regretfully but with great conviction.

There will be a new, new Pearl Harbor, and in the flush of patriotism the draft will be instituted.

And even here, on DU, there will be people saying that everything has changed and we have to do what we have to do.

So what will it be? Iranian ballistic missiles attacking US bases in Iraq? A radiological weapon detonated in Manhattan? A small nuke in San Francisco harbor? Anthrax dusting in Atlanta? Whatever it is, it's got to be big, and able to be pinned on the Iranians.

[mike_c]

6. I don't know....

Israel's failure in south Lebanon has changed the equation a bit. I certainly think the administration WANTS a war with Iran, and Israel would also like to see Iran hurt militarily. However, I think even the raving lunatics in Cheney's office are beginning to understand how unlikely it is that an attack against Iran will produce any measure of success, and the blowback would be horrendous. I think they're beginning to ask themselves whether they want to start another world war, or at least a conflict that consumes much of the middle east.

[Jed Dilligan]

10. Land invasion seems improbable...

Bombing before November? Maybe 51-75%.

[saltpoint]

13. I don't think a Chuck Hagel or Dick Lugar would strike Iran.

But we're dealing with a coke-addled hellion made more miserable and volatile by the breadth of his own considerable failures.

So I went with the 26-50% range, hoping in my heart of hearts that SOMEONE gets through to the little fool that any further military strikes in the Middle East would be globally condemned and militarily risky.

[enigma000]

15. You mean ever, or the the near future?

I'm not sure the administration has the will to go war with Iran. After everything that has happened, they may not want any new projects like that.

But in 5 years? Things could change.